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| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
But the thing that really gets me is how people seem to think "he'll need a really good VP choice" in order to balance him out, and to that, I will use a word that Biden has basically copyrighted at this point: malarkey. There's still a chance that Biden is not the nominee (I think we've swung a little bit too far in the opposite direction into assuming Biden is the nominee, personally, though he's heavily favored), but if he is the nominee, Biden's choice for his running-mate will mean as much as it did for Barack Obama or Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan-it won't ultimately matter.
People vastly, vastly overestimate how much a candidate can help a ticket. The last presidential candidate who definitely gained from their choice of a running-mate was John F. Kennedy, who likely won a state like Texas because of LBJ (Kennedy's win is still insane if you look at how close the race was-20 states were decided by less than 5-points in that election). Other candidates have been hurt by their choice in running-mate (John McCain comes to mind), but I don't think a remotely sizable amount of votes/electoral college ballots changed because of these people. One could argue George W. Bush and Donald Trump gained by picking people more experienced than them, but that would have just as likely happened had Bush picked someone like Tom Ridge or Bill Frist, and the same with Donald Trump had he picked Chris Christie. The reality is that while you might like the vice presidential nominee more than the top of the ticket and the vice presidential choice can be consequential (again, another case where LBJ stands out for obvious, if morbid, reasons), voters ultimately choose whom they will vote for for president based on the top of the ticket, because at some point we do understand that the only true power of the VP is that they need to have a pulse.
But I have been asked by multiple people to do some sort of ranking of Biden's options, and I love political list-making so I'm giving in here, I'm just admitting right now that I'm picking people based on what I think will be the Biden's team (and the media's influence on) Biden's choice, rather than selecting someone who I think will be of consequence to Biden.
Assuming he's the nominee, Biden is going to be looking for a few key attributes in his running-mate, some more "required" than others. He will want someone who comes from a swing state-this doesn't usually help but might be worth a point or two. He'll want geographic balance, preferably from a swing area of the country. He will want someone that who, if they win, will not put their seat in the hands of a Democrat (so no senators from states with Republican governors and no Democratic governors with Republican LG's). He'll want to find a way to shore up, if possible, some of his biggest detriments in the primary, specifically progressives and Latinos, or make a double play (similar to Clinton/Gore) toward increasing his support among two areas he's done very well: black voters and college-educated women.
He's also going to probably pick a senator. Republicans mix up their running-mates quite often (recently George HW Bush, Jack Kemp, Dick Cheney, & Mike Pence all came without having served as senators), but Democrats almost always pick senators. In the past 70 years, only two Democrats have picked someone who wasn't a senator: George McGovern in 1972 (though his first choice, Thomas Eagleton, was a senator) and Walter Mondale in 1984...neither of which is a contest that Democrats want to emulate. Even longtime DC insiders like John Kerry & Hubert Humphrey (both similar in spirit to Biden) went with senators, despite the biggest asset of their candidacies in DC being they already had a leg-up on Capitol Hill, and a governor might have been a smarter choice.
Finally, there's two things I think Biden won't stray from at all. The above are all "nice-to-have's" but they aren't mandatory. However, I think Biden's age, and his stuttering issue (which some critics incorrectly confuse with signs of dementia) are going to be an actual issue in this choice, and so they're going to pick someone incredibly qualified to be president from Day 1. There will be no Dan Quayle, no Sarah Palin. Biden may pick someone that is youthful by comparison, but he's going to pick someone who will be sturdy, and presidential, with little risk of growing pains.
And secondly, he's going to pick a woman. People have talked about how Biden simply can't pick a "white man," but I think after four serious Democratic women ran this cycle, and after four years of Trump degrading women, and after Hillary came so close to winning in 2016, Biden will feel an intense amount of pressure to let a woman be part of his victory over Trump. I think, by-and-large, that the era of a same gender-ticket (at least for the Democrats) is over. This is why you'll see no men on this list-if Biden's the nominee, while he'll float names like Buttigieg & Booker & Castro, these will not be serious candidates. The nominee will be female.
A Couple of Notes: This is a list of who I think will be Biden's running-mate, based on what I listed above and some public comments. As a result there are a couple of names that I think are just-for-show right now in the public conversation. Elizabeth Warren's seat is going to go to a Republican, and she's not that much younger than Joe Biden-I don't think she'll be the nominee unless the race with Sanders gets really bitter and he needs to throw a very public bone to the left wing of the party. Secondly I'm taking Stacey Abrams off this list preemptively. Abrams' behavior since losing in 2018 has been odd-turning down what might well be her best shot at higher office (the 2020 Senate contests), but publicly asking for the VP nomination and stating publicly that she plans on being president (despite not running yet for the office). I think she would have been a great counter for Pete or Bernie, but Biden's going to need someone who is less of a wild card, someone who has held public office for longer, and so I'm keeping her off the list. Both of these names are going to be floated for the next few months, potentially seriously, but they'd be poor choices for Biden because they come with too much risk, and I ultimately don't think he'll pick them.
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| Attorney General Sally Yates (D-GA) |
Age at Election: 60
Previous Experience: Attorney General (2017), Deputy Attorney General (2015-17), US Attorney (2010-2015)
Swing State?: Yes-Georgia
Why It Could Be Her: Yates obviously brings with her a level of integrity that will complement the "not Trump" angle of the Biden campaign in a real way. She was one of the first people to speak truth-to-power to Donald Trump, and was fired for it, so her being on the ticket would be a way to really underline the differences between Trump & Biden. She comes from a swing state (Georgia), which is also something he'll be looking for; it's worth noting that Biden has name-checked Yates in previous conversations about whom he might select as his running-mate.
Why It Won't Be Her: Yates, unlike every other woman on this list, has not held elected office. It's very, very rare for either party to pick an electoral neophyte (the last time this happened was Sargent Shriver, hardly a ringing endorsement), mostly because there's no proof that her home state even likes her. Yates also risks putting too big of a middle finger to Trump voters who might be persuadable under the Biden banner.
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| Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) |
Age at Election: 63
Previous Experience: US House (2017-Present)
Swing State?: Yes-Florida
Why It Could Be Her: Demings has a unique profile for a relatively junior member of the House. She is a black woman who comes with a career in law enforcement (she served at one point as Orlando Police Chief), the first woman to lead the department. She's quickly made a name for herself in the House as both an impeachment manager and as a member of the House Intelligence/Judiciary committees, gaining a lot of press. Demings is from Florida (always a state you take any advantage you can get), and is strong on the stump.
Why It Won't Be Her: It is very, very rare that House members are successful running-mates. The last one to do so was James Sherman, who served as VP from 1909-12 under President Taft. There could be, as a result of her short time in the House, accusations that she isn't ready for the presidency, and that she wouldn't be a truly big asset in Florida because she hasn't proven she can win statewide. There's also the question of what Demings wants-she's a decent chance for a major chairmanship or leadership position in the House-would she prefer that to the glare of the White House?
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| Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
Age at Election: 49
Previous Experience: Governor (2019-Present), State Senator (2006-2015), State Representative (2001-2006)
Swing State?: Yes-Michigan
Why It Could Be Her: Michigan is at the top of the list of swing states that the Democrats are hoping to steal back from Donald Trump. It was the closest race against Hillary Clinton, and while it went for Whitmer in a big way in 2018, it didn't do so for other offices (witness Debbie Stabenow's less-than-impressive victory in the Senate contest). Biden may want to give himself a true home-field advantage by selecting someone who proved recently she can win the state by double digits, and her endorsement headed into the Michigan primaries indicates she'd be interested.
Why It Won't Be Her: Whitmer has relatively little experience on the national stage. She's only won once statewide (unlike someone like Amy Klobuchar or Maggie Hassan who have won a few times in swing states), and might not have the experience quite yet to hold the office of president, which is going to be an attack that Biden is going to want to decisively
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| Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) |
Age at Election: 62
Previous Experience: US Senator (2017-Present), Governor (2013-17), State Senator (2004-2010)
Swing State?: Yes-New Hampshire
Why It Could Be Her: For starters, Hassan is one of the few people that Biden has listed by name as a potential running-mate. She in a lot of ways is a good match for Biden-she's a steady, longtime politico (one of only two women to ever serve as both governor and senator), comes from a swing-y state, and someone who comes across as competent, but not flashy (Tim Kaine, Al Gore, and Joe Biden are all people who fit this description and were selected).
Why It Won't Be Her: I'd argue Hassan would be perfect for Joe Biden...if this was 2016. Hassan at the time would have been an ideal choice for Biden, but the bloom on her time-in-the-sun has started to set, and she hasn't shown the ambition in the Senate that seemed apparent in her in the governor's mansion (she didn't, for example, run for president this year when there might have been an opening for her to get into the race). Additionally, unless the Democrats were to beat Chris Sununu, her Senate seat would be vulnerable if she won since her governor is a Republican.
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| Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) |
Age at Election: 58
Previous Experience: US Senate (2013-Present), US House (1999-2013), State Representative (1993-99)
Swing State?: Yes-Wisconsin
Why It Could Be Her: Baldwin has won statewide twice in the state that pretty much every elections analyst says with a hushed breath-"Wisconsin." It's probable that if Baldwin could simply guarantee Biden a victory in the Badger State, she'd already be on the ticket (it's worth noting that Baldwin would be near certain to be a Bernie contender on the ticket, perhaps getting rite-of-first-refusal). While Democrats did very well in 2018 in Wisconsin (winning every statewide office on the ballot), Baldwin won by the most, getting a 10-point victory while Tony Evers squeaked out a victory. She's certainly someone that will be on everyone's lists come November, and she's quite liberal-easily palatable to wooing Bernie voters.
Why It Won't Be Her: Couple of problems here. First, she's single and her religion is "unaffiliated," both of which shouldn't be an issue, but could be (particularly considering Baldwin's sexuality-she's a lesbian-is going to be another "shouldn't be an issue" that the GOP will surely demonize). More importantly, Baldwin doesn't guarantee a win (Paul Ryan proved recently that putting someone from Wisconsin on the ticket doesn't help you win the state), and her seat would almost certainly go red. Tony Evers would have to call a special election for Spring of 2019, and Wisconsin Democrats are notoriously awful at showing up for special elections (see 2011, 2012, 2016, and 2019)
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| Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) |
Age at Election: 61
Previous Experience: Governor (2019-Present), US House (2013-19), State Secretary of Health (2004-07)
Swing State?: No-New Mexico
Why It Could Be Her: Lujan Grisham is another candidate who makes a lot of sense on paper for Biden. She's someone who has DC experience (she served in the House for six years), but is a statewide elected official, and a Latina (arguably the most important part of the Democratic voting bloc that Biden hasn't shown his strength with). Her short tenure as governor has resulted in her becoming a leader on women's reproductive rights and climate change, both issues that will dominate the first year of Biden's theoretical presidency, so he'd easily be able to put her out front on both issues.
Why It Won't Be Her: There's a reason that Democrats pick senators-they tend to be better at gaining flash and are battle-tested in the short time they'll be on the campaign trail. Lujan Grisham could be awesome, but she's undoubtedly the least known on a national scale for the Top 5, and Biden's going to want to go with someone proven as his running-mate considering the pressure on his age. She's also one of the only people on this list who hasn't yet endorsed Biden (perhaps because she'd also be a very good running-mate for Bernie).
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| Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) |
Age at Election: 60
Previous Experience: US Senate (2007-Present), County Attorney (1999-2007)
Swing State?: Yes-Minnesota
Why It Could Be Her: Klobuchar makes a lot of sense on paper. She was an early and critical endorsement for Biden (were it not for that Beto/Amy/Pete rally, one could argue that Biden wouldn't have had the Super Tuesday he ended up with), and she's got pretty much everything that Biden might look for from a candidate. She's from a swing state, one she's won decisively three times, she's appealing in the Midwest. She's smart, but not too flashy so she won't show up Biden on the campaign trail, and her seat won't go red if she abandons it-Democrats won the governorship here in 2018 so this is a risk-free Senate seat.
Why It Won't Be Her: Klobuchar is perhaps too safe of a choice. White and moderate, there's not a lot here that Biden doesn't already have. She'd be a smart choice, particularly if he's legacy-building (I think she also would have beaten Trump, and as a result would be someone that would be a legitimate presidential nominee in the future, as is often the fate of vice presidents), but it's safe. This is someone who quickly endorsed him, and if he want to make overtures to the Bernie wing of the party, Klobuchar isn't it.
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| Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
Age at Election: 52
Previous Experience: US Senate (2017-Present), US House (2013-17), Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2009-11)
Swing State?: No-Illinois
Why It Could Be Her: Duckworth is much more liberal than Klobuchar, so she would come with stronger options to woo the Bernie wing of the party. She's a woman of color, a veteran, and is a Democrat from a state with a blue governor, so again no risk of that Senate seat disappearing. She's also someone who has worked with Biden in the past (she was part of the Obama administration before running for Congress), and is young-she has two children under seven.
Why It Won't Be Her: Her age indicates someone that might want to wait a while to make a play onto the national stage. She's not from a swing state, and it's hard to see what she'd bring to the ticket other than experience. This ultimately wouldn't matter (because, again, the VP doesn't really have the capability to add much to the ticket), but if the team thinks they can gain from the VP, that could affect her chances. Ultimately I think Duckworth is a smart choice, but not the smartest choice for Biden, which is why she's third here, but like Klobuchar & Lujan Grisham, she is a real possibility.
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| Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) |
Age at Election: 56
Previous Experience: US Senate (2017-Present), California Attorney General (2011-17), District Attorney (2004-11)
Swing State?: No-California
Why It Could Be Her: I think if Biden picks the person he most wants to be his vice president, he'll pick Harris. The two have a clear admiration for each other (despite one testy debate, Harris and Biden's son Beau were close friends, and they know each other's families well). She's again a female senator from a state with a Democratic governor, so her seat isn't in jeopardy, and she's the most prominent black woman in American politics today. Considering Jim Clyburn, ultimately Biden's most critical endorsement, has publicly called for Biden to appoint a black woman as his running-mate, and the inarguable effect an increased African-American turnout might have on Biden's chances in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, it's very probable that Harris might be a smart head choice and heart choice. Harris is also ready from day one-this is a woman that pretty much no one would complain is "unqualified."
Why It Won't Be Her: The biggest debit is (unless the Bidens hold a grudge, and I don't think they do) the Bernie wing of the party. I don't think that they'll dismiss Harris, but her views on criminal justice are a bit more damning than someone like Duckworth or Stacey Abrams. Harris, though, is an easy call for Biden if he takes it-she's the expected choice for a reason, and I think in a lot of ways choosing her would resemble Obama picking Biden. He'd pick someone he thinks would be a good teammate, and not just a strategic investment.
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| Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) |
Age at Election: 56
Previous Experience: US Senate (2017-Present), Nevada Attorney General (2007-15)
Swing State?: Yes-Nevada
Why It Could Be Her: Because no one makes more sense than Catherine Cortez Masto as a running-mate for Joe Biden. She's Latina, the first Latina senator, a demographic that Biden has under-performed with. She's a woman, 22 years younger than Biden, but extremely qualified, with a career in both elected and government politics. She's from a state with a Democratic governor, so no risk on her Senate seat, but she's from a swing-y state, one that Biden under-performed in the primaries. She's also smart, but not someone who has a huge national profile that would be easy to exploit, and she's liberal-an easy concession to the Sanders wing with her views on marijuana, immigration, and climate change.
Why It Won't Be Her: Will Biden pick a relatively unknown backbench senator? Honestly, there are very few reasons not to go with Cortez Masto other than she's not super tested on the national stage, and that she's the DSCC Chair (which is a critical job, but one that you could easily toss to Chris van Hollen for the last few months of the year if Cortez Masto got chosen). Perhaps the biggest reason not to go with her is that Duckworth & Harris & Klobuchar have their own beloved corner of the party, but Cortez Masto doesn't have that kind of rabid fanbase yet....then again, neither did Tim Kaine and he got the slot.
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