Can a Newcomer Land in this Year's Best Actress Race?

It has gotten to the point of cliche at this point, and in light of the Harvey Weinstein allegations perhaps a seedier underbelly than we should be comfortable with, but the Best Actress prize is often hallmarked by the beautiful young actress getting her first nomination.  I remember reading a few years ago that the average age of a Best Actress winner is 29, which is the same age as the youngest Best Actor winner, Adrian Brody.  While the category has done better in recent years when it comes to honoring more experienced actresses rather than the ingenue, it still isn't comparable, perhaps in large part due to the fact that with few exceptions (Streep, Mirren, Dench) there just aren't a lot of women over 50 who get to lead movies on a regular basis.

But looking at this year's Oscar race, I wonder if we might be in for a unique moment where, like we saw in 2013, all of the nominees have already been cited for their work previously by the Academy.  Most of the major names in this year's race are accomplished actresses who have been cited previously by Oscar.  Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Meryl Streep, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, even younger performers like Saoirse Ronan & Emma Stone are Oscar pros at this point.  I was curious to see if this was particularly unusual, or if it just feels unusual in the wake of youthful winners like Brie Larson.

Looking through the past 25 years of Oscars, it turns out that if 2017 doesn't have a breakout star, we're in for an a-characteristic lineup.  Only twice during that time period (1994 and 2013), did the field feature all previous nominees in the category, and with the additional exception of 2000, at least one of the first-timers was 35 or younger.  That's a pretty staggering lineup, especially considering a number of those winners in the 1990's ended up being victorious in their categories (Emma Thompson, Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Hilary Swank).

This isn't to say that these women receiving their first nominations didn't deserve them-in many cases the performances were very strong, but it is an encouraging trend that we're seeing more diversity of age in this category.  Another statistic I remember reading (again, this may need to be updated as it's a few years old) is that 67% of Oscar-nominated actors only get one nomination, so in most cases these nominations represent the only nomination many of these women will ever win.  That we are now seeing more and more performances that are worthy of awards attention for older actresses who may have missed citations earlier on in their career (women like Emmanuelle Riva, Charlotte Rampling, and Isabelle Huppert), is encouraging.

Admittedly there are some women that could be cited for the first time in Best Actress.  Margot Robbie has a surprise festival-hit in I, Tonya, and has yet been nominated, and Diane Kruger is making a play with In the Fade after scoring Best Actress at Cannes.  Claire Foy is a possibility for Breathe if that movie can get her a "Felicity Jones"-style nomination, and I keep hearing that Warner Brothers wants to make Wonder Woman a player so Gal Gadot is always a longshot possibility.  With the exception of Kruger (who is 41) all of these women would be able to extend the first-time nominee under 35 trend, though none of them really are what you'd consider a "strong" possibility in this race.  I'd argue Robbie has the best chance at this point, considering how well her career has been going lately (she's bound to make it at some point if she keeps this up), but the buzz for I, Tonya seems to have settled upon Allison Janney, and supporting roles don't have to come in pairs for nominations.  After all, recently Meryl Streep, Octavia Spencer, and Melissa McCarthy made it while Emily Blunt, Taraji P. Henson, and Kristen Wiig all went home empty-handed, and I, Tonya seems pretty slight against such formidable performances like Hawkins or McDormand.

As a result it does appear likely that this year will be filled with former nominees, and while if this is a new trend I'll probably raise an eyebrow (we don't want the Oscars to turn into the Emmys), I think this is an encouraging trend.  While I'll be stunned if we see a reverse trend in Best Actor (if Timothee Chalamet were a woman we'd already be talking about how he was going to win this year, but I'd be shocked if he is even nominated at this rate), Oscar taking baby steps is always a good thing.  And considering the talent of these women, we all will be reaping the rewards this fall in the form of good movies.