That being said, I'm about to take a hiatus from the blog (you hopefully won't notice too much, as there will be a bunch of articles that will be coming out, hopefully a lot but that will depend on how productive I am in the next three days), and I wanted a time capsule of sorts to look upon laughingly when I still thought all of the races were up-in-the-air, so I'm going to briefly predict seven of the major races, looking at nominations, but more taking a peak at the potential winners. Without further adieu...
There are still a lot of movies in this race, but honestly-I think most of the studios badly misjudged this year. The year-end glut in 2017 is something to behold. So many titles, including major contenders like The Shape of Water, Call Me By Your Name, Last Flag Flying, and The Post are opening late that I kind of wonder if none of them will be able to grab momentum to actually win. Sure, there will be nominations a-plenty, but films that have already gathered steam seem more likely to win. After all, no film has been released in December (like The Shape of Water and The Post, two of the more likely nominees thanks to buzz and pedigree surrounding them) and won Best Picture since The King's Speech. It's actually something of a misnomer that you need to be decorating for Christmas to win an Oscar in the top category.
As a result, I'm going to go with Dunkirk. I think that Get Out is a stretch, quite frankly; I'm still not convinced it's the Best Picture lock so many others do, as The Silence of the Lambs and The Sixth Sense (it's only recent horror movie predecessors) had more famous leads and weren't as overtly political, which could turn off older Oscar voters. So, in that vein, I think that the Best Picture winner may well be Dunkirk. This far out, it makes the most sense: it's a war film from a longtime (some would say) neglected director on the periphery with Oscar, a beautifully-shot film that was critically-acclaimed, and most importantly this year, it's had time percolate in people's minds as a theoretical masterpiece. Combine all that against a field that seems pretty lacking, and you have the frontrunner.
Best Director
It is difficult for me to see a world where Christopher Nolan doesn't win but Dunkirk does. Though Nolan isn't exactly an Academy favorite (he's never been cited for Best Director), he's had a nominated Best Picture in Inception and movies like Memento, The Dark Knight, and Interstellar were remembered when it comes to AMPAS. As a result, I think this could well be his Schindler's List or The Departed moment-a way of acknowledging, "yes you're worthy of this" even if a teensy bit of the trophy is more for a collective career than anything else.
That being said, occasionally that "collective career" trophy gets stampeded (just ask David Fincher), and if there is another contender, it could well be Guillermo del Toro. While not as adored by Oscar (really only Pan's Labyrinth has been a hit with AMPAS previously), del Toro has a signature style and will surely be nominated this year. If they want to go with an Alfonso Cuaron-style "we're not comfortable with this getting Best Picture, but we're aware you're a visionary" type win, I wouldn't be stunned, but honestly-this feels like Nolan's trophy even if Dunkirk gets thrown off in the top category.
When was the last time that Best Actor was this thin? Even in a year where none of the categories (so far) scream BEST IN AGES, Best Actor is unusually weak. The nominations field is genuinely a guessing game, with oft-neglected Oscar nominees trying for a comeback (Jake Gyllenhaal), frequent nominees who could get in by default (Denzel Washington, Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks), potentially dual leads from the same film (Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston), or hell, even someone under 25, a true departure for Oscar (Timothee Chalamet). I've even heard of a random "career recognition" nod for the likes of Sam Elliott or the late Harry Dean Stanton.
All of which is unfortunately where the suspense ends because Gary Oldman is winning this trophy. Like, there's no competition. I'm not sure if Oldman just got tired of waiting or if it's a happy coincidence he's in the most Oscar-bait role he could possibly find, but a real-life figure in a World War II epic where he wears prosthetics and gives large-and-impressive speeches is not going to lose. Certainly not when being played by one of the great actors of his generation, someone nearly everyone from the next generation cites as an influence (actors ranging from Brad Pitt to Matt Damon fall over themselves praising Oldman), and who has inexplicably never won an Oscar, and in fact has only been nominated once (in a year, for the record, I thought he should win). Oldman's taking this trophy to the bank unless he starts wearing a MAGA hat on the red carpet.
Actress is supposedly a much better category if you believe the buzz, though I'm a peon in Middle America so I can't vouch for this fact, since no one's bothered to open most of these movies where I can see them. That being said, the pedigree of the names this year is much higher. I think in a different year Kate Winslet might have been able to take it-word is she's marvelous in Wonder Wheel, but Woody Allen's controversy is still so toxic (and Winslet isn't great when it comes to tricky public statements the way Cate Blanchett was in 2013), so I think that she's probably out, maybe even a surprise snub for a nomination.
While there's a number of other stars making a play for actual nominations (Dench, Robbie, Ronan, Stone, perhaps even Gadot), the actual winner is going to be either Sally Hawkins or Frances McDormand. Hawkins has an edge in that she's in a bigger film, one certain to be on a lot of Best Picture ballots, and despite a few solid performances she's never won a trophy, but sci-fi/fantasy is such a hard sell when it comes to Oscar winners. Alec Guinness, Ian McKellen, Sigourney Weaver-it's a short list even of actors that have even gotten nominated for such films, and the only recent example of an actor taking the trophy for a fantasy-style film is Heath Ledger, who won as much for dying as he did for the actual work (I'm still not convinced that Ledger would have beaten Philip Seymour Hoffman had he been alive to campaign for that trophy). As a result, until I see proof otherwise I'm going with McDormand, an unlikely second trophy winner, but not one that feels wrong for the victory.
I have to note, though, how moronic Sony was not to release The Wife this year. In a field where there's no obvious frontrunner (and where, despite the pedigree of some of these women, I have to say we're looking at a less impressive field than the last couple of years), a six-time Oscar loser could have turned this race into her own private My Trip to Bountiful. It'd be one thing if The Wife wasn't good, but the critics I've read who talked about say it was a certain nomination, perhaps even a trophy. Considering how much Close has wanted this victory (and the fact that there's no guarantee next year will give her such an opening), this may well be her saying goodbye to her only shot at a competitive Oscar.
Hmm, this is the first field I genuinely don't think there's an obvious frontrunner. The other four seem pretty straight-forward to me, albeit I could buy arguments to the contrary. Of the main six, this is the field that I think could go any way, though if past awards seasons are any indication they'll probably stick to just one aging character actor and give him the Globe/SAG/BAFTA/Oscar even though it'd be so much more interesting if they spread the wealth.
I guess that aging character actor thing most accurately describes Richard Jenkins, whom I'm guessing is the victor here based solely on an Oscar points system. He's in a Best Picture frontrunner (points), he's straight but playing gay (also points), and he's a former nominee who has never won (again, points). Other leading contenders like Willem Dafoe, Michael Stuhlbarg, Kevin Spacey, and Laurence Fishburne could also be in the race, but none of them has all of the clear advantages that Jenkins does. Dafoe's an unhonored former nominee, but is in a considerably smaller film, Fishburne has to share the spotlight with two other leading men, Stuhlbarg has never been cited before so the nomination may feel like the victory (plus, he's the youngest of the contenders), and Spacey already has two Oscars even though he has the baitiest role. All-in-all, Jenkins is the good-on-paper contender, and occasionally that's enough (see also Jim Broadbent, Mark Rylance, Alan Arkin).
I have been saying for YEARS that Allison Janney will eventually win an Oscar nomination and that Laurie Metcalf is too good of an actor to ever miss with AMPAS if someone would just give her a role. Both actresses are probable nominees this year for I, Tonya and Lady Bird, respectively, and in Janney's case, I think she might well have the Oscar in the bag.
After all, Janney is playing a gorgon scene-stealer in a film that is getting mixed reviews but everyone says she's enormous in (cough, Renee Zellweger, cough), and she's one of the more popular actors in Hollywood. Giving her the Oscar will guarantee a string of clever, YouTube-friendly speeches, and recent years have seen the return of the character actress to this category even against the ingenues (Octavia Spencer, Patricia Arquette, Viola Davis). Janney makes sense, and much like JK Simmons a few years ago is the sort of actor who could win the first award of the season and everyone says "that's about right."
Should I, Tonya prove too trashy (perhaps she'll only a get a Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April kind of nomination), it's difficult to say who will pick up the baton. Metcalf could be a threat, but I feel like her role might be too light (same with previous winners Holly Hunter or Octavia Spencer). Melissa Leo hasn't gained enough goodwill since her crazy campaign last time, and Lesley Manville is too unknown with Oscar to win on her first try. Arguably the best shot for the win is Kristin Scott Thomas of the remainders, but the long-supporting wife is more of a nominee at this point in Oscar history than an actual winner (otherwise Helena Bonham Carter could have emerged in 2010). All of which is to say, I struggle to find someone more likely than Janney.
I only bring this race up because the actual winner seems SO hard to pin down. I can name a few films that are probable nominees such as Coco and The Breadwinner, and there are some movies that I think could steel their strong box office into nominations despite reviews (The Boss Baby) or past trepidation about the franchise (The Lego Batman Movie), but it's nearly impossible to find a movie that will actually win this trophy.
Coco is the most obvious contender, but here's a scary thought, and one that we should ponder considering how bankrupt Pixar's creativity has been in recent years-at what point does Pixar make a truly uninspired original film, one that's on-par with Cars? It could well happen, and while Coco looks beautiful in trailers, so (quite frankly) did Cars, which surprisingly lost to Happy Feet that year. If Coco flails, there's virtually no other realistic contender to take this trophy. Could we FINALLY see an independent movie make it like The Breadwinner? The only time we've had that happen was in 2002, when Spirited Away was so obviously better than all of the other nominees that no amount of "lack of box office" could prevent it from winning, and even then it won with Disney as its domestic distributor, something The Breadwinner can't boast. I would bet still on Coco, but honestly-if it falls, there's not really a precedented movie to catch it. And man did Laika pick the wrong season to take the year off.
Those are my predictions-weigh in with yours-who do you think ends up the winners in these seven categories this far out? Share your theories in the comments!
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