 |
| Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA), one of several retiring Republicans giving Democrats an opening in the House |
We're going to start off my "vacation but you won't notice" period with a monster of an article I've been meaning to write for a long time as I think it is time that we finally start talking about the House of Representatives, and the race that the Democrats have the best shot of winning next year. In the past week we have seen two very high-profile moves on this front, with two "moderate" (I'm still not entirely sure what that means in modern politics) Republican congressman announcing their retirements in districts that are definitely pickup opportunities for the Democrats: Reps. Charles Dent and Dave Reichert. Reichert, in particular, is a huge opportunity for the Democrats-this is a seat that Hillary Clinton won, and if President Trump has A) a traditional midterm and B) remains unpopular, this could be a huge opportunity for the Democrats that they probably wouldn't have had with Reichert, a popular former sheriff who incarcerated the Green River Killer and became something of a folk hero in Washington as a result, seeking another term. I made this list about two weeks ago with the intention of writing this article (these "State Of..." articles take an eternity to write, but I like them as a time capsule on where elections head so I keep going at them), but had to update to include Washington's 8th.
The main question for the Democrats in the House is simple-where does Donald Trump stand? While Democrats will shout out "gerrymandering" faster than Hodor will reply with his own name, the reality is that there are 24 seats that Republicans hold currently that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, just enough to take the House majority back. While winning those cleanly is probably impossible (I doubt very seriously that, say, Leonard Lance is automatically going to lose in NJ-7 as that's a well the Democrats have been to many times with little success), there are a number of marginal seats where the Democrats have actually done some interesting recruiting, and if Democrats can take, say, 20 of those seats, they might be able to pick up the rest from marginal (or even in some cases less-than-marginal) seats won by President Trump.
 |
| Amy McGrath (D-KY) |
One last caveat I want to put out there before we go to the list (the top race being the most likely to flip, in my opinion) is primaries. While there are still races where I think the Democrats need better candidates (Iowa's 3rd, New Jersey's 2nd, Florida's 18th, and Ohio's 1st all come to mind), the Democrats have done a very good job of at least getting a warm body in most contests. That can be costly, though, if we have to re-litigate the Clinton/Sanders debate again, with everyone running to the left as it doesn't appear like there are a lot of Republicans that will have to deal with primary challengers this year (yet). You can't win some of these marginal races in states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Minnesota with candidates from the far left (you need more centrist candidates that can swing back Obama-Trump voters to the D's), so if any primaries become toxic, that could be the death knell for a Democratic majority. Democrats need to be realistic in this regard-it's likely we'd only need 23 seats to win the majority back if Florida Democrats had backed Annette Taddeo over Joe Garcia in FL-26, as a scandal-free Democrat would have enjoyed Clinton's 16-point margin coattails.
Additionally, the Democrats have a large number of Clinton-won districts in California and Washington (eight in total, plus perhaps one additional opportunity in California if Duncan Hunter's scandal hurts him), but these states hold jungle primaries, where only the top two candidates get to go to the general. In the past, having too many candidates has hurt the Democrats as in districts the Democrats would have won, they split the vote and the Republicans got both candidates into the general (CA-31 in 2012 is the most glaring example of this happening). If the Democrats lose a major candidate (say, Reichert's congressional seat, where they have WAY too many gadfly candidates right now that could make things tricky), that'll hurt dramatically in the race for the majority.
All that being said, it's time to get to the list. As I mentioned above, the #1 is the seat I think is most likely to flip sides. Without further adieu...
 |
| State Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) |
I have a bit of a theory that at least some of the Obama-Trump voters are, in fact, blue-collar Democrats that could well return to the fold if they are given the candidate who would make that happen. Maine's 2nd, a district that historically has been friendly to blue-collar Democrats, went hard for Trump in 2016 (the first time in decades that the Democrats lost the district), and once again rejected State Sen. Emily Cain's bid to oust Rep. Bruce Poliquin. In 2018, the Democrats are trying a different tactic, countering Poliquin, a longtime politician who is personally wealthy, with State Rep. Jared Golden, a Iraq War veteran who might be a better fit for the blue-collar makeup of this district. Make no mistake-places like Maine-2, even ones that swung hard to Trump in 2016, will probably need to be in the cards for the Democrats to win the majority come next November. The question becomes-are these newfound Trump voters willing to look at Democrats again or did 2016 represent a seismic shift away from the party? This race could be telling in that regard.
24. Pennsylvania-15
Joining the list exclusively due to Dent's retirement, PA-15 is an interesting conundrum. Dent back in the day was able to dispatch solid Democratic challengers with relative ease despite this being the ultimate swing district (John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 103 votes, and it was a frequent pitstop for the senator and President Bush that campaign cycle), but his seat got shored up with redistricting (I'm going to try really, really hard not to constantly talk about gerrymandering here as I think it's a crutch that Democrats use as an excuse not to try, but Pennsylvania is really bad in that regard, which is why the Democrats desperately need Tom Wolf to win reelection as governor next year). Trump won this district by 7 points, but Romney took it by less than three, and if the Republicans have the nasty primary they're projecting right now (between Dent's protege State Rep. Ryan McKenzie and conservative challenger State Rep. Justin Simmons), they may be able to take this. First, though, they need a decent candidate as it's not clear if they can do better than Coplay Mayor Bill Leiner. This race is still forming, but with a solid candidate it could be competitive.
23. Minnesota-3
At the top of the list of Republicans the Democrats were hoping would retire in 2018, I think the list would have read Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Dave Reichert, and they've gotten both of them off the list. If there was a third place my gut says they'd prefer it be Erik Paulsen, a mild-mannered suburban Republican who is able to win with ease in a district that moved sharply for Hillary Clinton (an 8-point gain over Obama's margin in 2016). Paulsen's personal popularity is still very powerful, as State Sen. Terri Bonoff found out last cycle (a quality candidate, she just couldn't catch onto Hillary's coattails), but the Democrats will now be able to tie Paulsen to Trump more easily and with actual votes. The Democrats seem to be trying a play from the MN GOP's playbook (where they attempted to get Stewart Mills elected on the Iron Range), picking wealthy vodka distributor Dean Phillips as their candidate. It remains to be seen if Phillips can retail politick as well as Paulsen, but he can donate his own money and could be formidable. Then again, let's not forget that Mills lost both of his races, so he'll need to connect with voters here.
 |
| Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KY) |
One of the bigger surprises I came across while looking at presidential results from last year is that Hillary Clinton somehow won a district in Kansas, albeit the swingiest district in the state, encompassing Kansas City and its suburbs. Democrats still lost by a pretty wide margin considering Clinton's victory (Rep. Kevin Yoder took the third by 9-points), but they're trying again, likely with the same candidate in businessman Jay Sidie, though he has a large crowd in the primary he'll have to dispatch. Sidie actually seemed like a solid candidate in the 3rd even if his numbers at the end-of-the-day don't reflect that, and with the unpopularity of both Trump and Gov. Sam Brownback in the Sunflower State, he'll be able to use his party label with a bit more pride than you'd expect from a red-state Democrat.
21. New Jersey-5
Our first seat on the list that the Democrats won in 2016, Rep. Josh Gottheimer is trying for a second term in a district that President Trump won, but by just a point (a smaller margin than Mitt Romney in 2012). Gottheimer ran a solid campaign that year, but was helped immensely by missteps from Rep. Scott Garrett, particularly remarks he made about gay Republicans that came across as homophobic (because, well, they were). Gottheimer has a number of challengers that are potentially going to jump into the race, including TV host Lou Dobbs who has been rumored for the seat, but he may once again luck out on the poor candidate front if former Mayor Steve Lonegan (a frequent candidate for office in New Jersey) wins the primary. Lonegan would be much easier to dispatch for Gottheimer than a moderate member of the State Assembly, as several are rumored for this seat. I think the Republican primary is still in the formation phases here, so watch to see how many candidates get in or decline.
20. Pennsylvania-6
PA-6 sits as one of the larger white whales that the Democrats still have somehow never caught, even for one cycle (anyone else remember Lois Murphy?), and once again they are trying after Hillary Clinton (barely) took this district even though Mitt Romney won it (one of a number of Romney-Clinton districts that are highlighted here). So far the Democrats have managed to avoid a serious primary (which is why PA-6 on this list while PA-7 is somewhere around #28 on this list), as Chrissy Houlahan has cleared the primary despite never holding public office before or even running for it. The former Air Force veteran and non-profit executive has posted impressive fundraising numbers and already had the backing of Emily's List, so money won't be a problem. The question is whether she will be able to tie Rep. Ryan Costello to President Trump, something that Keystone State Democrats have not been able to accomplish in the past.
 |
| Antonio Delgado (D-NY) |
I suspect that Trump's longtime ties to New York might have helped him a bit in the Empire State even if Hillary Clinton is at least (nominally) associated with the state as well, so I keep NY-19 on this list despite it having a healthy number of Obama-Trump voters (Clinton lost here by 6 points while Obama won by roughly the same margin). Attorney Antonio Delgado seems to be the D's preferred candidate and out-raised Rep. John Faso in the district for the second straight quarter, and Faso could be in trouble in the district if Delgado continues at this pace as upstate New York has been very susceptible to waves even if it historically like white-collar Republicans. Delgado's biggest problem may be the primary, where businessman Brian Flynn has deep pockets (he's already loaned his campaign half a million dollars), and could potentially lead to a tough primary that would benefit Faso. Still, the Republican incumbent is not running as aggressive of a campaign as the NRCC probably wishes he was.
18. Iowa-1
Iowa was one of the biggest swings in terms of Obama-Trump supporters, to the point where some pundits are now starting to write it off as a swing state (in a similar vein to Ohio). I think this is premature (pundits generally like to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt at an electoral level in my opinion-no one was saying after 2008 that Florida was no longer a swing state, after all), but 2018 could be telling. This is a district that President Obama won by 14-points that Hillary Clinton lost by three, so if there's a return to the fold at all for the Obama-Trump supporters, this is the critical district for it. The Democrats have two major candidates vying to take on Rep. Rod Blum, and while the DCCC probably prefer young State Rep. Abby Finkenauer (clearly a rising star in the party), they may have better luck with State Sen. Jeff Danielson, a longer-time political figure who also is a navy veteran. Either way watch this race-if Democrats can't take it now, it probably is indicative that Iowa is no longer the swing state that it once as, as a Democratic candidate for POTUS can't win the Hawkeye State without a solid margin here.
17. Florida-7
One of the biggest surprises in terms of candidate quality of 2016 was Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who managed to pull off a victory over Rep. John Mica in the 7th district, despite being a political neophyte at the time and a last minute addition to the race (she wasn't running until June of 2016, a date so late it's basically unheard for someone who is taking on an incumbent to actually win from that short start point). While Clinton won the district in 2016, this was a tied seat in 2012 and Republicans have long held it Congress, so expect a number of people to come out of the woodwork here, particularly State Rep. Mike Miller (who is already running) and State Sen. David Simmons. Look at this race to see the direction of Florida as a state, and how quickly it might be shifting blue, as people like John McCain and George W. Bush routed here-is this a temporary change brought on by Mica's unpopularity, or can Murphy become a big star in the Democratic Party, potentially even a challenger to Marco Rubio in 2022?
 |
| Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) |
I always chuckle whenever I bring up one of the swingiest districts in the country, as it constantly seems like Carol Shea-Porter is the underdog for another term in Congress, and yet her win percentage remains pretty damn solid. For those unfamiliar, Shea-Porter pulled off a massive upset win in 2006 (one of those "only in a wave" situations), and then proceeded to win in '08, lose in '10, win in '12, lose in '14, and then once again emerge victorious in 2016. This year she won't have her longtime rival Rep. Frank Guinta in the race, which will probably hurt as at this point I feel like the district is sick of both of them, but she will have the advantage of running in a midterm that will be friendlier to Democrats, which is how her career started in the first place. It's worth noting this is another Obama-Trump district, but it was only marginally so and Obama won here twice. Republicans look likely to have a very spirited race, but this is almost certainly going to be decided by national mood. Shea-Porter never looks solid, but she frequently wins, so counting her out would be a foolish course-of-action.
15. California-10
California, as I mentioned up-top, is a hard state to get a grasp upon, and not just because there are so many Democratic challengers. The Golden State has swung heartily to the left in recent elections, with Hillary Clinton securing a 30-point margin over Donald Trump (keep in mind as recently as 2004 John Kerry only won the state by 10-points). That resulted in seven Republicans being in districts that Clinton beat Trump in, and could be the last stand of the Republican Party in the state if Nancy Pelosi has anything to say about it (I suspect that winning those seats on her home turf is going to be integral to her plans to win the majority and secure the Speaker's gavel come January). CA-10 is strange in that it's also a district that President Obama won, but Rep. Jeff Denham has been impervious to Democratic challengers despite Democrats dominating at the top of the ticket (Rep. David Valadao in CA-21 is another challenger similar to Denham in this regard, but I have less confidence in his challengers despite his district being an easier target on-paper, which is why he's not on this list). While there are a number of Democrats running here, potentially setting the Democrats up for "jungle primary heartbreak," venture capitalist Josh Harder has emerged as a nominal frontrunner, at least from his fundraising prowess, taking in $400k last quarter. The big question here is if the Democrats can keep Republicans home. It's very probable at this point that the Republicans don't have a candidate make it through in the gubernatorial jungle primary, and without a presidential election it's possible dampened turnout could hurt incumbents like Denham immensely. Considering that these seats will be hard to win back (no incumbent Democrat in Congress from California has lost reelection since 1994, and the Democrats haven't dropped a seat in the state since 1998), that could be a huge blow for Paul Ryan's chances in 2018 and beyond.
14. California-48
On paper, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's district isn't what you'd consider one of the easier pickup opportunities for the Democrats of Hillary's California Seven, but few congressmen (and by my count no congressman from a district Clinton won) has more fervently aligned himself to the Trump administration. Rohrabacher, while not yet directly involved with the Russian investigation of the president by either Robert Mueller or the House/Senate committees looking into the alleged election misconduct, has long been a vocal advocate of better American ties to Russia, and has worked closely in the past with figures in the Trump investigation such as Paul Manafort, Natalia Veselnitskaya, and Viktor Grin. Rohrabacher has attracted several Democratic opponents, including biomedical CEO Han Keirstead, who might be considered the nominal frontrunner for the D's, though they once again have to watch out for a jungle primary (perhaps here more than anyplace), as former State Rep. Scott Baugh (R) is running against Rohrabacher with similar attack lines toward the incumbent. Still, if the Democrats manage to get a candidate through to the general, Rohrabacher's ties to Russia could prove toxic.
 |
| Bryan Caforio (D-CA) |
Last year, despite largely being underwhelmed in the House election, Bryan Caforio (a California attorney) did surprisingly well against incumbent Rep. Steve Knight. Now, with considerably more name recognition he's been doing quite well in fundraising, though he does have a relatively strong opponent in non-profit executive Katie Hill, who has done decently in fundraising. CA-25 swung hard to Hillary Clinton this past cycle, as Mitt Romney won the district by 2-points while Clinton took it by 7, and so this could be another case where Clinton-Romney voters will decide the election. While I think this is fertile territory, it is worth noting a word of caution here-Clinton/Romney voters pretty much fell back in line in places like Georgia-6 in their special election earlier this year, though the GOP won't have the advantage of putting all of their resources into CA-25 in a general election like they did against Jon Ossoff.
12. Nebraska-2
Lost in the aftermath of Clinton's enormous disappointment in WI/PA/MI was the fact that Nebraska, one of only two states to divide out electoral votes by congressional district, once again nearly sent one of its electors for the Democrats, as the second district saw Trump win by less than three points, another big turn compared to 2012 where Mitt Romney won by seven. This year we're almost certainly looking at a rematch, with incumbent Rep. Don Bacon battling against the man he beat out in 2016, former Rep. Brad Ashford. Ashford hasn't been a particularly strong fundraiser in the past but that may not matter if there's a national headwind-he only lost last year by 1-point and he's well-liked in the district, albeit not enough to beat back Clinton's coattails. I suspect that the DCCC may put some extra time here knowing that Ashford has already served, and in some ways some people assume he's still the incumbent in the district, making this a tossup.
11. Minnesota-2
Honestly, this is one of the bigger surprises of the 2016 election, and almost certainly a result of Donald Trump doing better in the Midwest than most people anticipated, as pretty much every pundit assumed that health care executive Angie Craig (D) would best controversial radio host Jason Lewis. Lewis, however, managed to defeat Craig, and looks set for a rematch this year. This district is a competitive one, and though it's Obama-Trump, neither won the district by more than two points. Lewis could be in trouble in terms of coattails, as it seems like the Democrats will have an advantage in the gubernatorial/Senate races, but Minnesota is one of the few states where turnout is rarely a problem (it regularly is amongst the highest per-capita voting percentages in the country). Craig will need a national headwind as she had a lot of advantages that will be erased from the past cycle (namely, that Lewis now has the powers of incumbency at his disposal), but it's hard to imagine the Democrats winning the House majority without this seat in their pocket.
 |
| Jim Hagedorn (R-MN) |
On the opposite end of the spectrum for Minnesota is the open seat of Tim Walz, one of two Democratic districts that have incumbents leaving office (in both cases to pursue higher office, as Walz is running for governor). MN-1 had a huge shift toward Donald Trump this past year, as it went from a district Obama won by 1-point in 2012 to one that Trump took by 15 points, and nearly ousted Walz in the process (he bested a virtual unknown by less than 3000 votes). This cycle the Republicans have struggled to get a top quality candidate (thus far it's only Jim Hagedorn, who lost the last two cycles), but State Sens. Carla Nelson and Dave Senjem are both mentioned frequently for the seat. On the Democratic side, it seems to be either Dan Feehan, who served in the Obama administration and is an army veteran, and former State Sen. Vicki Jensen, who could benefit greatly if she gets support from Emily's List (a very strong possibility). Democrats gain from potentially having Walz on the ballot come next November and if 2016 was a fluke, but they have to be nervous that that swing was a permanent thing as no one running will have the personal popularity of Walz to be able to best a Republican tide that strong.
9. Texas-23
The Democrats got dealt a pretty large blow this past month when former Rep. Pete Gallego declined a rematch against incumbent Rep. Will Hurd, but all is not lost in one of Texas's largest districts. Democrats seem to have their first strong candidate in the district in former Trade Representative Official (and yet another Iraq War veteran) Gina Ortiz Jones. Ortiz Jones has a few advantages in this district, but perhaps none greater than it is an Hispanic-majority district, one of the only ones in the country that is currently represented by a Republican. As you can imagine, it will be very hard for Hurd to be able to keep his base happy in TX-23 while also holding off President Trump's DACA repeal, which is wildly unpopular with Hispanic voters. This is a district that, once again, features the Romney/Clinton split, and so it's not entirely clear if those are lost voters or a one-time jet over to the Democrats (it's worth noting that Hurd wasn't linked to Trump to the point of losing last time), but this is a tough race, and one that will remain competitive regardless of what happens with Texas redistricting.
8. Colorado-6
I can imagine Republicans who read this blog may look at CO-6 being so high and roll their eyes. After all, Democrats return to try and take out Mike Coffman every year like the swallows at Capistrano, but I have two words for you: Connie Morella. Also Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson, and Jim Leach. You can only hold back your district's instincts so long, and Coffman is going to have to fend off President Trump, who lost this district by 9-points, and a huge push by Democrats to link the two of them together. Democrats could have two strong candidate in the district, as Iraq War Veteran Jason Crow has taken an early lead, but State Sen. Rhonda Fields could also make a play in the district. This has been on the target list before, but if Trump is toxic nationally this could finally be the time the Democrats actually best Coffman.
 |
| Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) |
For a while there I was starting to worry that the Democrats might not be able to find a candidate for this district, which would be a huge shame as this is a seat that Hillary Clinton won by 16-points, but they seem to have their standard-bearer in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who ran a solid (if unsuccessful) State Senate race last year and showed a strong fundraising prowess. Curbelo's personal popularity is evident here (he clobbered former Rep. Joe Garcia in 2016), and Mucarsel-Powell has to make it through the primaries (this district dealt the DCCC a death blow last year when they picked Garcia over the more palatable Annette Taddeo), but this is going to be a tough hold. Curbelo will have to fight against his party's stances on healthcare, climate change, and immigration, all of which they're on the wrong side of for this majority-Hispanic district.
6. Arizona-2
Rep. Martha McSally is hardly a stranger to close races, but Arizona's 2nd district will probably pose a challenge for her in 2016. McSally won a relatively decent margin in 2016 against an underwhelming challenger, but this is a district that had a hard-left turn for the Democrats in 2016 (yet another Romney/Clinton district), and McSally will probably get a better challenger in 2018 as former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is making a play for the seat. While Kirkpatrick isn't from the district, opening her up to carpet-bagging claims, in recent years carpet-bagging hasn't been a huge issue (just ask Trey Hollingsworth or Alex Mooney, both of whom switched states to run successfully for the House), and Kirkpatrick is a major powerhouse when it comes to campaigning (witness her surprisingly hanging on in 2014 while most of her fellow Democrats in red districts lost). Combine that with Donald Trump repeatedly hurting Sen. Jeff Flake's chances with hard-right conservatives (who could sit out the election to "teach Flake a lesson") and you have another classic tough race for McSally, who may not be able to fight the tide in a district that is increasingly friendly to Democrats.
5. Nevada-3
At #5 we have the toughest hold the Democrats currently have on the map. The DSCC was surely overjoyed when Rep. Jacky Rosen gave them the candidate they wanted against Dean Heller, but the DCCC surely was scrambling in an Obama/Trump district where they have very little bench. The Republicans are lining up to take a shot here, with the leading contender being State Sen. Scott Hammond though others may enter. Democrats don't have any major declared candidate yet, and seem to be leaning toward Susie Lee, a wealthy philanthropist who ran for Ruben Kihuen's open seat last year but lost in the primaries. Other candidates mentioned include State Sens. Nicole Cannizzaro and Joyce Woodhouse, but it's telling that none of these three women have actually made the plunge into the race. This could well be a blessing for the Democrats if 2018 ends up being a good cycle for them (winning a Senate seat to go along with a House seat based on a wave), but time is ticking for them to take on Hammond.
 |
| State Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) |
Rep. Barbara Comstock is hardly someone who can't win an election. Let's put that right out there before I write her chances off of winning; she's made it through twice and theoretically could win again. That being said, the Top 4 here I have a tough time seeing the Democrats not taking at this juncture, and the reason for that in Virginia is that this district has perpetually been close, regularly turning more and more blue before in 2016 it went there in a big way, delivering Hillary Clinton a double-digit victory where Barack Obama lost in 2012. Comstock has a bevy of top-shelf challengers, which may help her if the primary turns nasty, as what was once assumed to be a coronation for State Sen. Jennifer Wexton has turned into a real race, as two of her neophyte opponents (Alison Kiehl Friedman and Lindsey Davis Stover) have raised over $400k. Still, the primary would have to be pretty ugly for one of these women not to be able to take out Comstock, who is on a lot of borrowed time right now in a district that is galloping to the left.
3. California-49
It doesn't take a scientist to figure out which House incumbent is the most vulnerable to lose reelection: it will take a major change of national mood for Rep. Darrell Issa to win another term in Congress next year. In yet another Romney/Clinton district (both won the seat by 7-points), you have two serious Democratic challengers going against Issa: his '16 rival Doug Applegate, who lost by less than 2000 votes, and attorney Ed Meier, who actually out-raised Applegate last quarter. Either way, with no other Republicans in the race so far it's virtually assured that Issa will face a Democratic challenger in 2018's general election, and thanks to years of haranguing Barack Obama & Hillary Clinton, it's hard to see him winning over many Clinton voters when the attention turns to his race only. Combine that change-of-sentiment about him with pretty valid accusations that he's become out-of-touch with his constituents (it was reported that he was hiding from his voters on the roof of a building while they stood outside his office), and an already tough environment for the GOP, especially in California, and you have the best shot the Democrats have of ousting an incumbent.
 |
| State Sen. Dino Rossi (R-WA) |
I debated between CA-49 and WA-8 for the second place spot, as WA-8 has a history of electing moderate Republicans (Jennifer Dunn, followed by Dave Reichert), and the jungle primary has me nervous, but it's hard to see this seat as being anything better than Tilts Democratic at this point for the GOP. The Dems have a seat that Clinton won, the Republicans could struggle to find a challenger (they may once again go to the Dino Rossi well), and this is the sort of seat that was born to flip to the Democrats. I suspect the DCCC will want to clear out most of the current candidates, none of whom are particularly impressive, and will probably try and attract someone like State House Majority Leader Pat Sullivan to make the jump into the race rather than stick to a virtual unknown. Opportunities to move up in Washington for Democrats are not common (legislators tend to stick around a while), so I doubt they let this pass.
1. Florida-27
Finally, we have the only Republican-held district in the country that seems like a lost cause already for the GOP, FL-27. Left vacant by the retirement of popular Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (who likely could have had the seat as long as she wanted it even with the liberal bent), this is a seat that Hillary Clinton won by 20-points and the Republicans are going to be hard-pressed to hold (to the point that if they do, the Democrats have totally bombed in the midterms). Both sides have a long list of candidates, though it does appear that State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) has become the establishment choice to win, and starts with an advantage. Either way, a 20-point margin is impossible to overcome during a midterm where you're in the White House-the NRCC may just give up on this one by next year.
No comments:
Post a Comment