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| Rep. Diane Black (R-TN) |
In fact, despite us having been on a seemingly endless loop of primaries the past few months, there are a still a number of states outstanding that have not conducted their primaries, and while we look more heavily at the general elections this November, it's worth remembering that some of the most critical races on the map remain primaries, and so as a result I figured I'd count down the twelve most important primaries still taking place in the coming weeks.
Three Quick Caveats: OH-12 is a special election, rather than a primary, otherwise the tightening in that race, and the question mark over whether or not the Democrats might end up only needing a net of 22 seats this fall, would surely make it a Top 5 contest. Additionally, these are ranked by my level of interest in the results, not necessarily (entirely) based on competitiveness, though a tight race is obviously going to up the interest.
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| Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) |
It is entirely possible this race isn't competitive at all. A safely blue seat, the Democratic Primary is tantamount to winning the general election, and Rep. Darren Soto, even though he's on his first term, is a longtime fixture in the state party (he was in the state legislature for many years), and is scandal-free. The problem here is that former Rep. Alan Grayson is running for his old seat, and his unlimited pockets (plus solid name recognition) could pose a challenge for Soto, particularly since Grayson's running to his left. Grayson is a persona non grata in most corners of the Democratic Party, and assuredly Nancy Pelosi doesn't want to have to count on him being part of her equation come January, but despite being the left's Donald Trump, there's a certain subset of the party that appreciates his bombast and "consequences be damned" approach to governance. I think that if this was genuinely competitive Pelosi might figure out a way to funnel money to this race, which hasn't happened yet, but Soto running negative ads has to be a sign of worry for the party that Grayson might pull a Cynthia McKinney and win back his old seat.
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| HHS Sec. Donna Shalala (D-FL) |
Despite mainstream publications freaking out about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez besting Joe Crowley, somehow signaling the left has their own Tea Party to worry about, by-and-large the DCCC has gotten the candidates they've wanted this cycle, and even when they haven't, it wasn't at the expense of a big name (other than Crowley, the only major candidate loss that comes to mind is Brad Ashford to Kara Eastman, arguably the only race this year where a primary decided who would be favored in the general). That could change in FL-27, where former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala is running for the open Republican seat, despite being 77 years old and a member of the Clinton administration, a time period that many modern Democrats consider too centrist. Shalala should win this handily, but a closeness in the race would indicate that Ocasio-Cortez might not be a fluke, as most of Shalala's prominent challengers are running to her left.
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| Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) |
Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty running for his old seat was arguably the RGA's biggest coup this cycle. A guy with huge name recognition, he's the most recent Republican to win statewide in the Gopher State and will be a formidable challenger in the general election...provided he survives the primary. For weeks now, I've been wondering if Pawlenty might under-perform Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson here, and while he still leads, almost all of the actual gains in the electorate are coming for Johnson, not Pawlenty. What makes this a huge question mark is Donald Trump; Trump has taken to inserting himself into primaries to support people who have been loyal to him, and that's certainly not Pawlenty, who was a frequent critic of the president in 2016 while Johnson heartily supported him. Though we're only two weeks from the primary, a late endorsement from Trump for Johnson might be a big coup for the commissioner, as Trump remains popular with the GOP even if his numbers are under water overall in Minnesota.
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| Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D-MN) |
This might partially be on the list because it's local and I am particularly interested in Minnesota politics, but the fight for Rep. Keith Ellison's open seat is worth noting as it throws together two different sections of the Democratic Party. The leading candidates are State Rep. Ilhan Omar and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (State Sen. Patricia Torres Ray is also running, and could play spoiler, but seems to be clearly in the bronze position). Omar is a first-term representative, but has become a rising celebrity in the Democratic Party, appearing on the cover of Time and in a Maroon 5 music video; her election would be a huge moment and make her the first Muslim woman elected to Congress. Kelliher, however, is a longtime fixture in the Democratic Party who has decades of experience despite being pretty young for a politician (she's only fifty). Despite the district being represented by an African-American, this is actually one of the whitest districts in the country currently represented by a person of color, meaning that Omar is likely to campaign more on ideological grounds rather than rely on strong support from the district's black voters. Either of these women could arguably become a big star in the House considering their age and the safeness of this district, and this could serve as a litmus test for future runs in safe, liberal seats in the future. I'd wager Omar has the upper-hand, but Kelliher is a tough politician who shouldn't be counted out (she's smart enough not to have run if she didn't think she could win).
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| Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones (D-MI) |
It is a long list when it comes to "the most frustrating State Democratic Party in the country." On any given day, it could be Florida, Ohio, or Wisconsin, but perhaps when it comes to candidate recruitment, few states can rival Michigan for its insularity and lack-of-creativity. That's because the few Democratic seats (all safely Democratic, though perhaps not so after November if the left can pick up some swing seats), seem to be held by dynasties. Currently Dan Kildee holds the seat previously held by his uncle and Debbie Dingell the seat previously held by her husband, a trend that could carry over to two seats in 2018 depending on the winner of the 9th and 13th districts. In the 9th, retiring Rep. Sander Levin seems intent on handing the seat over to his son Andy, who has led in most polling of the district, though former State Rep. Ellen Lipton has mounted an impressive campaign. Potentially less likely of a dynastic handoff (considering the family dynamics at play) is the 13th, where State Sen. Ian Conyers is in a tough race against Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, State Rep. Rashida Tilab, and State Sen. Coleman Young II. Conyers name could help him succeed his great uncle John into Congress, but this should be a close race (Jones seems to have at least some momentum). For the sake of spreading-the-wealth and raising a new generation of leaders, I hope dynastic politics becomes less popular in Michigan next week.
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| Shri Thanedar (D-MI) |
On the flip side, the Democratic Primary for governor seems to be pitting three people without a familial pull to politics. The primary, which could well become the general election favorite depending on how the race turns out (the Democrats are arguably the favorites considering the national environment and that Rick Snyder is retiring after eight years), but it's definitely been an interesting race. On one hand you have the clear establishment candidate in former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer has long been a rising star in the party, and would continue the trend of women being elected to higher office in 2018 Democratic primaries. On the other hand, though, you have former Detroit Health Director Abdul el-Sayed and businessman Shri Thanedar, both of whom are in hot pursuit of Whitmer, particularly Thanedar, who has spent heavily in the race throughout the cycle. el-Sayed and Thanedar both poll more poorly against Attorney General Bill Schuette (the probable GOP nominee) than Whitmer, so the seat could become more competitive under them, but it's clear that Whitmer's campaign hasn't been the runaway success some Democrats thought it would be with the base. Look for a close race, and a potential rising star if they pull through in November, considering Michigan's position as a swing district.
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| Rep. Gwen Graham (D-FL) |
Another race where we've seen a shift in the winds for some of the candidates, Florida's governor's race for the Democrats has turned into the main event for the Sunshine State as Rep. Ron DeSantis seems to be locking up the GOP nomination at this point (though that toady commercial where he teaches his daughter to love Trump is going to come back to bite him, particularly if his opponent is a woman, in the general). That looks increasingly likely, as Rep. Gwen Graham, after struggling for months to gain traction in the race, has begun to emerge as the prohibitive frontrunner for the seat her dad held many, many years ago. Increasingly the biggest question mark left for Graham is not Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine (who was leading for much of the spring), but billionaire businessman Jeff Greene, who has unlimited pockets and could try to mirror the successful campaigns of Rick Scott over the past eight years. Whomever comes through is going to have a tough road (Democrats haven't held the seat since Buddy MacKay in 1999), but with a lot of potential prizes at the end of the campaign. After all, the 55-year-old Graham would instantly become a part of the national conversation were she to become the ultimate swing state's first female governor.
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| Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) |
As I mentioned above, for all of the conversations about Joe Crowley and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, really Democratic incumbents have been safe almost the entire cycle. Crowley remains the only incumbent congressional Democrat to lose a primary so far this cycle, and it's possible he is the only one, period, in 2018 if Mike Capuano can avoid a challenge from his left. Capuano, who is currently in his tenth term in Congress, has been a pretty quiet backbencher representing Boston, perhaps most notable for his connection to Captain America (actor Chris Evans is his nephew). Considering how left-leaning his district is, though, it appears he could be vulnerable to Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, who was the first black woman ever elected to Boston's City Council, and would become the only person of color in New England's congressional delegation should she best Capuano. Before Ocasio-Cortez, one would have been safe to assume that this was a name-building campaign by Pressley, perhaps positioning herself for the seat when Capuano were to retire. However, now this could be a tough spot for Capuano, who is clearly taking the challenge a lot more seriously than his colleague Crowley. The winner here could be a telling show of what future "run to the left" primaries might look like.
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| State Rep. Erin Murphy (D-MN) |
The Minnesota DFL Primary was supposed to be a pretty staid affair. Rep. Tim Walz, a mild-mannered out-state legislator, fit the mold of your typical DFL nominee for governor: a white, moderate, family man who was soft on guns but left on labor. However, a win by State Rep. Erin Murphy in the DFL caucus combined with the last-minute entry of Attorney General Lori Swanson into the race forced Walz into a tougher race than he expected. Despite winning the endorsement, Murphy has struggled when it comes to actual polls, which indicate a tight race between Swanson and Walz. Swanson has more name recognition and has led in most matchups, but the support appears soft and some members of the left have been unimpressed with her campaign so far and are also concerned about her running-mate, Rick Nolan's, ability to wave off a #MeToo scandal involving one of his former employees. Swanson probably has the slimmest of edges here, but it wouldn't shock me if Walz bested her in the run-up to the primary. The winner will have a very tough race, likely against former Gov. Tim Pawlenty ahead of them, and if Murphy under-performs, there could be a host of tongue-wagging over whether or not the DFL needs to upend its endorsement process in the future.
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| Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI) |
Few successful politicians have had more bad luck in their runs for higher office that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. She quickly rose through the ranks of the Hawaii State Senate (becoming the first woman elected President of the Senate), but her jumps to higher office since then have been spotty. She lost the 2003 House election to fellow Democrat Ed Case, and again lost a House bid to Mazie Hirono in 2006 (by only 844 votes). She finally made it to the House in 2010, but after two terms she was snubbed by Gov. Neil Abercrombie when she was widely expected to be appointed to her mentor's (the late Sen. Dan Inouye's) Senate seat, with him instead choosing Brian Schatz, she challenged the sitting incumbent in the primary, and was considered the favorite up until Election Day, when she lost by less than 2000 votes to Schatz amidst some controversy when a hurricane caused a delay in the voting/vote-counting in some precincts. She later ran for the open seat of Rep. Mark Takai (who died of cancer), getting back into the House, but then decided to make one last bid for higher office, this time for governor.
Polling throughout the cycle had shown Hanabusa with a healthy lead, particularly considering Gov. David Ige's mishandling of the "missile alert" crisis that took place on January 13, 2018. However, Ige's approval has ticked up dramatically in recent weeks thanks to his handling of the current Kilauea Volcano disaster, and he's started to post a small lead over Hanabusa. Could the longtime politician once again clutch defeat from what once looked like certain victory? It's entirely possible that Hanabusa's bad luck is about to continue, perhaps even ending her political career.
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| Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R-KS) |
Slowly but steadily, it's looking like it might not be Ige but a different politician some 4000 miles east who ends up becoming the first incumbent governor to lose this cycle. Gov. Jeff Colyer assumed office earlier this year when then-incumbent Sam Brownback resigned to become a US Ambassador in the Trump administration. Though he was part of one of the most conservative administrations in the country, Colyer still appears to have some problems coming from his right flank in the form of controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Kobach, who has become a national name for his harsh (and frequently dismissed as illegal in court) policies on immigration and voting rights; he was involved in President Trump's much-maligned (and now defunct) Commission on Election Integrity, and would quickly become one of the most controversial governors in the country were he to win. Colyer has made the argument that he's the only Republican that can win the election against Kobach, and indeed polling shows State Sen. Laura Kelly (the leading Democrat in the race) running behind Colyer but ahead of Kobach, though polling is limited. The race is still evolving (in the past 24 hours, Kobach's campaign has faced accusations of employing white nationalists), but the Secretary of State has gained in recent polling, and Colyer's campaign seems to be trying some odd Hail Mary's (including attacking minor candidates in the race in order to drive down their vote counts), so Kobach could have an opening, and with that, so too could Democrats.
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| State Sen. Kelli Ward (R-AZ) |
You'll notice that the Senate is not well-represented on this list, and that's because the Senate has by-and-large finished its biggest primaries and for-the-most-part avoided major intra-party battles. The one exception to that is in Arizona, where a three-way race for the Republican nomination has caused nothing but heartburn for the NRSC. Their preferred candidate is Rep. Martha McSally, a former Air Force Colonel, who while very conservative, is definitely a member of the "establishment" wing of the party, and perhaps most pointedly, did not endorse Donald Trump. Aiding McSally is that there are two Tea Party challengers to her splitting the vote, State Sen. Kelli Ward (who challenged John McCain in 2016) and controversial former Maricopa County Sheriff (and convicted criminal Joe Arpaio), who was recently pardoned by President Trump. What has kept McSally safe in the race has been the two splitting the vote, but Ward has started to eat into Arpaio's margins, closing the gap with McSally and has now secured the support of billionaire GOP donor Robert Mercer, who could help Ward bridge the fundraising gap with McSally. A win by Ward could doom the GOP in this seat, as polling has shown Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) dominating her in the general election, while a contest against McSally polls tighter and could give the Republicans a fighting chance of winning the seat. As a result, this is arguably the most important primary left on the map because it's consequential to the tough math the Democrats face for the majority in the Senate; a win for Kelli Ward would be a much, much bigger win for Chuck Schumer.
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