What is Donald Trump Up to in California-25?

President Donald Trump (R-FL)

Trying to attribute logic to Donald Trump's decisions, particularly when it comes to his political acumen, is less like playing 3-dimensional chess and more like playing the board game Mouse Trap; you know there's some meaning in there, but it's almost certainly broken.  That's what I keep coming back to with Trump's recent tweets about the California special election, which concludes tomorrow (if you haven't voted, make it a priority-there's still time!).

The California special election has been under-reported on in the era of Coronavirus, but it could become a major news item in the next week.  The opening is a result of Rep. Katie Hill's (D) resignation last November amid a scandal involving nude photos of her leaking during her divorce proceedings, and allegations of inappropriate relationships with her subordinates.  The seat went for Hill by a solid 9-point victory in 2018, and it also went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 7-points (though for Gavin Newsom by a surprisingly slim 3-points).  This is, as a result, an historically Republican district that has looked much bluer in the past few months.  The Democrats would have started, after Hill's resignation, as the favorites for this seat (a congressional district Joe Biden would expect to win in November), and I said as much when Hill initially resigned.

But campaigns and candidates matter, and it does look like the Democrats are in a precarious position right now in California.  Based on early voting returns, the Republican (Navy veteran Mike Garcia), is looking like he will win the election, though it's still close enough that he can't take anything for granted.  Garcia has run a very good campaign, and the Democratic nominee (State Rep. Christy Smith) has made some unforced errors, with some attack ads deemed "unfair" by local press.  California is unique in that absentee ballots just need to be postmarked by Election Day (which is May 12th)-they don't need to arrive by that date like they do in many states, so it's possible that Smith can close the gap today and tomorrow.  But it's definitely a race the Republicans should be optimistic about, even confident.

So why is Donald Trump repeatedly claiming that the election is rigged?  He has erroneously claimed the race is "rigged," multiple times on Twitter, specifically accusing Gov. Gavin Newsom of trying to fix the election for Smith by opening more polling places in Democratic areas (it's worth noting that Newsom has opened additional polling places in Republican-leaning areas, but Trump doesn't seem as concerned about that).  This is odd behavior, considering the President could use a win right now.  Garcia picking up a district would be the first time that a Republican running for federal office has picked up a seat won by Hillary Clinton since 2016.  The closest they've gotten was Rep. Ami Bera in 2018, and he still won by 10-points.  A Garcia win would be a great talking point for Trump, particularly after the Democrats won a high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race last month.

State Rep. Christy Smith (D-CA)

So why is he doing this?  From an electoral standpoint, this almost certainly has the potential to backfire.  Keep in mind that, unless turnout becomes lopsided, Garcia needs at least a few voters who went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Katie Hill in 2018 to go his way, and the best way to do that would be for Trump to keep his distance from Garcia.  Smith can (and definitely has been) using Trump's tweets to embolden her supporters.  Even if they don't like her the way they did Hill, they might be reluctant to back a guy who seems to have Trump's support.  But here's where Trump's strategy might come into play.

Because the reality is that Garcia, even if he wins, is going to struggle in November.  Though it'll be a rematch (the primary for November has already occurred), Smith will be able to campaign with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, and as I said above, Biden should win this district.  Smith therefore has a decent shot of picking this seat back up in November.  I don't do a lot of race ratings, but I'd wager that this seat moves to "Leans D" if Smith wins this week (as she'd be the incumbent in a nominally blue district), but stays "Tossup" if Garcia does for this reason-Smith should be able to ride Biden's coattails to a second chance in November.  So ultimately, while this could matter (it's hard to reverse the results of a recent special election, so Garcia will have history on his side), there's not a lot that Trump has to gain from one more Republican in Congress, pragmatically speaking.

But his line-of-attack could be seen as a precursor for November.  I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it doesn't take a stretch-of-the-imagination to assume Donald Trump, who has spent much of his presidency defending obvious falsehoods (from coronavirus deaths to his inauguration crowd size), is going to say the election was "rigged" if he loses in November.  California-25 is a unique place to do this because it's a state that usually takes several days to count close elections.  Because so many ballots are cast by mail, and because the ballot doesn't need to be postmarked until Election Day, close elections tend to be called days after the election, sometimes weeks...with Democrats almost always gaining because they tend to vote later in the state.  In 2018, Democrats picked up seven US House seats in California, with the election taking place on November 6th.  However, they weren't all declared on that day.  Harley Rouda was on November 10th, Josh Harder was on November 13th, Katie Porter was on November 15th, Gil Cisneros was on November 17th, and TJ Cox was on November 28th; of the pickups, only Hill and Mike Levin were declared winners or received concessions within 24 hours of the election.  In most of these contests, the Republicans were leading on election night by relatively solid margins (over 1000 votes), to the point where Cox's opponent David Valadao was declared the victor by the AP on Election Night even though he ultimately lost.

You see where I'm going with this right?  It will be easier for Trump to sell his "stolen election" bid even if there's no signs of impropriety (and there aren't any at this juncture) in a place like California. Garcia, even if he loses, will lead by the end of ballot-counting tomorrow night.  Smith has done the best with ballots that have been turned in the past few days, particularly if she's been able to gain from Trump's flashlight on the election, and if she wins we probably won't know until Friday at the earliest.  If Trump can successfully cast doubt on Smith's victory (should she win), he'll have done so as a dry run for November (as, keep in mind, an increase in mail-in ballots may ultimately mean we won't know the election night winner right away in a close contest).  If she doesn't win, he can just claim "I knew Garcia would win all along-look how much my tweets helped him!"  It's not exactly clever like a fox (because ultimately he might be causing Smith to win the seat), but we shouldn't be ignoring Trump's a-characteristic behavior and chalk it up as just "Trump being Trump."