Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alts: Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread (I get two because of the weird 5-10 rule...otherwise I'll stick to one)
The Lowdown: I am going back-and-forth on CMBYN and I, Tonya. Both have hit some precursors, but overall love for both seem a bit cool (CMBYN scoring Best Picture nods, but few other places, I Tonya seeming like an acting magnet more than a top prize one). I'm going with I, Tonya because after Carol, I kind of wonder if (lacking peer pressure like with Moonlight) older Academy members just won't go for a gay-themed film. The Post may end up being more War Horse than Lincoln, but it still makes it, and you're going to find I'm more bullish on Darkest Hour than other pundits are as we keep going. Otherwise, I feel good about these.
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards...
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Alt: Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
The Lowdown: I know this is a carbon copy of the DGA list, but honestly-this was the list I was expecting to put in prior to the DGA, so I'm just sticking with it. Spielberg's shutouts at SAG and BAFTA indicate that while their gross may end up being fine for The Post (Hanks & Streep are box office insurance), they botched the awards release here, and I think will pay with this being one of his misses. Mudbound I'm going to assume largely misses with Oscar as I think Netflix bias could still be an issue, and Guadagnino, Gillespie, & Wright all will have to settle for Best Picture shots, not a nomination here.
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Alt: James Franco, The Disaster Artist
The Lowdown: I cannot kick the idea that something weird's about to happen here, where a name no one is talking about makes it in because this is SUCH a weak year. In a normal year Chalamet would be struggling to make it based solely on his age and this year he seems a near-certain inclusion. Kaluuya is getting this based on a weak year (it's an odd performance to get a Best Actor nomination), but with Franco imploding the week of voting, it's hard not to see him as the obvious replacement at the show-position (though it's worth noting that Franco imploded during voting, so he may well get a nomination as he was headed for one anyway). I'm going to resist the urge to put a name no one is saying out-loud mostly because I can't think of one that has even a hint of momentum (Jake Gyllenhaal? Hugh Jackman? Christian Bale?), and figure that Washington has never missed when he's gotten in for SAG/Globes, and won't again this year.
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards...
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Alt: Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
The Lowdown: Four of these nominations I'd largely bet on: McDormand, Ronan, Robbie, & Hawkins. I suppose you could make an argument that one of them shocks in a miss, but all seem too sensible on paper. Streep is here based on her name alone, as the film itself has lost all sorts of momentum, and most mere mortal actors would have fallen by now, but she's still Meryl, and while there's lots of good contenders here, none of them seem like an obvious option. Chastain is in a populist film (and could be the replacement, considering she hasn't been invited to the Oscars in a few years), Michelle Williams had a good press week during Oscar voting, and Judi Dench is always a threat (even though that BAFTA miss is bizarre). That said, I think the surprise BAFTA inclusion of Annette Bening a year after she nearly made it could be a hint. She's overdue for a trophy (I could see her being a dark horse to win if she's included), and she's playing a real person who is dying of cancer. Could this be the surprise no one sees coming but everyone should?
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards...
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards...
Alt: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name
The Lowdown: The main question here is around Call Me by Your Name. I'm convinced at this point that vote-splitting is hurting Stuhlbarg & Hammer, and that the late rise of Christopher Plummer gave the Academy the capability of snubbing them both (also worth noting-Steve Carell has done well this season for someone no one expects to make it here...perhaps they should?). I initially included Stuhlbarg, but the "do the industry a favor" move of Plummer combined with the rise of Three Billboards makes me suspect that both CMBYN actors miss.
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Alt: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
The Lowdown: While the late BAFTA blessings of KST and Manville (as well as the NYFCC citation for Haddish) do give us a few extra names, really we've seen the precursors gather around six women, and I'm sticking with them (you get the glory when you call the "out of left field" nomination, but by-and-large Oscar plays it safe and so am I). For the odd-woman-out, I thought about making it Chau, but I'm going to assume that (until proven otherwise) Oscar won't go for Netflix, and Blige's part isn't that impressive (it's nowhere near as showy as Idris Elba a couple of years ago), so I'll guess she's the shock miss this season. Anyone other than Janney/Metcalf wouldn't surprise as the miss on nominations morning, though.
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards...
Alt: The Post
The Lowdown: What a jam-packed category. In addition to this field, you have the populist hit The Big Sick (the sort of film that would usually be a slam-dunk here), The Florida Project (with that naturalistic dialogue, could be a hit), or simply a Best Picture contender like Darkest Hour. I'm guessing that The Post's absence in precursors is people not responding to the film, otherwise the serious Spielberg film nearly always makes it for writing. Expect a battle royale when it comes to who actually wins this, but for now these are my predictions.
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Alt: Wonder
The Lowdown: With Original Screenplay hogging all of the glory, this is scant outside of CMBYN and Mudbound. I'm going to include Molly's Game thanks solely to Sorkin, and will keep The Disaster Artist in if only because it's about filmmaking. The final slot is truly a shot-in-the-dark. I'm going with Logan because the WGA remembered it and maybe Oscar will want to put its stamp on it, but Wonder, Last Flag Flying, Victoria & Abdul...this list has a lot of left field opportunities for that final slot.
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Alt: The Big Bad Fox
The Lowdown: One of the biggest questions haunting this race is what will AMPAS's decision to open up voting to all voters in this field do to smaller films. In a normal year, we'd assume that Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox, and The Breadwinner would be serious contenders in a weak field, but this year we may just go with films that Oscar voters saw like The Boss Baby and Ferdinand (perhaps even Despicable Me 3). It's also worth noting that The Lego Batman Movie (a critical hit, more so than some of the above contenders), could make it if the bias against more flagrantly commercial flicks disappears when the full Academy votes (see also the past misses for The Simpsons Movie, The Adventures of Tintin, and The Lego Movie).
City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
Last Man in Aleppo
Alt: Strong Island
The Lowdown: I have only seen two of the shortlisted contenders here (Jane and Chasing Coral), and only really liked the former, so I don't have a lot to say here. It's worth noting, always, that you can listen to the buzz and come up with a pretty strong list at the Oscars, and I suspect this is one. Strong Island has a subject matter that normally would resonate (looking at racism in the judicial system), but I can't pinpoint which movie won't make it. Expect this lineup, and probably a victory for Jane so they can bring Goodall onstage during the ceremony.
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Foxtrot (Israel)
In the Fade (Germany)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden)
Alt: Felicite (Senegal)
The Lowdown: I feel like this is lazy math, which is partially why I ended up going with Felicite as this category is famous for its wild cards, and the five I predicted are the most mainstream and obvious five choices. It's Foreign Language Film at the Oscars, so anything could happen (A Fantastic Woman or In the Fade could both miss, quite frankly), but I'm going with this lineup as it feels like it's been destined for a while now.
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Alt: Mudbound
The Lowdown: I'm going to hope against hope that Mudbound misses here (my cause celebre for Oscar nominations this year), though it would obviously be cool to see a woman nominated, and with an ASC nomination Rachel Morrison is in the hunt. I do think that the Cinematography branch will object to a Netflix movie being amongst the nominees, and go with something very distinctive like Call Me by Your Name (or perhaps a Best Picture nominee such as Three Billboards which inexplicably got in with BAFTA). I have to say, in a year that Woody Allen wasn't a pariah it seems certain Wonder Wheel (which is GORGEOUS) would have made this list for legendary Vittorio Storaro, but not in 2017.
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Alt: I, Tonya
The Lowdown: Loads of contenders here (amongst those not listed are The Post, Wonderstruck, Wonder Woman, and Murder on the Orient Express, all of which are designed by Oscar winners), but I want to say this is the five. Victoria & Abdul missed with the Costume Design Guild AND BAFTA, which may make predicting it stupid, but I'm picking it over the recreations in I, Tonya if only because AMPAS loves their royalty porn, and this gives it to them in every inch of the picture.
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Alt: Baby Driver
The Lowdown: There is a a simple math when it comes to this category since the expansion of the Best Picture field-go with all of the serious/male-lead Best Picture contenders, and then throw in a populist action flick if there aren't enough. This year, though, there are, which may mean that Baby Driver (or Star Wars, for that matter) will miss out on a nomination it might otherwise have received. If it makes it, probably Darkest Hour isn't as strong as I expected it to be.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Bright
Darkest Hour
Wonder
Alt: I, Tonya
The Lowdown: Who the hell knows with this branch? It's down to seven films (Ghost in the Shell, Victoria & Abdul, and Guardians 2), so expect really any combination, but lately they've made a point of nominating the worst film imaginable in this field, and that's probably Bright so I'm going with it if only because Makeup likes to torture me when it comes to the Oscar Viewing Project. Also, I know a lot of people complain about this every single year, but why the hell do we only get three nominees here-literally every movie has makeup (not every movie has songs or visual effects), so why is this the only category to only get to have three nominees?
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Alt: Victoria and Abdul
The Lowdown: Again, I'd wager that Victoria & Abdul would normally be a serious threat for a nomination (perhaps even a win), but its lack of love in precursors makes me wonder if people just aren't feeling the picture. For that reason I'm keeping it (and clear contender The Post, whom I am assuming isn't anyone's cup of tea this year) out and putting in this lineup. If someone gets kicked out, expect it to be Beauty as Disney is not great with Oscar campaigns outside of animation.
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War of the Planet of the Apes
Alt: The Shape of Water
The Lowdown: One of the rare categories I'm making a gut decision and going with someone out of left field. Valerian bested a number of more likely contenders to make it to the shortlist, and The Shape of Water has pretty showy effects, but definitely not "the most." It's entirely possible Planet of the Apes is on the outs as well (no one seems to remember that picture) or the practical effects of Dunkirk aren't gaudy enough, but my gut says Valerian somehow makes it into this field
Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Alt: Three Billboards...
The Lowdown: Here is where I say that the disinterest in The Post and Victoria & Abdul are completely forgotten, as (unless 2016 is a new trend and not an aberration) this is the clubbiest of the Oscar branches, and it's hard to say no to John Williams and Thomas Newman. Williams is always a threat to double-up (he does have Star Wars: The Last Jedi), and there's usually a first-timer (perhaps Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread), but I'm guessing that this is the list.
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
"You Shouldn't Look at Me That Way," Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Alt: "Evermore," Beauty and the Beast
The Lowdown: It is never wise to bet against Alan Menken at the Oscars, or really to assume anyone is set in-stone with this branch (Alone Yet Not Alone, anyone?), but I think that the mandatory nominations for the film just don't feel necessary this year. I should also be going with The Star, but will the music branch feel the need to honor Mariah Carey as a songwriter? That's why I'm going with my gut and assuming the moody musicians (Costello & Stevens) both score the final two slots alongside the most-likely trio.
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Greatest Showman
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: Get Out
The Lowdown: It's going to be a massive bummer if my favorite aspect of Get Out (the sound) gets snubbed, but horror films aren't the draw here that big-budget action films and musicals are. I should also probably be considering Darkest Hour, and it was in the hunt, but whom do you cut here? Unless they're not really feeling Star Wars, this is probably the list.
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Alt: Wonder Woman
The Lowdown: The recipe for this list is always to take a carbon copy of the Mixing lineup, take out the musical, and substitute in an action film (they screwed this up last year with La La Land's outrageous nomination), but I think they'll get it right in 2017 with Baby Driver seeming like a more probable nominee than Wonder Woman, though you could make the argument that this is the best chance for either film to make the cut.
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