 |
| Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) |
The Apprehensive Recruit: Bob Corker, a two-term Republican senator (and former Mayor of Chattanooga), who at 65 decided he'd had enough of Washington, particularly with President Trump regularly waging public wars with him on Twitter.
Why He Declined in the First Place: Corker has become rather famous as a pain in Donald Trump's side, regularly criticizing the president, and being one of the senators POTUS despises the most from his own party (after, of course, Jeff Flake). That was going to be a huge burden in Tennessee, where the president still has strong approval ratings, particularly amongst Republicans, and quite frankly I don't know that Corker would have made it through the primary.
Why the Change of Heart: Corker has, in recent weeks, been less critical of the president, and has not dampened speculation that he could make a play for a third term. Part of that comes from worry about the Republican field (that's true, in fact, of all three of these races). Polls have shown Marsha Blackburn, the polarizing congresswoman who is the frontrunner to get the nomination with Corker out-of-the-way, in a statistical tie with likely Democratic nominee Gov. Phil Bredesen, with some polls going so far as to indicate Bredesen would beat Blackburn, who has a long history of making "bold" statements on cable news (remember, she's the congresswoman who debated Bill Nye about the existence of climate change). Corker's reentry could potentially stave off Blackburn as the nominee, giving the Republicans a better shot here in a seat they almost certainly need to control the chamber.
Then Again...: Blackburn has doubled-down that she is not getting out of the race, saying anyone who doesn't think she can win the general election is "sexist" (that's not really how sexism works, but that's a topic for a different day), and Corker still would have to mend fences with Trump to take back his office, something that could be demeaning for the longtime politician. Additionally, considering the "RINO" attacks that he could endure, Corker could actually be a worse general election candidate than Blackburn, albeit in a different manner. If a conservative third party candidate gets in, he could easily split the vote with people who loathe him for criticizing Trump, therefore handing over the election to Bredesen in a different fashion.
Odds of Running Again: 25%
 |
| President Donald Trump with Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) |
The Apprehensive Recruit: Kevin Cramer, a three-term Republican congressman who declined this race during the low point of Trump & Republicans' popularity last month.
Why He Declined in the First Place: Unlike Corker, this wasn't because Cramer didn't have the support of the president. Indeed, POTUS truly wanted Cramer to run for the seat, and was hoping he would take on freshman Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Instead, he declined largely because at 57 he'd be giving up his safe Republican seat in a tough election against a woman that he could very easily run to best in six years, or potentially try for John Hoeven's seat if he were to retire in 2022. That was a risk he wasn't willing to take, and declined the race knowing that the Republicans didn't have any first-tier candidates left for the seat.
Why the Change of Heart: No one probably is taking the Republican generic polling data to heart more than Cramer, who is not just a politician basking in the glow of public adoration one more time (it's always a good color to be courted for higher office, even if you don't run for it), but instead seems to be genuinely interested in running. Gary Emineth, the former chair of the North Dakota Republican Party, has already dropped out of the race assuming Cramer would run, and Republicans seem legitimately worried that State Sen. Tom Campbell could be a treasure trove of opposition research for the Heitkamp campaign. Campbell, who would certainly be the nominee at this point were Cramer to decline the race, reportedly was involved with a specious lawsuit to get more money from his mother's life insurance program (after she died), and his bank has foreclosed on a number of North Dakota farmers. Those would both be easy commercials for Heitkamp to use in an ad (as someone who lives in the neighboring state of Minnesota, I can tell you that an ad featuring a bunch of farmers talking to the camera about losing their family farms to a "greedy bank" would be a VERY effective ad here), and Campbell's strangely progressive views on hemp & marijuana could also cost him support from older voters, who could easily view Heitkamp as "one of the good ones" when it comes to Democrats and just vote for her instead (or stay home). Plus, because of federal laws that allow someone to transfer money from their House to Senate campaign with ease, Cramer actually has considerably more cash-on-hand than Campbell does, even though he's not actually running for the Senate (though neither comes remotely close to what Heitkamp has on reserve).
Then Again...: I don't have a lot of then-agains for the GOP here-it's pretty clear that Cramer is the preferred candidate for a reason, and while Heitkamp would never be safe this far-out, it's entirely possible that Campbell could make her this cycle's "Bill Nelson in 2012" or "Susan Collins in 2008," someone who was theoretically vulnerable but the party could never get their act together. However, Cramer still wouldn't be the clear frontrunner in November were he to run, and the risks are still there for him if he ran (he could sacrifice a safe seat for a loss that would kill his political career). Plus, Cramer is not the perfect candidate for the seat; his comments when it comes to women, in particular, mirror that of Rick Berg in 2012 in a lot of ways and could be used by Heitkamp to repeat her successful first-term campaign strategy.
Chances of Running: 75% (and rising)
 |
| Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) |
The Apprehensive Recruit: Rep. Ann Wagner, a three-term congresswoman who represents the St. Louis suburbs and also served as State Party Chair and an ambassador (to Luxembourg) under George W. Bush.
Why She Declined in the First Place: Wagner was the real canary-in-the-coal-mine situation for the Republicans' recruitment problems this cycle. She had long been expected to run for Claire McCaskill's seat, and was seen as arguably the best recruit prospect in the country at the time. McCaskill is famously one of the country's best fundraisers, and while Wagner hasn't gone toe-to-toe with her in that regard, she's certainly gained fame in fundraising for a reason, and after the infamous "legitimate rape" moment from Todd Akin six years ago, the GOP really wanted a female candidate against McCaskill to prevent any screw-ups that could cost them again with moderate women. Wagner, however, saw the political landscape as being too tough for her to win statewide (like Cramer, she has a much stronger shot at winning her House seat than a statewide race), and declined the opportunity, likely thinking at only 55 she could take on McCaskill in six years, or perhaps make a play for Sen. Roy Blunt's seat in 2022 when he'll be in his 70's.
Why the Change of Heart: Josh Hawley. Republicans, who are still skittish after Akin (before Akin's comments on "legitimate rape" it was widely-assumed that McCaskill couldn't win reelection with Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket), see some parallels between Hawley and Akin. Hawley's recent comments about how the sexual liberation of the 1960's led to a rise in human trafficking were widely criticized, and received rebukes from both McCaskill (her Twitter quote read "I didn't go to one of those fancy private schools, but the history lessons I learned in public schools & Mizzou taught me the evidence of trafficking of women for sex goes back to before 2000 BC," getting not only a solid burn on Hawley, but also showed her Missouri bonafides, as the younger Hawley hasn't spent much of his adult career in the Show Me State) and Wagner ("It is imperative Congress understands the severity of #HumanTrafficking & #sextrafficking in our communities. We must approach this issue in a bipartisan way and with the urgency it deserves—not just during Human Trafficking Awareness Month, but always."). Combined with anemic fundraising numbers and his short political career that could be rife for McCaskill to campaign against (he was only just elected to public office in 2016), and Wagner looks a lot more appealing. Plus, the makeup of Wagner's district makes her a bit more vulnerable in her seat than she was a few months ago. She has a challenger who has so far run a solid campaign (Cort VanOstran) and the wealthy suburbs she represents are the type that seemed less infatuated with Donald Trump in 2016 than past Republicans (Mitt Romney did 5-points better in Wagner's district than Trump). If she's in a tough race either way, why not make a play for the promotion?
Then Again...: Hawley isn't going anywhere, and he's got the Republican establishment backing him. Wagner isn't the field-clearer that she would have been a few months ago, and unlike Cramer, it's not entirely clear she'd be the frontrunner to win the nomination were she to reenter (despite a solid play by VanOstran, she's still decidedly the frontrunner to win reelection in MO-2). She'd be taking two very real risks (taking on both Hawley and McCaskill), and it's near certain that McCaskill would have a tougher race in 2024 than 2018 considering it's a presidential race. I think patience will be a virtue here, and Wagner isn't going to risk a near-sure-thing for a bloody race with two statewide officeholders without more guarantees.
Chances of Running: 10%
No comments:
Post a Comment