Can the House Democrats Reach 100 Women in November?

In the next two weeks, Joe Biden will make the first consequential choice of his hypothetical presidency since deciding to run in the first place: who will be his running-mate?  The Democratic nominee has guaranteed that he will pick a woman as his running-mate, and there has been added pressure on Biden to pick a woman of color (though it's worth noting that he has not committed to doing so even though he's heavily implied he's headed in that direction).  As a result of this, I wanted to focus over the next week on three articles exploring women, specifically those running for public office, and what the 2020 elections might mean for their ambitions.  Today I want to talk specifically about what once was thought to be a stretch goal that might take another ten years, and what now could be achievable-getting 100 Democratic women elected to the House of Representatives.

Currently, there are 101 women in the United States House of Representatives (the Congress actually lost one when Rep. Katie Hill resigned and was replaced by a man), with 88 of them Democratic women.  This is not a far reach for the Democrats, in my opinion, to get to a truly historic number of 100 women in their caucus this fall; made even more impressive since this Congress is the first time, period, that both combined parties had reached that 100 marker in the House (the Republicans aren't pulling their weight, an article for another day).  My question here is whether or not they'll be able to net at least 12 new seats for the next Congress, and how they would do that.  We'll break this down into the three ways that women can achieve this number: winning the nominations in open seats, holding their current seats, and picking up Republican seats.

State Sen. Rita Hart (D-IA)

1. The Open Seat Democrats

The best way that either party can increase the amount of women they have in office is by nominating them for safe seats.  This is something that Democrats have done better than Republicans in recent years (in 2018, Republicans only elected one woman, Carol Miller, to an open seat they held despite there being 27 such seats, whereas Democrats split it down-the-middle with 9 of 19 such seats).  This year there are nine Democratic open seats, so considerably less room for the Democratic women to make gains than they did last cycle.  Of the nine, three are women who are retiring (so there's the risk of a net loss here), but Democrats have already nominated women to three of these seats (NM-3, IA-2, & CA-53) though two of these are under unusual circumstances: Iowa's seat is competitive, so there's no guarantee that this stays blue & thus elects a Democratic woman, and CA-53 is a runoff between two Democratic women, so definitely a win by a female Democrat, but we don't know which one.  Three seats we don't know the nominee yet (HI-2, MA-4, and WA-10), but in Washington it seems probable that 1-2 Democratic women will advance in the all-party primary (Massachusetts it is possible but a bigger stretch, and Hawaii it seems unlikely).

All-in-all, then, we would be looking at maybe a net of 1-2 seats based on this, but for the fact that there are two women guaranteed to make it to the House, albeit in a non-traditional fashion.  Marie Newman beat Rep. Dan Lipinski in the primary for his Illinois House seat, a safe blue seat, and Nikema Williams has been nominated to replace the late-Rep. John Lewis, and likely will win via a special election later this fall.  As a result, assuming Rita Hart wins in Iowa (and that Carolyn Maloney doesn't end up losing her close primary in New York), my guess is the Democrats would get to +3 in terms of net Democratic women from safe seats this cycle.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-VA)

2. Holding Their Current Seats

Obviously the second easiest way for Democrats to hold their contests is to reelect the 85 women they already have in office who are running for another term.  Most of these women would be considered safe, a longer list as a result of Biden's strength at the top of the ballot; I'd wager that some women like Cheri Bustos, Donna Shalala, Angie Craig, & Haley Stevens might have been vulnerable in a different environment, but for now are probably safe.  That leaves us with 11 or so (Abby Finkenauer, Kendra Horn, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Lucy McBath, Cindy Axne, Lauren Underwood, Elissa Slotkin, Xochitl Torres Small, Lizzie Fletcher, Elaine Luria, & Abigail Spanbarger) women that are in genuinely competitive races this fall.

A lot of these women it'll depend on whether or not Biden is truly winning by a lot or a little come this fall, and how willing they are to have crossover voters in their districts.  Some of these women, despite strong challengers, are almost certainly going to have Biden running in districts they'll win.  Two (Mucarsel-Powell, Fletcher) of these women are in districts Hillary Clinton won and five (Finkenauer, Axne, McBath, Underwood, Luria) are in Hillary Clinton lost by less than 4-points (i.e. prime candidates for Biden to pick up if he continues to outperform 2016); honestly only Luria & Finkenauer seem particularly vulnerable of these seats, though all are worth keeping an eye upon.  Horn, Torres Small, Spanbarger, and Slotkin are in districts Trump won by more than 4-points, and would be expected to win again, so they're the most worth looking into.  Let's assume that at least two of these six most vulnerable female incumbents lose (though none is a lost cause yet) and go back to a Net +1, which would mean the Democrats would need 11 pickups to win the House.

State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-TX), one of the most promising
challengers for the Democrats this fall

3. Pickups

Pickups can be broken down into expected pickups, true tossups, and some Lean R seats that look increasingly plausible if Biden wins.  There are four women that I anticipate will win in November right now, and the Republicans are underdogs.  Thanks to mid-decade redistricting, both Kathy Manning & Deborah Ross are assured wins in North Carolina, and though they'll have to win open Republican seats, the dynamics (Biden is likely to win both) of TX-23 and GA-7 make me think that Gina Ortiz Jones & Carolyn Bourdeaux are both headed to victories this fall, even if they could be victims of redistricting in two years.  This gets the Democrats to an expected net of about +5, seven short of the 100 Democratic Women goal.

Of GOP-held seats, I'd wager that there are about seven that are true tossups, where the Democrats have just as good of shot as the Republicans (CA-25, IN-5, MO-2, NE-2, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24).  These seven seats, if the Democrats were to win them, would nearly get to a net of twelve-all but TX-22 has a Democratic woman as the challenger.  But if the Democrats actually want to get to 100, even if they clear most of these pickups, they're either going to need to sweep their incumbents or pickup a couple of seats where the Republicans are currently favored.

That 100th Democratic woman would likely come out of one of the following districts: AR-2, AZ-6, CO-3, IL-13, KS-2, NC-8, NJ-2, NY-2, NY-24, OH-1, and PA-1, 11 seats where the Republicans are favored to win but where the Democrats could score an upset either by carrying Biden's coattails (PA-1 and NY-24 are both districts Hillary won & I would anticipate Biden will as well) or if Trump starts to implode in key suburban areas across the country.  The challengers in these seats need Biden to stay as strong as he currently is, or even get a little bit wider national lead, in order to compete, but if Biden is winning the popular vote by 8+ points, they become races worth watching.

All of this is to say that this could be an achievable goal for the Democrats this cycle, but a stretch one.  The Democrats have the makeup, if they have a very good night to get to 100 Democratic women in the House, but it will require a combination of luck and a very strong national pull on their side.  The infrastructure is there though if the Democrats have a good night.

State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-KS)

What about the Senate?

Obviously achieving 100 Democratic women in the US Senate is never going to happen, but the next real goal here would be to have at least 20 Democratic women in the US Senate, and that is, similar to the House, theoretically achievable but a stretch goal.  There are 17 Democratic women in the US Senate, and while Jeanne Shaheen & Tina Smith started the cycle as potentially vulnerable, none of them appear to be at risk of losing reelection at this point.  With only one open Democratic seat in the Senate (New Mexico) selecting a male nominee for the Dems, they'll have to win all of these seats based on defeating incumbents.

Two Democratic women are running in Senate races that I'd rate as a tossup: Theresa Greenfield (IA) and Sara Gideon (ME).  Neither of these seats is a foregone conclusion, but in order to get even close to twenty seats, the Democrats will have to take both of them.  The last seat will be a challenge.  The only state that polling currently shows Biden might win that has a female challenger is Texas, where Democrat MJ Hegar is under-polling compared to Biden; not a lost cause race, but one that the Democrats have a disadvantage.  The same could be said for Kansas, where the Democrats are praying for controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach to win, but private polling shows Rep. Roger Marshall is the likely winner of the primary.  I'd argue that Democratic State Sen. Barbara Bollier could beat Marshall considering the uniquely anti-Trump aspects of Kansas (a very white, but quite college-educated state, a demographic Trump has lost ground with in 2020), but Bollier needs an inside straight to win, and I doubt the national party will agree with my assessment that this is competitive regardless of the GOP primary results if Kobach isn't the nominee.  Obviously I need to at least mention Amy McGrath and her tens of millions, but if we find out that the Democratic women have 20 senators come November, it's likely due to Greenfield, Gideon, and some combination of Hegar/Bollier.