(Worth Remembering: These are not reflecting my own personal tastes, just what I think Oscar will do. Also, I listed them alphabetically rather than in order of likelihood of nominations because...I wanted to. Let's go with that. Finally, I didn't do the Shorts & Documentaries this year because I didn't follow those categories at all and would basically just be copying other people's predictions, which felt disingenuous).
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Lowdown: This looks like the field. I was a bit hesitant to throw in 1917, but the Globes going full throttle for it (and BAFTA backing that up) made me pull this into a 9-wide field. I doubt movies with ardent but small fanbases (Knives Out, The Farewell, Uncut Gems) will be able to break through, though I could be wrong. It could happen that a shock snub sneaks its way in (Little Women, 1917, and Jojo Rabbit all feel on shaky ground), but I think this is the lineup.
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: I initially thought that Greta Gerwig might be able to make this list, considering the hoopla around a lack of women in the Globes' directing race, but I'm throwing her into sixth and putting in Sam Mendes instead as this is the sort of achievement the directing branch eats up. Gerwig could theoretically best Phillips, but don't you get the sense after a pair of Globes that Joker is a more serious threat in major categories that we realize? The other nominees feel pretty secure, though other names that make sense include the Safdie Brothers (Uncut Gems), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story-and Gerwig's romantic partner!), Pedro Almodovar (Pain & Glory), or James Mangold (Ford vs. Ferrari), but I'm guessing these five are the ones that break through.
Robert de Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Targon Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
The Lowdown: There's more viable names here than pretty much anywhere else. I'm skipping in this lineup Christian Bale (Ford vs. Ferrari) who scored a Globe & SAG citation, Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes, Globe nominee), Eddie Murphy (another Globes nominee for Dolemite is My Name), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems, definitely a critical darling), and Globes nominee Antonio Banderas (Pain & Glory), but I'm going to bet that with so many nominees out there that the films with the big fanbases get the citations, and as a result we see de Niro, & DiCaprio sneak into two of the gettable slots, and Egerton's relentless pursuit of the nomination (along with a Globe citation) gets him the last citation. But any of these ten men could be very happy on Monday, and yes we could well see an Oscar list with two SNL alumni on it.
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Renee Zellweger, Judy
The Lowdown: Unlike Best Actor, this race seems to be down to six women. Other names such as Awkafina (The Farewell), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), and Ana de Armas (Knives Out) have shown up throughout the season but don't have the momentum to make it with such a focused lens on six names (if one of them breaks through ala Tommy Lee Jones in 2007, it'll be Woodard). I'm betting on Charlize Theron (Bombshell) being the odd woman out, though I'd buy that she can best Nyong'o or Ronan (the other three feel set to me) if there's enough of a case that she's waited long enough for a third nomination (she's been snubbed a few times now). However, Bombshell had middling reviews compared to the other two vulnerable actors, and doesn't stick with you as long.
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: Unlike some of our previously-cited races, I'm going with the five frontrunners here. Pretty much every one of the also rans (Alan Alda, Willem Dafoe, John Lithgow, Song Kang Ho, Sam Rockwell) have missed with precursors and don't seem to have any sort of buzz, which is harder to pull out-of-a-hat in a shorter season. Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) got a shock SAG nomination for Just Mercy which could indicate more love than I would have assumed for that film, but I think that's just one of those random fluke SAG things that happen every year or two.
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
The Lowdown: Nicole Kidman (Bombshell) and Annette Bening (The Report) might make just as much sense as Bates, but after having seen all three of these performances, Bates has the more "traditional" path to a nomination with Oscar, and she hasn't been cited in 17 years so this feels like a good fit. Pugh hasn't shown up as much as one would assume this season, but unless they also go for Kidman & Bening, who else is there? Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) would be a threat in a different year, but she's already getting buzz for Marriage Story and has internal competition from Thomasin McKenzie. This could be a place where something really bizarre happens, such as Anna Paquin (The Irishman) or Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite is My Name), but I'm going to go with this relatively safe lineup. I also think that Robbie could totally end up getting cited for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood instead of Bombshell even though the latter has gotten more buzz this season, but I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is there.
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
The Lowdown: This feels like a pretty easy call. There's not really a lot of other contenders outside of these, save for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (which has been virtually ignored other than Hanks all season) and Hustlers (a populist hit, but one that will have to stick to J. Lo for its nomination). It's worth remembering now that at one point Avengers: Endgame was being touted as a theoretical contender for the Oscars, but that's completely out of the conversation at this point. If there had been any validity to it getting a Best Picture citation, this would have been where it could have shown that strength, as The Two Popes is a weak fifth slot option...albeit with seemingly no one ready to take it out. In hindsight, Ford vs. Ferrari going for original instead of adapted feels foolish as it totally could have gotten in here.
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Lowdown: I'm going to assume that Lulu Wang, who both wrote and directed The Farewell is going to have the slightest of edges over the (more traditional for the writing branch) Uncut Gems, and am predicting an upset as a result. Best Picture contenders Ford vs. Ferrari and 1917 shouldn't be discounted here, but both are more technical than writing achievements, and I feel like Knives Out is a big enough deal that it'll get to be cited somewhere (this is a good seed to throw to Rian Johnson, who will someday have a major contender at the Oscars if he keeps up his current streak).
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain & Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Truth or Justice (Estonia)
The Lowdown: We're down to just ten films, so there's a 50/50 shot at a nomination. Of the frontrunner movies, I honestly feel like Pain & Glory is particularly vulnerable (Pedro hasn't made it in a while), but will probably get into the lineup. If we're seeing something skipped here, it's a good reminder that both Hungary and the Czech Republic have Holocaust films, which are frequently cited in this category-either could make it in in a similar way to Never Look Away last year. The only film that doesn't seem like it'll leave is Parasite, which even if it doesn't win Best Picture is guaranteed a victory here considering its prestige & box office.
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
The Lowdown: I could easily see this one going a lot of different directions. Abominable is an original film that showed up in more conversations this year than expected, and could upend any of these (I think Dragon in particular is vulnerable, but pretty much anyone could be a surprise snub save for Toy Story 4). GKids has a plethora of contenders, and has been strong here before, but none of them stick out in a meaningful way. It's also possible they pull a 2017 and go with the random Blue Sky Studios contender, but Spies in Disguise has sort of just disappeared from discussion even with a high-profile pair of leads. The real question here, though, is if LAIKA is going to get its first win (a theory bolstered by that Globes victory) for its first high-profile flop.
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
The Lowdown: I kind of love the idea of Portrait sneaking in here. Word is that people adore the film (the ones who have seen it), and those kind of passion projects tend to sneak in somewhere. It has Joker (but from a cinematographer who has never been cited before) and The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto, an Oscar favorite but perhaps one who will be dinged for Netflix being its home) as its biggest competition, but occasionally you have to throw caution to the wind. In a different era Terrence Malick's A Hidden Life would be among the shortlist, but I think that if the Oscars go with someone unusual it'll be Portrait instead, so I'll favor that with my predictions.
1917
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: I'm going with five previous nominees in a year where there's a lot of room for new names. Rocketman came out too early for my guesses here, and Aladdin was critically maligned so I'm skipping that as well. They hate contemporary design so I'll assume Hustlers is out despite it being a pretty good case, and instead favor Joker and 1917, which are just up Oscar's alley. If there is a spoiler, it'll probably be Jojo Rabbit, which is a period Best Picture contender, which usually adds up to a nomination (even though this is no one's idea of showy work). Lastly, if it weren't for the television angle of it Downton Abbey would be an easy option here (grand British period work), but I think Oscar will be snobbish enough about giving an Oscar to television that they won't pick the film.
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: I'm going with the five showiest "editing" films of the Best Picture lineup here. Joker, Jojo, Little Women, or Marriage Story could easily sneak in here if there's more strength behind their nominations than I realize (ala Silver Linings Playbook a few years back), with Joker toward the top of the list, or perhaps Avengers: Endgame has more power than I'm assuming. The ACE nomination for Apollo 11 has people curious if we might finally see a documentary nomination here again (something that hasn't happened for a doc since Hoop Dreams in 1994), but I don't think it was a big enough film to make it.
Bombshell
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: The most eclectic branch in the Academy finally gets to five nominations this year, and so there's more room for craziness. Rocketman and 1917 are the films that probably should warrant consideration here, and surely make more sense than Maleficent, but I have a gut feeling that the branch that cares the least about whether it cites critically-maligned films will go for the movie that had the roughest go with the critics. One has to wonder if this will be the slam dunk for Bombshell that it should be if this is the lineup (considering Theron is basically a Visual Effect she looks so much like Megyn Kelly), or if Oscar will go for one of the Best Picture contenders, but that's a conversation for closer to the ceremony.
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: In a sane world this would be a battle between Ad Astra's space stations and Parasite's giant house, but the former has been silent all awards season (couldn't even get shortlisted for VFX) while the latter is too contemporary & effortless for such consideration. A more likely upset to this list would be Ford vs. Ferrari, as the recreations of those cars would totally make sense if the branch wanted to do something similar to what they did with Gravity a few years back. But this is a tough field to crack, and I can't really predict which one will go as a result (maybe Joker?), so I'm sticking with this lineup.
Avengers: Endgame
Gemini Man
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Lowdown: It's hard to tell how much the Oscars will want to award the de-aging technology, which got mixed reviews for a few films-it's entirely possible I'm betting on the wrong horse with Gemini Man and instead should go with something like Captain Marvel (though I feel like they'll say "been there, done that" since they already cited Avengers: Endgame) and so I'm going with this as an upset. 1917 would be a classy choice here, especially with Ad Astra gone, but with The Irishman already in the conversation I don't think the Academy will think they "need" the classy choice. Star Wars is vulnerable, but I don't think it's vulnerable enough that it'll actually miss, so I'm not predicting the franchise's first ever live-action shutout with AMPAS.
1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Motherless Brooklyn
The Lowdown: Speaking of Star Wars, this is the only other category that it could make it, and I'm going to predict a big upset by assuming John Williams misses here. The composer has been cited 51 times for an Oscar, but he has missed a couple times in the recent past for films that were dismissed by critics (Indiana Jones 4, The BFG), so it could happen. I'm instead favoring Motherless Brooklyn, which got a Golden Globes nomination for the Score and has a very distinctive musical styling (also, because there's at least one new name every year with Oscar, and all of my other predictions are Oscar repeats). Truly curious if Williams makes it instead of Brooklyn who wins here-could Thomas Newman finally get an Oscar?
"I'm Standing with You," Breakthrough
"Into the Unknown," Frozen II
"I'm Gonna Love Me Again," Rocketman
"Spirit," The Lion King
"Stand Up," Harriet
The Lowdown: Here's another big question-is Beyonce finally going to get in with Oscar after multiple attempts that went nowhere (she was Globe-cited for acting in Dreamgirls and her song Cadillac Records, and her song "Listen" was actually nominated by Oscar but had too many songwriters so she was cut from its list). I'm going to guess yes, though there's internal competition as The Lion King is the only film that has two songs shortlisted. If she misses, look for one of the documentaries to make the cut like Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am, and for Frozen II to randomly get the trophy for the Lopezs again (if Beyonce is nominated, I'm betting she's winning on sheer celebrity alone).
Sound Mixing1917
Ford vs. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: I would never stop laughing if Cats got in here (even though its Sound Mixing is arguably the worst part of the movie) thanks to it being a major musical. However, if Oscar is going to go for a musical it'll probably be Rocketman. Considering the bad taste that Bohemian Rhapsody left in a lot of people's mouths last year for winning in the Sound categories, though, I wonder if they'll skip musical biopics altogether this year and just go for this lineup, which is pretty respectable in terms of Oscar prestige.
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford vs. Ferrari
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Lowdown: The secret to predicting this category is to pick the four films in Mixing that have the most fighting/explosions, and cut the remaining one for another film with more fighting/explosions. That's what I did here, taking out Joker and putting in Avengers: Endgame. If Star Wars has more fans in Hollywood than it does on message boards, this would be a pretty easy choice as it's arguably more impressive than Avengers: Endgame, but I think the latter being the biggest film of all time will warrant it sneaking in here as well.
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