Why Cancelling Joe Biden Is Not an Option

State Rep. Lucy Flores with former VP Joe Biden

It has been a while since I've tackled a properly controversial topic on this blog, or at least a topic where I'm not entirely certain of my own position, but writing is about exploration, so we're going to do that today.  I have been following the news over the past week trying to understand exactly where the Joe Biden accusations were headed-is it going to end his trajectory as a likely frontrunner for the 2020 nomination?  Who would gain most from Joe Biden not being in the presidential race, and what sort of precedent would be set if Biden did, indeed, choose not to run for the White House?  These are vastly important questions for the 2020 race as you'll see below, but first I want to go over the facts, as they're important in dissecting this issue, perhaps the most important moment that will exist in the 2020 presidential primary.

Taking a look at some of the accusations that have been allotted to Biden over the past couple of weeks, a theme has emerged.  The most common refrain was Biden was more intimate than you would expect from a coworker or a not-very-close acquaintance; the actions on his part frequently involved him putting his forehead to another person's forehead in what (it appeared) was a moment of connection for Biden himself.  Most, if not all of the women who have come forward made a point of underlining that the actions made them feel uncomfortable, but that they didn't feel that Biden was being sexual.  As is the case in such situations, a number of women, including some who have been vocal in the sexual assault movement like Alyssa Milano, have come forward to champion Biden, who indisputably has a strong record when it comes to supporting victims of sexual assault, being the chief author of both the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act and later the Violence Against Women Act while he was in the Senate.  Biden has made a point of stating that he understands that you must keep up with changes in society, though other comments he has made publicly appear to contradict his remorse about the contact, making light of it.

There's a lot to unpack here, so first I want to say that I understand and hear the women who say that this made them uncomfortable.  I would assume if you weren't expecting it, Biden's doing these things would come across as crossing-a-line.  I am someone who generally doesn't hug people I don't know extremely well, and I understand that having a person in a position of power like a Vice President or US Senator do this is bad judgment on the part of Biden.

But I am also concerned about the "cancellation culture" that Biden is (potentially) enduring here, and don't think that this should disqualify him from being a presidential candidate for several reasons, some grounded in our current reality and some that should be grounded in any reality.  I want to start with the fact that basically every woman interviewed made a point of stating that they didn't feel that Biden's actions were sexual.  I don't want to discount anyone's stories, but I will share my own here-I've met Joe Biden on one occasion a little over a year ago, at a meet-and-greet when he came to speak during his book tour.  He's a very friendly man, at least some version of the public persona that has been skewered on Saturday Night Live appears to be accurate.  He, despite having me introduced as "John" called me "Johnny" twice, and gave me a shoulder hug as well as put his hand on my shoulder, leaned down similar to what others have said during conversation, and thanked me for coming.  While he didn't touch my forehead, it's clear that this is the way that he connects with people.  A man whose life has been haunted by tragedy (the death of two children and his first wife), he's someone who finds physical contact (a handshake, a hug, a shoulder grab) to be a way to make the best, instant connection with the people he's serving or hoping to serve.

I don't think that's right, but there's enough similarity between my physical contact during a short meeting and some of these stories to make me believe that it isn't nefarious, and I think considering that most of the people telling these stories say that it made them feel uncomfortable, but not sexual, that it's worth giving some benefit-of-the-doubt here.  We live in a culture of much-needed realignment when it comes to sexual harassment, as for too long we have let victims of harassment go without an ally in society.  But it's hard for me to group Joe Biden in the same company of Louis CK, Roy Moore, Ruben Kihuen, or even Al Franken.  There is no allegation of sexual harassment here, there is no allegation of retribution here.  Even after the accusations came forward from Lucy Flores (more on Ms. Flores in a second) Biden was quick to state that he admired her and was glad he supported her campaign.  If you look on the internet, arguably the most-cited photo of "inappropriate contact" for Biden involves him rubbing the shoulders of Stephanie Carter (wife of former Defense Secretary Ash Carter), but Ms. Carter has come forward stating Biden is an old friend, and that this wasn't unwelcome physical contact.  I don't know that I'm comfortable with writing off Joe Biden for something that, while probably not using good judgment at some points, didn't appear to be sexual or retaliatory at any point, and is so far removed from say, the repeated sexual harassment claims against Donald Trump (not to mention the rape allegations and the fact that he bragged about sexual harassment on camera) that it's hard for me to compare the two with any ease, or to put such an astronomically different standard for Democratic candidates than what is expected of Republican candidates.  Because the truth is, politicians like Joe Biden meet thousands, if not millions, of people during the course of their career, and if we're going to start disqualifying candidates based on actions that even the people complaining are not sexual, we're also going to surely be disqualifying Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, Ruth Bader Ginsburg...you get where I'm going here.

Because I'm going to be blunt here-there's a pragmatic aspect of defending Biden here-it's entirely possible that if he doesn't run for president, Donald Trump will win a second term.  In fact, I'd be willing to bet money on it, and this is coming from someone who is not currently supporting the Biden camp (I'm undecided, full disclosure, but Biden would be in 4th-5th place in terms of whom I'm actually considering casting my votes for).  This is because of two roles that Joe Biden plays in the Democratic nomination for president-as the favorite for the nomination and as arguably the greatest foil to Bernie Sanders.  Biden is, if you look at polls, a soft frontrunner in the race.  That number is sure to change, but let's use actual polls & facts rather than what you're seeing on your social media feed, and remember that a lot of the Democratic voters will not be Millennials and Gen Z voters who are dominant on social media, but likely still middle-aged boomers who are more moderate and less likely to talk about their political beliefs so far out...and who really like Joe Biden.  So his lack of entry in the race, if he were to be deterred to run, or if he came in in a weakened state, would be a very big deal, and reconstruct the race.

Sen. Bernie Sanders being sworn into the Senate by Biden

Biden, also, is perhaps the only candidate who seems assured to attack the second-place person in most polls, Bernie Sanders, because unlike someone like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren, he doesn't need some of Sanders' supporters to become a leader in the polls-he already is one.  And this is important because Sanders has both the most ardent fanbase in the Democratic Party, as well as a group of Democratic voters who will struggle to cast a vote for him after 2016.  There is a large pocket of "Anyone But Bernie" voters in the Democratic Party, but I'm going to be real here-without Biden in the race, I don't think that those candidates have a nominee to rally behind if Sanders remains in the close second place that he is in right now.  Without Biden in the race as a reliable candidate, it's near certain we'll see a repeat of the 2016 Republican Primary, where politicians all are reluctant to go after the frontrunner (Trump then, Sanders now) too hard because they want to be the candidate that can take some of his supporters when he's out of the race.  Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Gillibrand-what incentive will they have to get out of the race if they're all hovering around a distant second place with Sanders to run against, and like 2016, voters who simply are anti-Bernie won't know whom to rally around to strategically give him or her the best chance to take out their least favorite candidate?  I have said many times in the past year, it wasn't Hillary Clinton who was the best hope of beating Donald Trump-it was Jeb Bush, arguably the only Republican who could have rallied the anti-Trump voters if other candidates had actually seen the writing on the wall (he was, let's remember, the only candidate other than Ben Carson who led Trump for any length of time in the race).  Biden in the race gives any easy option for that-he is the safe, Jeb Bush-style choice, and unlike Bush, he'd likely be smart enough to realize the situation and keep his lens on Sanders rather than biding his time in hopes that Sanders would turn out to be a fad.  As a result, Bernie Sanders benefits more than virtually any other person by Joe Biden not running for president, and it's eyebrow-raising that the most prominent woman coming forward against Biden is Lucy Flores, a backer of the Bernie Sanders campaign in 2016, and someone whose political career has fallen so much after two high-profile losses that likely the only way she could stage a comeback would be with Sanders' strong push (perhaps in his own administration).  I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it seems "convenient" (that's about as charitable of a word as I'm willing to use) that a key figure in the Sanders camp is speaking out against arguably the biggest threat to Sanders getting the nomination in 2020.

And I'm going to say this now, and likely dozens of times in the next year-I see no evidence that Bernie Sanders can get a Democratic coalition together that will actually beat Donald Trump in the presidential primary.  Lest we forget, just this past week Republicans pulled off a narrow win in Wisconsin, arguably the most important state in the country next year, and could do so again in 2020. Sanders has turned off a number of voters, particularly women and African-American women, who might vote for him but would surely not campaign for him, and that's probably not enough to win next year.  Donald Trump's position in the electoral college is weakened, but it's still pretty strong.  All he needs is to win one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan, and the Democratic nominee is going to have to trod into much redder territory like Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina in 2020 to be able to win the White House.  It seems likely that those Midwestern voters, at least enough to matter, will struggle with voting for a man who describes himself as a "Socialist" and who is most associated with a "cranky old man" persona (and whom many of them still blame for Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016), someone who has been more reluctant than any other candidate in the race to adapt to changes in the dynamics of a campaign, or even to change his stump speech.  I'm not saying a Democratic candidate can't win without sweeping MI/WI/PA, but I am saying that a candidate who makes it harder to win those states should probably be disqualified as they're the best path to winning in 2020.

So all of this is to say, I'm not cancelling Joe Biden both on the merits of the current accusations nor on the political reality of what cancelling Joe Biden would mean at this point in the race.  It's probable that even if he ultimately isn't the nominee, Biden has to run for president to stop Bernie Sanders.  So before you cancel Joe Biden, remember that by doing so you may well be reelecting Donald Trump in the process.  Maybe you can live with that being on your conscience, but I can't.