So these are important positions to look into, and as a result I've divided the biggest races into seven different buckets. Obviously the name of the game is running up the total, both from a pragmatic standpoint (getting to have a bigger hold on public policy), and from a bench-building game (many of these freshmen governors will become presidential or Senate candidates in the future). Let's dive into our first category, an important one that ultimately won't have a lot to do with our overall math score...
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| Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) |
There are currently six seats on the map that are held by the party that will probably hold the levels of power in January of 2019, but it'll be a different person in charge. One of them is a Democratically-controlled state (California), while five more are ruby-red Republican states with little hope of a Democratic takeover (Idaho, South Dakota, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).
All of these states are important, of course, since a change in leadership could change the direction of the state. A party shift, particularly at a governor's level, isn't the only indication of change. An incumbent may end up being considerably more vitriolic or conservative than the current incumbent would be. It's hard not to see, say, if Rep. Raul Labrador becomes governor of Idaho that he could make the state a testing ground for a future presidential race (he could also turn the state into Kansas). The same could be said if Rep. Kristi Noem wins the gubernatorial primary in South Dakota; considering her age (she's only 46), gender (in a party missing women in powerful positions), and time in Congress, she'd be an interesting future presidential candidate if she won this race. Gov. Jerry Brown's successor will surely catapult to a "future presidential" list, and considering the vaulted place that Brown has put his state on the world stage (giving him the aura of a "shadow" president for some of our allies befuddled by President Trump), a Governor Gavin Newsom or Governor John Chiang could be making headlines from day one.
It's worth noting that Oklahoma and Tennessee aren't foregone conclusions that they will stay GOP-a truly big wave might knock Attorney General Drew Edmondson or Nashville Mayor Karl Dean (the respective first-tier candidates) into contention in states that had Democratic governors within the past decade, but I'm not betting on it for now. In fact, this list is more likely to grow in coming weeks, as it appears that Gov. David Ige of Hawaii is deeply vulnerable to a primary challenge from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (the winner of that primary being the de facto governor considering the Aloha State's one-party nature). But while these races won't make headlines, it's probable that their new incumbents will, so keep an eye on them (at least until primary season is over).
What I'd Predict at This Point: All safe, though some of the primaries are coin flips right now.
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| Ned Lamont (D-CT) |
Because of the short list of Democrats that have to stand for election (only nine of the D's incumbents are up this year), the list of Democrats that are vulnerable is relatively short. Still, though, there are four states that seem to be at least somewhat vulnerable to a takeover: Rhode Island, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Colorado.
Rhode Island is the only one of these four seats that has an incumbent running for reelection, Gov Gina Raimondo. Raimondo's popularity is low in a state that is in part angry at her over traffic tolls that have put her at odds with leaders within the party. Raimondo has so far avoided a serious inter-party primary like Ige (her only opponent for the nomination being former State Rep. Spencer Dickinson), but former Gov. Lincoln Chafee and state Attorney General Peter Kilmartin are still mulling over a challenge from her left, which could make Raimondo vulnerable on both sides. Either way, she's probably vulnerable in the general election, as polls have shown her in a dead-heat with former Cranston Mayor Allen Fung, who was her opponent in 2014. Raimondo would surely be helped by a blue wave, and New England has a history of reelecting unpopular Democratic governors based on party ID alone, but she's definitely the most vulnerable Democratic governor to a Republican in 2018.
The other three seats are all open, and are in states that marginally went for Hillary Clinton in 2018. Colorado, I'd argue, is the least likely to switch as the Republicans have struggled in gaining back the governorship here for a while, but both sides have messy primaries that could result in a less attractive candidate emerging and ruining things for the party's chances; it's too soon to say one way or the other on this, though all things being equal I'd bet on the Democrats. Same is probably true with Minnesota, though here the race is entirely dependent on how popular former Gov. Tim Pawlenty is. Though he made a national name for himself, Pawlenty never won with 50% of the vote, twice being aided by a third-party candidate splitting the vote to get him a victory (something less likely to happen in 2018), and he's going to have to make it through a bitter GOP Primary with Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who is already making Pawlenty's tepid support for Donald Trump an issue. A race to the right could doom the Republicans, though it's worth noting that the Democrats didn't really bring their A-Game with their candidates either (I'm now even more befuddled by Attorney General Lori Swanson's refusal to get into the race, as she'd be the frontrunner at this point). Still, another race to watch.
If there's one seat where Democrats are in trouble, though, it's Connecticut. The incumbent, Gov. Dan Malloy, is wildly unpopular, to the point where Southern New England is the only region of the country that Republicans have done pretty well in recent special elections. Malloy is retiring (note that he is not term-limited, but thankfully got out of a race he had no hope of winning), and both sides have a gargantuan primary to get through before the general is reached, but the Democrats couldn't really find a "clear" frontrunner for the nomination as the likes of Attorney General George Jepsen won't be running. Democrats could end up with a politially-toxic environment and a terrible candidate (like, say, Ned Lamont), which would give the GOP an opening in a state that for decades prior to Malloy regularly had moderate governors. A blue wave could tilt this one, but if you're a Democrat, there's probably no more vulnerable seat.
Where I'd Predict at This Point: I'm going to guess that Connecticut is a loss at this point, while the other three stay slightly blue (though with whom, I'm not sure). These races will all become a lot clearer once the primaries have settled so they could become more or less vulnerable once that's taken into account. So bring it back down to 15 Democratic seats for now.
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| Attorney General Janet Mills (D-ME) |
Here's where the Democrats transition into very good news-there are already three seats that the Democrats are leading in the race to be governor: Maine, Illinois, and New Mexico.
All three, as you can tell, are Hillary-won states, in some cases states Hillary took by a lot (looking at you, Illinois), and all three have to deal with deeply unpopular Republican governors. In Illinois, that governor is standing for reelection, and while the Democrats nominated a less-than-ideal candidate in JB Pritzker (whose campaign tactics and aggressive billionaire bullying made him a candidate I was loathe to support in the primary even as a Yellow Dog), it's difficult to see how Rauner can take a splintered GOP AND win over a state that doesn't like him already against someone who can basically match him dollar-for-dollar in the general election (it's the battle of the billionaires). Pritzker will probably win, and has the aura of another scandal-plagued Illinois governor (Daniel Bliss was right there people, so you only have yourselves to blame).
The other two seats are open, though as I said both Govs. Susana Martinez and Paul LePage have seen steep dips in their popularity since they last stood for reelection. The biggest problem in these states, though, is that the GOP's bench is too thin. In New Mexico the GOP arguably got their best case scenario with Rep. Steve Pearce standing for reelection, but this is the wrong year for a Republican to try to succeed another Republican in a Latino-populated state, and the Democrats also got a very adept candidate in Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham. In Maine, the GOP has struggled to find a candidate who could catch on the same way that LePage did, and it's probable that Attorney General Janet Mills (D) will be able to dominate both the primary and the general election here. About the only hope for the GOP in any of these three seats is if one of the plethora of independent candidates in Maine catch on with Democratic voters (that's how LePage ultimately won), but after being twice-burned and with Trump in the White House, I wonder if the Democrats might not be willing to take risks in 2018.
What I'd Predict at This Point: Democrats take all three, in Illinois & New Mexico possibly by double-digits. That brings them back up to 19 seats.
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| State Sen. Laura Kelly (D-KS) |
The next four races we're about to profile all are probably where the Republicans are going to gage whether or not they had a good year on the gubernatorial front. All of these races both sides have at least some reason to be excited, though none of them are ones that are automatically going to either side. If Democrats want any shot at a majority of the gubernatorial seats (still a pretty steep climb, though not an impossible one...I'd put it somewhere between the likelihood of a House Majority and a Senate Majority), they're going to have to lock up at least a couple of these by September. But the four races that seem like a true tossup at this point are Michigan, Florida, Nevada, and Kansas.
The only Hillary state in this bunch is Nevada, a state that arguably has a better shot of flipping its Senate seat than its Governors' seat. That's in part because the Republicans have an actually popular governor in incumbent Brian Sandoval (rumors that he and Dean Heller would swap offices were the stuff of Democratic nightmares as it's very possible Sandoval would have held the seat that Heller may well lose). Republicans have a strong candidate in Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who has led in most primary polling and bested former Secretary of State Ross Miller in 2014 despite a tough campaign. On the Democratic side, the left has largely coalesced around Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, though he'll have to best one of his colleagues (Chris Giunchigliani) to take the nomination. Surface-level, I'd argue Laxalt is probably the superior candidate (he's the grandson of longtime Republican fixture, former Sen. Paul Laxalt), but Sisolak will have a blue tinted state in a blue wave election. Democrats are making some serious plays down-ballot (trying to reclaim most of the constitutional offices, as well as two congressional seats and holding the State Senate, not to mention a serious play against Heller), so Sisolak's strength is important to ensure coattails.
The remaining three are in states that went for President Trump in 2016, but by varying margins and with different factors contributing to them being tossup seats. For starters, you have Michigan, which Trump won by less than half a percentage point, and has something of a history of switching governors' parties every eight years, and despite some trepidation from party bosses in the state, it seems that they're settling upon State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer while the Republicans weather a primary between Lt. Gov. Brian Calley and Attorney General Bill Schuette. Whitmer's probably not as strong statewide as either of these two, but she might not need to be. The Democrats have also had a perpetual bench problem in this state (it's embarrassing how many of the House seats go to children or relatives of former Democratic congressmen), so Whitmer doing well could help Jocelyn Benson & Patrick Miles in their runs for Secretary of State and Attorney General, respectively, as this is the best chance in a while the Democrats have of sweeping all of the state's constitutional offices.
Florida is frequently the close-but-no-cigar race for the Democrats, with seemingly strong candidates like Alex Sink & Charlie Crist falling at the last minute to the GOP candidate despite doing well in polling. This year, we'll be wondering if Rep. Gwen Graham (D), can follow in her father's footsteps and stop this trend, with Republicans enduring a tough primary between State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (who has been running a stealth campaign for governor for like a decade now) and Rep. Ron DeSantis. Democrats in Florida always struggle at the finish line, but Graham is a strong campaigner, and will potentially have a new bloc of younger voters and Puerto Rican voters that could help her in a way no other state could (we don't know yet what the effects of the Parkland High School protests & Puerto Ricans seeking refuge from hurricane relief are, but it certainly won't hurt Graham).
And finally we have Kansas, a ruby-red state that nonetheless may be ready for a Democrat after eight deeply unpopular (but still reelected) years of Sam Brownback. Brownback's disapproval before he was appointed as an ambassador by President Trump was in the 70's, and while Brownback is no longer in office, his stench could still linger in the memory of voters. This is particularly true since the new incumbent (Jeff Colyer) has struggled in the polls against controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who may be incendiary enough to remind voters of Brownback (who probably would have lost in 2014 had that year not been a rough one for Democrats). On the Democratic side, there are a number of candidates, but State Sen. Laura Kelly may have a slight leg up on State House Minority Leader Jim Ward & Agriculture Secretary Joshua Svaty. A third-party bid by Greg Orman could complicate things (though for which side-it's hard to say), but this is a winnable race-lest we forget, Kansas had a Democratic governor for eight years prior to Brownback.
What I'd Predict at This Point: At this point, honestly, I see all four going blue. That may be a bit sunny, but honestly in an environment like this, a true tossup should go blue, and while these races aren't set in stone (Graham & Kelly in particular could falter if they are seen as "too liberal"), I'm going to bet on the Democrats making a clean sweep and hitting 23.
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| State Superintendent Tony Evers (D-WI) |
The next round of states are ones where, at least on-paper, I think the Republicans have a slight edge, but I also think the recipe is there for the Democrats to eventually win a seat or two. All four of these states went to President Trump in 2016, albeit by varying margins, and for the most part are open seats (or seats with incumbents that haven't elected their current governor yet).
If that isn't confusing to you, may I introduce you to Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa, who took over as governor after Terry Branstad (who was basically King of Iowa considering how long he served as governor, serving longer than any governor of a state ever, surpassing Founding Father George Clinton to get that record) resigned to become Ambassador to China. Reynolds is probably the frontrunner as Iowa Democrats have been relatively scattered recently, but she doesn't have Branstad's sense of invincibility, and when given the chance last time, Iowa sided for a Democrat when Branstad wasn't on the ballot. Reynolds' fate could be tied to Trump's tariff war, as Iowa is the country's second-highest producer of soy beans, one of the biggest items China raised their tariffs on in the past few weeks.
Just across the border from Iowa is another governor who could be in trouble, Wisconsin's Scott Walker. Walker recently has seen two major defeats in his state (watching a State Senate seat and a Supreme Court seat slip to the Democrats), and has never won reelection by much (though he's always won it). His likely opponent for the general election will be State Superintendent Tony Evers, who has been quarreling with the governor over education funding for years. Wisconsin has a long history of reelecting their governors (as well as Iowa), but Walker hasn't had to contend with a rough political environment in his statewide bids yet-could Evers be the unlikely one to take him down after three spirited campaigns?
The final two races are open seats, as Republican Govs. John Kasich (OH) and Nathan Deal (GA) are both term-limited. Ohio, a traditional swing state, might seem like the better option for the Democrats, though the state swung hard-right in 2016 (even while recent wins by President Obama prove it can be won), but polling has shown that the Republicans have a bit of a leg-up. Both sides have tough primaries ahead of them that could be damaging for candidates. Republicans have likely nominee Attorney General Mike DeWine getting into a particularly nasty campaign against Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (who is fighting her association with Kasich, who is not popular with the party's base right now), while former Attorney General Richard Cordray is the establishment favorite amongst Democrats, but needs to best former Rep. Dennis Kucinich from his left to take the nomination (Kucinich would be poison in the general). DeWine is probably the frontrunner, but Cordray has done well before in Ohio, and could gain if the environment is toxic (Trump's approval has been declining in the Buckeye State).
In Georgia, both sides are fighting tough campaigns, albeit ones I don't think will be that close at the end of the day. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) seems likely to dispatch Secretary of State Brian Kemp & former State Sen. Hunter Hill, while former House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) will surely best State Rep. Stacey Evans. A Cagle vs. Abrams race could turn ugly, as Cagle is known for scorched-earth, win-at-all-cost campaigns (just Google "Casey Cagle Delta Airlines" and understand what he's capable of doing to appeal to social conservatives), and Abrams position as an African-American woman running for governor (she'd be the first to serve if elected), could lead to a copy of Donald Trump's 2016 dog-whistle campaign. Georgia went to Donald Trump in 2016, but not by a huge amount, so there's potential for Abrams, but she'll need a huge win (and record African-American turnout) to take the state.
What I'd Predict at This Point: As I said, the Republican is favored in all four of these races. If I had to place a bet as to which one turns first, though, I think Wisconsin is their best opportunity, potentially followed by Georgia. The political winds in Wisconsin seem to be tilting to the Democrats' favor, and he's hardly a popular incumbent. Really, though, if these four states start getting competitive, you can tell we've gotten into a tsunami.
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| Mayor Setti Warren (D-MA) |
Waves occasionally erupt in strange ways. In 2006, for example, Democrats had a pretty strong tide of gubernatorial wins, picking up six governorships, but somehow missing in a few solidly blue states like California, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Connecticut. Four years later, however, Republicans in another wave election managed to win the governorship to all but one (Arkansas) state that John McCain had taken the year before, in a cycle where they also ended up netting six seats.
These four holdouts are an indication that you can't just win because you're the out-of-power party and because you are a blue state. Currently, the Republicans have four popular incumbents in Hillary-won states that are standing for reelection, and as these waves indicate, they could be fine when it comes to their reelection campaigns. After all, in all four states, the Democrats have vastly struggled when it comes to recruitment, and they have (if we're being generous) second-tier candidates in all of them.
That being said, waves do occasionally topple popular incumbents simply because of party label. In 2006, then-Mayor Martin O'Malley beat incumbent Gov. Bob Ehrlich despite Ehrlich's approval ratings being above 50% at the time; many noted at the time (including yours truly) that O'Malley didn't so much beat Ehrlich as he beat George W. Bush. In these four races, the Democrats are going to try as hard as they might to do the same against Donald Trump.
One of those four states is again Maryland, which was Hillary Clinton's third-best state, where Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has relatively solid approval ratings, but can't quite hit the 50%-mark in most public polling (though he's close). The Democrats have a hodge-podge of random guys running for governor, with Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker toward the top of the pack. Considering that nearly the entire House delegation is Democratic (and so is every constitutional office), it's clear local Democrats don't think they can win this seat (otherwise surely one of them would have tried for a promotion), but it's impossible to shake the image of Martin O'Malley coming out of nowhere, and Hogan's polling is strong but not invincible.
The next three Republican governors are also possible, but don't quite have as strong of a "partisan-lean" as Maryland (arguably the most partisan left-leaning state in the nation after Hawaii): New Hampshire's Chris Sununu, Massachusetts's Charlie Baker, and Vermont's Phil Scott. All three states have pretty strong track records for reelecting Republicans to their governorships despite being blue on a federal level, and all three men have managed to distance themselves from Trump AND have 60%+ approval ratings. Baker, in particular, has become the poster-child for how Republicans can run away from Trump and win support in the process. The Democrats have respectable candidates leading the pack in all three races, but they're hardly impressive. Massachusetts will probably settle on Newton Mayor Setti Warren, though Warren can't hold Baker below 50% in any public polling. Vermont Democrats just recruited Christine Hallquist, CEO of Vermont Electric Cooperative, as a probable candidate; if elected, Hallquist would become the first transgender person to hold statewide office in the United States, but she's hardly well-known in the state, and Vermont has a rather poor history of electing female candidates. Finally, there's New Hampshire, where the Democratic Primary appears to be between former State Sen. Molly Kelly & Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. New Hampshire has a similar former situation like Ehrlich's (in 2004, Craig Benson got swept out of office by a political neophyte, John Lynch, in 2004 under the pressure of John Kerry winning the state, despite nearly 50% approval ratings and being in his first-term), so Sununu can't rest totally easy, but he is significantly better-liked than Benson was at this time.
What I'd Predict at this Point: I assume the Republicans will take all four. One of these states (probably Maryland or New Hampshire) could go into tossup territory IF the Democrat can successfully rub Donald Trump off on the incumbent governor but so-far they have not had to deal with the national Republicans hurting their brand, so I'd say they're fine.
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| Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) |
Our final profile is of the Last Frontier, Alaska. Four years ago, in a shock, Gov. Sean Parnell lost his reelection. Despite low approval ratings, it was assumed that Parnell could translate that year's wave election into a victory due to his Republican label, and the Democrats/Independents splitting their tickets. The two tickets, however, merged, making it possible for them to win on an Independent (but clearly Democrat-friendly) ticket.
Four years later, Gov. Bill Walker is struggling with his own approval ratings woes, and the Republicans are itching to take back a seat in such a poor environment, even if it's not at the hands of a Democrat. The Republican Primary seems to still be forming, though State Sen. Mike Dunleavy has taken something of an early lead in fundraising. If Walker is truly vulnerable, it's hard not to see stronger candidates getting into the race (like State Senate President Pete Kelly or former State Senate President Ben Stevens), but they make their decision with a potential 800-pound-gorilla in the room on the Democrats' side.
That's because former Sen. Mark Begich has been flirting with a potential candidacy for over a year, and would clearly benefit from this year's environment (and Walker's terrible approval ratings). Were Begich to get in, he'd upend arguably the Republicans' best shot at a pickup, though this is still ruby-red Alaska, who hasn't chosen a Democrat for governor since Tony Knowles in 1998. Until candidate filing is done on June 1st, he's still a potential candidate as Alaska is a cheap state to advertise in and his six years in the US Senate assures that he can assemble a fundraising team together quickly (and has near-universal name recognition).
What I'd Predict at this Point: Without Begich in the race, I'll say this is a Republican pickup. If Begich gets in (and though I wouldn't bet on it, I have no idea why he wouldn't as he's only 56 and will never have an opportunity like this again), then this goes to pure Tossup. As a result, my final count for the year is 27R-23D, but with enough seats up-in-the-air for the Democrats to reach that arbitrary (but morale-important) 26 seat-majority.
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