5 Thoughts on Jeff Flake's Retirement

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ)

The surprise announcement on Tuesday that Sen. Jeff Flake would not stand for reelection is the sort of thing that political pundits like to claim, in hindsight, was easy to see coming, but in reality was something no one was actually predicting.  While Sen. Flake's chances at winning reelection were nearing impossible (I would have placed him as the most-likely member of Congress to lose reelection next year, even if his seat didn't exchange hands), members of Congress run for reelection against staggering odds all-the-time.  Look at Blanche Lincolin 2010 or Nick Lampson in 2008-neither had any hope of winning another term, and yet they took a shot at it.  I assumed that Flake was going to be the same way, not letting his potential future career (he's only 54) go down because of Donald Trump.

But go down because of Trump it did, and considering how rarely we get Senate retirements (Flake is only the second person this cycle to not stand for reelection to the "World's Most Exclusive Club"), I figured it was worth taking a deep look into what this means for the Arizona seat, the battle for the Senate at large, and the future of the Republican Party.  As per usual, here are five thoughts:

State Sen. Kelli Ward (R-AZ)

1. This Helps the Republicans in the Short-Term...

The fact remains that this is probably good news for the Republicans looking at the immediate math of the decision, as Jeff Flake's career was effectively finished.  Damned by his criticism of Donald Trump in a primary, even against a relative gadfly like former State Sen. Kelli Ward (who perhaps loses more than anyone with this announcement), Flake wasn't going to be able to win a Republican primary, and were he to make it through, he is far, far too conservative to win a general election if Trump voters stayed home, particularly against a formidable Democrat.  Essentially, the NRSC would have had to spend a fortune trying to carry Flake through the primary (since he's an incumbent), which he'd likely lose, and then if they pulled off the miracle, spend another fortune on carrying him through the general election, which he'd also likely lose.  Now Cory Gardner doesn't have to worry about the primary, and could well end up with a far more palatable general election candidate, particularly if Rep. Martha McSally (a former Air Force fighter pilot and a talented fundraiser) makes the jump into the race.

Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ)

2. ...But it Might Destroy the Party in the Long-Term

Flake and Corker both retired not because they wanted to spend time with their families or run for higher office.  They might claim one way, but let's be honest here-they wanted to avoid a primary where they're constantly pitted against Donald Trump even though their records are that of a conservative Republican.  The Republican Party, through these retirements, has shown that pragmatic Republicans, ones who denounce the president, cannot succeed in federal politics, which is a damning and potentially cataclysmic turn-of-events.

After all, Flake is one of the most consistent conservatives in the Senate; he's voted with President Trump about 93% of the time and has voted for every single one of his appointees.  His criticism of the president has been almost entirely through talking points, not through actions; the same could be said for Sen. Corker.  Both of them are considered enemies of Trump's, and both are frequent targets of his Twitter wrath.  Their retirements indicate that Republicans critical of the president are no longer considered "conservative enough" regardless of their viewpoints on actual issues.  That's very, very dangerous-a political party that is entirely reliant on the popularity of a vengeful, erratic man is hardly a political party with a solid foundation.

It also means that there's no guarantee that Flake's successor will have the same level of effectiveness in the general election.  Arizona barely went for Trump last cycle, which means a Roy Moore-style candidate isn't going to fly here, but a bloody primary could ensue.  If Mitch McConnell could pick his hand-chosen candidate, Martha McSally would be the favorite for the general election, but McSally might have trouble showing her credentials as a Trump loyalist, and probably doesn't want McConnell's help considering what it did for Luther Strange.  She refused to recommend him in last year's general election, and could be in trouble if Ward (or another Trump loyalist) tries to label her the same way she did Flake.  That could spell trouble, particularly considering President Trump and Steve Bannon care way more about loyalty than electability.  Just because she's the best candidate is no guarantee she'll be the actual candidate; even without Flake in the race, I doubt that Bannon just waves the flag here.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)

3. The Democrats Math Doesn't Change Here

While the Republican race at the moment is a jumble, the Democrats remain set.  The DSCC scored arguably its biggest win of the cycle (well, perhaps second only to not having a retirement) when they convinced Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to jump into the race.  Sinema is, like McSally, a moderate member of her caucus and a vociferous fundraiser.  It is unlikely, even with an open seat, that any other Democrats in the state take on Sinema, instead probably waiting for a second Senate opening in 2022, when surely John McCain, who is battling brain cancer, will retire (tacky as it may be to say, McCain's precarious health and the potential that he could resign could deter some Republicans from getting into the race, knowing that they'd have a better shot without Sinema in the race than with her in it, as the Democrats have a small bench without her).

Sinema, though, has to now prove that the Democrats can compete statewide in the the Grand Canyon State.  No Democrat has won statewide here since 1988, one of the longest streaks in the country, and this will be a tough get even in a year that doesn't favor the Republicans.  Hillary Clinton came close here in 2016, but the Republicans still emerged victorious, as they tend to do in close elections-Sinema will need to prove that D's can get to 50%+1, not just 46%

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ)

4. Down-Ballot Effect Could Be Big

The down-ballot effect of Flake retiring could be the other major consequence for Republicans.  Chances for promotion don't happen often for the Arizona GOP, and there's likely a lot of ambitious pols in the state who might want to make a run for this spot.  Four Republicans in the House are reportedly taking a peak at the race (in addition to McSally, Reps. David Schweikert, Trent Franks, and Andy Biggs are all considering).  And of course, Sinema is already making a play here, which could have a huge effect on the makeup of Arizona's congressional delegation, as well as their seniority.

McSally's district, in particular, could be a tantalizing prospect for the DCCC.  While McSally won the race handily against a weak opponent in 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat in years to take the seat, besting Donald Trump by 2-points.  That could prove very consequential, as one could argue that McSally has a slight upper-hand at the moment, but an open seat would favor the Democrats.  The Democrats already have a strong, middle-of-the-road candidate in former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, the frontrunner to take the seat despite not being a Tucson native, though she'll have to get through a crowded primary.  As the "carpetbagging" tag isn't as relevant in recent years as it once was (people like Trey Hollingsworth and Alex Mooney have overcome it to win House seats), I doubt that Kirkpatrick who didn't have to switch states to run like Hollingsworth or Mooney, will lose much support for moving to the district, and seems to be handling it well (framing it as moving nearer her aging parents).  I'd go so far as to say that Kirkpatrick becomes the frontrunner if McSally moves to the Senate race or retires, getting the Democrats one seat closer to a majority in the House.

Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ)

5. Who's Next?

The last major question to ask here is-who is next?  Corker and Flake are hardly the only major Republicans who have publicly lambasted the president, and I doubt they're the last ones to drop out of the Senate in frustration with their party.  I still am shocked, quite frankly, that the only major-party switch this cycle was from Democrat to Republican (Jim Justice in West Virginia), rather than the other way around.  It feels, particularly with a huge transformational shift that a R to D would make more sense.

That being said, I do suspect we could see more retirements in the comings months and throughout Trump's term if he cannot find a way to better repair relationships with Congress.  Susan Collins recently declined a run for governor, despite much hoopla around the fact, and I wonder if she might have had it by 2020.  Sens. Roger Wicker and Deb Fischer seem to be in Steve Bannon's sights, and could pull a play out of Jeff Flake's book rather than suffer the indignity of losing a Senate primary.  And of course there's still a number of House Republicans who could be feeling the call to move on from Congress; Rodney Frelinghuysen, whose fundraising was anemic last quarter, seems a prime possibility.  All-in-all, Flake's retirement may be a shock, but I doubt he's the last Republican to become too frustrated to compete in a Trump-dominated GOP.