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| Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R-AL) |
While there are a lot of people destined to regret their role in the Trump administration in the coming years, perhaps no one better exemplifies that Trump destroys everyone he touches quite like Jeff Sessions. Four years ago Jeff Sessions was a major player in the US Senate, a likely future Chair of the Senate Armed Services committee, and one of the most prominent early supporters of then-Republican nominee Donald Trump. Sessions, however, watched as Trump humiliated him while he was Attorney General, was forced out after just two years, and now couldn't win back the nomination for a seat he held for over two decades. Sessions' career in politics is surely over now, though it remains to be seen what will happen with his primary opponent, Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville is heavily favored to beat incumbent-Sen. Doug Jones (D) in ruby red Alabama, though Tuberville doesn't come unscathed, with allegations of improprieties with his hedge fund and accusations that he didn't properly handle the punishment of one of his players for raping a 15-year-old girl. Whether it's Tuberville or Jones who ultimately wins, though, Jeff Sessions leaves this race as the biggest loser.
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| MJ Hegar (D-TX) |
Despite two close calls in the past month, the DSCC got every nominee they were hoping for in 2020, as last night MJ Hegar, an Air Force major who lost a close House race in 2018, became the nominee over State Sen. Royce West. West ran to Hegar's left and got backhanded support from Sen. John Cornyn (R), who clearly preferred running against West rather than Hegar. Hegar now has the gargantuan task of taking on Cornyn, a terrific fundraiser who has done something few Republicans in competitive Senate races in 2020 have done: crushed his opponent's fundraising. Hegar will play catchup in the most populous Senate race in the country, though she doesn't go into this with no hope. Joe Biden has led in multiple polls in Texas, an increasingly plausible swing state, and Cornyn's poll numbers show him leading, but with lots undecided. The major question here is whether or not Hegar can catchup and take advantage of a potentially competitive race.
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| State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-ME) |
In Maine, House Speaker Sara Gideon, also endorsed by the DSCC, won her primary, though by a much larger margin than Hegar. Gideon is now poised to run in one of the most important and competitive races in the country, against long-time Sen. Susan Collins (R), the most moderate Republican in the Senate, but one who has come under intense scrutiny since she cast a vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. That decision also gives Gideon, who out-earned Susan Collins in fundraising by $5 million last quarter, a lot of money. During the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, a PAC was formed to put pressure on Susan Collins to vote against Kavanaugh, raising $4 million for Collins' eventual opponent, but only if she voted for Kavanaugh (if she voted against him, the money would've been returned). That cash is now Gideon's, giving her a huge influx of money after already demolishing Collins in the last quarter. ActBlue, the fundraising platform for the Democrats, had an additional $1.5 million raised for the eventual nominee in Maine, so Gideon will get that money too (MJ Hegar will gain access to some $400k through a similar fundraising technique). This method of fundraising is fast-emerging, and potentially something that both parties need to look into in the future, making a point to run on beating an opponent even before they have a candidate, as obviously this is $5.5 million that Collins is going to struggle to match against Gideon in the coming weeks.
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| Kathaleen Wall (R-TX) |
Vanity runs for the House and Senate aren't uncommon-in fact, in the era of Citizens United they're practically the norm. But it's worth noting that while there are examples of them working (JB Pritzker, Dave Trone), that's no guarantee, and this was the case in Texas-22, where wealthy self-funding candidate Kathaleen Wall (her husband made a fortune through a computer company), has spent $12 million over two different cycles to win a seat in Congress...and still lost last night to a candidate that she'd outspent by 21x what her opponent Sheriff Troy Nehls expended. This is pretty paltry, even by the standards of self-funders, and one has to assume that Wall will hang it up after two embarrassing defeats. She also has hobbled Nehls for the general, particularly in terms of cash reserves; Nehls' opponent in the general election, Sri Preston Kulkarni, has over $1 million cash-on-hand (Nehls' coffers were depleted to roughly $35k after his battle against Wall). This is a district that Donald Trump won by 8-points in 2016, but it's one of the many fast-moving Texas suburban districts that seem to quickly be transforming blue; Beto O'Rourke only lost here by 0.6-points in 2018. Nehls being the nominee rather than Wall who would be able to match Kulkarni's fundraising herself, moves this district into tossup territory.
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| School Board Trustee Candace Valenzuela (D-TX) |
O'Rourke did lose TX-22 in 2018, but won two districts that were on the ballot last night, and in both districts the Democrats favored the more liberal candidate in the primary. In TX-10, attorney Mike Siegel defeated Dr. Pritesh Gandhi to win this district's nomination for the second time. In 2018, Siegel was outspent 4:1 against incumbent Rep. Michael McCaul, but only lost by 4-points. While Siegel has been out-raised by McCaul this cycle, it hasn't been by the same margin, and he'll now have a few months without a competitive primary to go against him. With Joe Biden looking to at least match O'Rourke in the polls (and possibly beat him), O'Rourke's win here (even if it was just by two-tenths of a percentage point) makes this a race worth watching.
An even more promising option for the Democrats is in TX-24, which O'Rourke won by 3.5-points, and which the Democrats nearly won (Republican Kenny Marchant won by just 3-points), despite their candidate being a nonentity in 2018. Last night's primary put the more conservative (but also more gaffe statement-prone) Kim Olson, a former Air Force Colonel, against School Board Trustee Candace Valenzuela. Valenzuela had wracked up some heavy-hitting endorsements from the party (Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and perhaps most crucially, Emily's List), but Olson had won statewide and had out-raised Valenzuela. The Democrat will face Beth van Duyne (whom, it's worth noting she has been beating in the primary game despite a competitive primary) in what is probably one of the Democrats' best opportunities to pickup a contest in November.
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