Mike Parson and the Myth of the "Safe Seat" in a Wave Election

Gov. Mike Parson (R-MO)

I've been trying to make sense of a lot of things when it comes to Joe Biden's campaign for president, and in particular why it is doing so well, but one of the bigger things I'm trying to understand is what impact it will have down-ballot.  Wave elections will frequently sweep out people in offices that weren't expected...except for when they aren't.  In 2006 & 2008, Democrats across the country were winning up-and-down-the-ballot, but some Republicans managed to escape despite showing competitive inklings in previous races.  Jim Gerlach, for example, nearly went down in 2004 while the Republicans were having a solid cycle, but still won in 2006 & 2008.

Gerlach's win was a result of him knowing that he'd be in trouble and preparing in advance.  Oftentimes the biggest losers in a wave are not the most obvious suspects, who would have been prepared regardless, but instead people who don't realize that they're vulnerable until it's too late.  Increasingly, as we discussed last week, this is the case for Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), someone who seemed certain to win a year ago and is now bordering on an underdog in her race.  And increasingly, I wonder if one of the biggest shocks of 2020 might happen in Missouri, where Gov. Mike Parson (R) is exactly the sort of figure who doesn't realize that he has the makings of a potentially-competitive race until it's too late.

Missouri is a pretty red state.  While it started the century as a place that Democrats could win in the right conditions, it has transformed to the point that in 2018, when the Democrats were winning virtually everywhere else, incumbent-Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) was ousted by an underwhelming Republican opponent.  But governor's races are different, and the Democrats still managed to win a statewide race in 2018 despite McCaskill losing-that was for the row office of State Auditor, where incumbent Nicole Galloway won a full term after having been appointed by Gov. Jay Nixon.

As a result, Galloway is the only Democrat in recent years to prove that she can, in fact, win statewide in Missouri, though for a more high-profile election she'd be the underdog...unless the Republican royally screwed up.  This appears to be what Gov. Mike Parson (R) is doing with arguably the biggest unforced error I've seen from a Republican not named Trump on the ballot this year.  Parson stated in an interview, when asked about whether schools should reopen this fall "these kids have got to get back to school...and if they do get Covid-19, which they will-and they will when they go to school-they're not going in the hospitals...they're going to go home and they're going to get over it."

This is unfathomably stupid on a variety of levels, both factually and politically.  First off, children can go to hospitals for Covid-it's not common, but it is certainly possible, and we have seen children be hospitalized as a result of Covid-19.  We also don't know the long-term effects of Covid-19.  Labs have shown that the illness can ravage not only the lungs, but also the kidneys, liver, heart, and brain.  Having this sort of long-term impact on children, in particular, could be especially risky because they have not finished growing & developing these organs in preparation for adulthood.  Also, there's the simple logic that we shouldn't be sending children into an environment we know to be dangerous unless there is no other option (which, with online learning, there is).

On top of that, though, is the fact that Parson is assuming it would only be the children that would be impacted by this disease, but that's not the case.  Teachers, administrators, school employees, janitorial staff, bus drivers...all of these people, who are more likely to be in upper age groups and therefore more at risk, would be exposed to Covid as a result of being in contact with these students.  This is on top of the fact that the children's parents, grandparents, and siblings would also be exposed by bringing the disease back to their homes.  With hospitalization rates for people in their 30's and 40's (the ages most of these parents are) increasing dramatically, this is courting disaster, and would certainly result in more death, increased hospital stays, and more permanent damage to people's long-term health.

State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D-MO)

The thing about Parson's comments aren't just that they are stupid & callous, they're also really easy to counteract and for people to understand that they're wrong in the context of an election.  People know that online learning isn't as good as in-person, but they also don't want to put their children & families in danger.  They also know that what Parson is proposing would do that, and he's doing so with little care for their own families.  People are pretty partisan, but put their child in mortal danger, and suddenly they're willing to look elsewhere.  And that's where Galloway comes in.  Galloway is a statewide-elected official (i.e. not a kook).  She might not be someone they want to vote for, but in the same way that Biden is winning over skeptical Republicans who might not have gone for Bernie Sanders but are willing to go for the more moderate Biden, Galloway could be a solution that these voters could live with for four years, even if they'd prefer a choice that isn't Parson or Galloway.

In a lot of ways, I'm reminded of the North Carolina Senate race in 2008 when it comes to Parson's situation.  Sen. Elizabeth Dole was running a closer-than-expected race, but her numbers had been solid throughout the summer & she was widely-expected to beat State Sen. Kay Hagen until about October.  What Dole didn't realize (and hat we only realize now in hindsight) is that Hagen A) was a better campaigner than she was and B) was in a position where people were choosing between two options they didn't mind, rather than between one that they liked & one that they didn't.  When Dole ran an ad essentially calling Hagen an atheist (despite the latter being a devout Presbyterian & a Sunday School teacher) Hagen pounced-she knew this was the unforced error she was looking for, and started attacking Dole for running a negative campaign.  Dole couldn't react fast enough-Hagen had found a weakness, and Dole had no idea that her campaign was so vulnerable, and ended up floundering.  While Barack Obama won North Carolina by a percentage point that year, Hagen beat Dole by 8-points, despite Dole being up by 8 as late as September of that year.

Parson might still win.  He's up by about 11-points right now in most polling.  But he's also not well-known to the Missouri voters (he succeed to the governor's mansion, and so this is his first time not running for a row office in the state), and Galloway is a solid on-paper candidate.  This is the sort of opportunity, if she takes it, that minority party opponents dream of in an election-something that will get people to consider splitting their ticket.  Parson has broken the cardinal rule in a wave election favoring the opposite party-he assumed he was safe enough that he could say anything.  We'll see in the next few months if that costs him.