The dynamics of these races have changed quite a bit, so I'm going to jump in right away. I will say that while this list favors the Democrats more than last time, it still has 7 seats held by the left compared to three on the right (not the same seats as last time, but we'll get there). I don't know that this will change even if the Democrats win. Arguably, right now, there are anywhere between 7-11 truly competitive seats if you look at polling, and while the individual seats may drop in and out, the Democrats will largely have to run the table with whatever seats are competitive on Election Day to gain back the majority. Since November, though, they've done well, adding a fully-fledged tossup to this list, and watched potentially competitive seats (Michigan, Pennsylvania, particularly Ohio) disappear from the list with boffo fundraising and great poll numbers. With that said, we'll dive into the list.
Honorable Mention: As I said, Ohio seems to be a lost cause right now-Brown is winning by 15-points in multiple polls, and while it will close (I doubt he wins by that large of a margin), it's doubtful Renacci can overcome a lead like that even this far out without a scandal (the only known person to fall with poll numbers like that in recent memory is George Allen, and it's unthinkable that Brown suffers a similar mistake). Democrats arguably made themselves more vulnerable by nominating incumbent Bob Menendez considering his dismal primary performance, but he's not losing the general in a cycle this D-friendly. And while Beto O'Rourke is running a fine campaign, arguably one of the best of the cycle, his poll numbers and the logistics of winning in Texas (seven of the country's 100 largest media markets are in Texas) make him a stretch without better polling. Still, he nearly made the list for lack of strong competitors (I'd put Texas at #11 after Brown's crazy good polling).
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| Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) |
One of two new states on our list, this is less to do with Tammy Baldwin slipping and more to do with Brown becoming safer (plus obviously Jones winning). Baldwin's biggest asset is her incumbency. She's a liberal Democrat who lucked out in 2012 in part because Tommy Thompson represented the past in a cycle where voters were electing a lot of new leaders. She won't have that advantage in 2012, but despite his win there, Trump hardly has a commanding hold on Wisconsin, and it seems like Mitch McConnell is giving up on this seat after getting only second tier challengers. Baldwin's arguably too liberal to be holding public office in a state that went for Trump (or a state this moderate in general), and in a different circumstance we'd be talking about this being a tossup, but I can't get there. I'd argue Leah Vukmir is the better challenger in the general (though neither Republican is good), and the Kochs probably won't give up on her, but I'd say that at this point Scott Walker is more vulnerable in 2018 than Baldwin, a big about face after 2016. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| Auditor Matt Rosendale (R-MT) |
Jon Tester also goes up on this list, but that's not an indication that he's vulnerable. If anything, Tester has done his level-best to stay in office, and the Republicans have helped him. State Auditor Matt Rosendale is clearly not catching fire with the electorate, just barely scraping by in his primary race, and now losing to Tester in most major polling (this week, Gravis had him up by eight). I'd argue that Trump will go after Tester hard, but so far Trump's endorsement hasn't done much (just ask Sen. Roy Moore, Gov. Ed Gillespie, and Rep. Rick Saccone), and he's running a pretty flawless campaign as it is. Tester is never going to be completely safe here, and it'd be best if he didn't make too many headlines against Trump in a state POTUS won by a solid margin, but like Wisconsin, you could argue that the statewide Republican incumbent (here Rep. Greg Gianforte) is more vulnerable than the Democratic senator. (Previous Ranking: 10)
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| Don Blankenship (C-WV) |
Joe Manchin is never going to be an easy figure for the Democrats to love. He's almost always the last person to join a liberal bill (witness Sen. Feinstein's Keep Families Together bill that took longer than it should have to get every Democratic senator), and he's going to be nicer to Donald Trump than any irate liberal on Twitter would ever allow. That said, he's by-far the most progressive voice you're going to get in West Virginia in today's climate, the state where Trump is the most popular in the union, and his Teflon ability here keeps Chuck Schumer in the running. Manchin didn't luck out as much as he could have (were Don Blankenship to have won the nomination), but that might not really matter-Patrick Morrissey isn't that impressive, and seems like a pretty Generic Republican. Plus, Blankenship, provided he can make it on the ballot under the Constitution Party, could take 5-6% away from Morrissey which would crush him. Combine that with a blue wave with moderates who like Manchin despite his party label, and you've got a race whose only factor in Trump's favor is his own popularity there. That's a pretty weak hat to hang your head on (particularly with a theoretical government shutdown looming in September), and as a result I don't think Manchin's that vulnerable, even if he'll never be safe. (Previous Ranking: 6)
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| Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN) |
The only other new race on this list, polling probably indicates it should be in the Top 3. It goes without saying that the biggest surprise in this year's battle for the Senate has been the way that Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has managed to upend his competition Rep. Marsha Blackburn at virtually every turn. Despite easy comparisons to people like Tony Knowles, Ted Strickland, & Evan Bayh, Bredesen continues to lead in his race over Blackburn, and is running a very smart campaign against her, in many ways borrowing from Doug Jones in neighboring Alabama on how to win a seat he has no business holding. All three of those former governors running in red territory also led in polls this far out, so I'm not quite at the point where I think this is a true tossup (Blackburn will gain most of the undecideds, giving Bredesen very little room to win this), but he's running a great campaign and eventually it'll be impossible to ignore those poll numbers. It's entirely possible that the fight for the Senate majority could come down to Tennessee...and the Democrats still prevail. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
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| State Rep. Mike Braun (R-IN) |
I'm going out on a limb here, as polling doesn't entirely bare this out. Arguably the Republicans got their best candidate this cycle; DC Republicans have been anathema to the base, and Mike Braun has a folksy, more Indiana-centric brand than Luke Messner or Todd Rokita could have ever aspired toward. Still, though, Donnelly has run a pitch-perfect, under-the-radar race, the kind that got Bill Nelson elected over-and-over again in Florida for years even when he had to survive tough races. As a result, I'm moving this down a few rankings as Donnelly seems to be popular in a way that defies logic (he's one of the least gregarious members of the Senate, at least in interviews), and while this is surely a tossup, it's a tossup that Donnelly probably has an edge in if you're forced to make a choice. It's doubtful, as a result, that Donnelly is going to decide the majority for the Democrats-if his seat is off-the-table, at this point it feels like the majority was decided elsewhere. (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) |
If there's a race that Democrats are privately talking about being a struggle this fall, it's Florida. That's because unlike almost every other Republican challenger on this list, Gov. Rick Scott is living up to the hype. Scott, a two-term governor with an endless amount of money, has been flooding the airwaves against longtime incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, who is proof that you can spend a lifetime in politics while still being relatively undefined. Scott has been calling for a change-in-leadership against Nelson, a bit odd coming from a sitting governor but it's clearly working as the race looks to be a tossup. This seat is not North Dakota or Montana-Trump may have won Florida, but he did it by the skin-of-his-teeth in 2016, and Nelson should do pretty well to hold Clinton's voters, plus could make gains in the traditionally more conservative Miami area (Cuban-Americans, as is evidenced by recent special elections, might be abandoning the GOP en masse, which sounds like a small thing but in the battle for both the House & Senate could be huge). Nelson's biggest issue here may be lethargy or waiting-too-late to advertise, and being overwhelmed by Scott's spending. It's clear the Senate Democrats are nervous, as of the $80 million that they've already earmarked in nine states this fall, $28 million of it is in Florida. (Previous Ranking: 7)
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| Attorney General Josh Hawley (R-MO) |
Claire McCaskill is, to paraphrase Billy Zane in Titanic, a woman who makes her own luck. Frequently people call her lucky, but McCaskill has skills, and it feels like the sort of attacks you wouldn't make against a man. Still, though, she's clearly besting Josh Hawley in this round of poker, as Hawley is now saddled with Eric Greitens for the rest of the cycle (and whatever that entails, as it doesn't seem like he's the type to go quietly), and Hawley continually misses the mark, most recently by attacking McCaskill over the family separation bill she cosponsored, just to watch as President Trump seems to be caving, thus leaving Hawley with the check (and McCaskill with a mountain of ad material). McCaskill isn't perfect (she should have sold that damn plane years ago), but she's shrewd, and even in red Missouri, the Republican isn't invincible, and Hawley is proving to be a poor candidate that perhaps Ann Wagner wouldn't have been. This stays in the Top 5 likely for the remainder of the year, but don't confuse that with me assuming that McCaskill can't win; increasingly, it looks like she can. (Previous Ranking: 2)
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| Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) |
I've displaced McCaskill as the most vulnerable Democrat on this list and put in a woman who, quite frankly, it's still shocking to me we're discussing at all. Heidi Heitkamp barely won this seat six years ago, after a brilliant campaign, shrewd retail politicking, and a weak Republican nominee. It's probable that the GOP has done better this cycle-Kevin Cramer is not a first-termer whom Heitkamp can paint as a "promotion-seeker," and he's going to be better at raising money. Polling, in fact, shows him with a slight lead over Heitkamp, which may be a sign that Trump is too popular in the Peace Garden State to let a Democrat win on his watch. Still, though, like McCaskill Heitkamp is shrewd, and has won many times here before. It's probable that she'll use Cramer's past comments on women against him later in the cycle (or more likely, let outside PAC's do that talking for her), and her friendship with Donald Trump can't hurt her in his second-most-popular state in the union. I'd argue at this point that Cramer would probable best Heitkamp, thus depriving the Democrats of the majority, but it'd be a nailbiter, and Heitkamp's proven she can come out on top of those. (Previous Ranking: 8)
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| Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) |
Some of the contests on this list have jumped simply due to races getting off of the list, a reaction to a shrinking battleground map. That is not the case, I want to underline, for Arizona-this has gone from "maybe" to "definitely" in terms of competitiveness, and in many ways is starting to mirror states like Oregon in 2006 or North Carolina in 2014, where the incumbent party may not be able to overcome the wave no matter how good the campaign they run is going. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is famous for playing it safe when it comes to her electoral instincts (she's had shots to run in longer odds races before), but that may well prove wise this year, as she's the frontrunner in most polling against even the favored Rep. Martha McSally, who is still going to have to survive a bloody primary (and may have a harder time winning over Ward/Arpaio supporters than it looks, particularly considering her tepid relationship with President Trump, who famously holds grudges). I'd argue that Sinema is the leader, though the state's natural red tendencies make her a vulnerable one. Still, Sinema's good standing here illustrates how important Alabama was for the Democrats, as she and Jacky Rosen would be able to land the majority if the Democrats can keep all of their incumbents in-line. (Previous Ranking: 5)
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| Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) |
Speaking of Jacky Rosen, she has to be feeling pretty happy these days. Sen. Dean Heller (R) was never going to go quietly-he's a fighter, a man who has held political office in Nevada for decades, but his attachment to Donald Trump seems occasionally misguided and frequently perplexing. The only state on this list that went for Hillary Clinton, Nevada may have historically had a Republican streak, and the GOP can still win there (Heller and Gov. Brian Sandoval prove that), but Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in 2016 and the state's increasingly blue demographics will eventually crater Heller's career. If a blue wave is ripe, it's difficult not to see Rosen able to successfully tie Heller to Trump, and it cannot be under-scored how much Rosen has going for her in that she just has to deliver Clinton voters to the polls to win-she doesn't have to win someone over or hope for low turnout like Heller does. As a result, while polling shows this neck-and-neck, my gut says that Rosen starts to break away with this come Labor Day and this becomes the sort of race that, like Pennsylvania in 2006 and Arkansas in 2014, a previously successful incumbent cannot help but lose. (Previous Ranking: 1)
The Outcome?: I'm adding this to articles about "State of the Races" going forward because someone asked me to, but right now I'd say the Democrats net gain 1 seat based on the above, with Rosen, Sinema, & Cramer all gaining their seats while the other contests go to the incumbent party. This would make the Senate 50/50, not enough for the Democrats to take the majority. But it's close, and the momentum is clearly on the left in the battle for the Senate, albeit not enough to say they are the favorites.
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