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| Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) |
The biggest headline out of the Republican Primary in Alabama was hardly that Roy Moore won, that was something we knew was going to happen for a while. The combination of the Republican establishment's intense unpopularity with voters, combined with Strange's ties to disgraced former Gov. Robert Bentley made him the underdog in this race even with President Trump's vociferous (but considering his deleted tweets this morning, hardly deep) support for Sen. Strange.
No, the biggest headline was how Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, became a major lightning rod in the race, akin to how Republicans usually talk about Barack Obama or Nancy Pelosi. Moore ran ads talking about if he was elected, McConnell would no longer be Senate Majority Leader. While Moore can't decide that overnight (he will soon learn he has 51 fellow colleagues in his caucus who have a say on that matter), it is telling to McConnell that he already struggles to get legislation passed with his current majority, not being able to fulfill a campaign promise of seven years this past week with the Graham-Cassidy healthcare bill. Having another member that views him with contempt and distrust (ala Ted Cruz) isn't going to make his life easier. McConnell can rest easy knowing that there's no obvious contender to take his place at this point, but a bad midterm could sour the rest of the caucus to him, and he's not winning allies by having more Roy Moore's on his team.
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| Judge Roy Moore (R-AL) |
Before this election, Republicans could easily dismiss Moore as a regional figure, someone that was hardly representative of their politics, but instead was just a local figure in Alabama, a gadfly in the party. That can no longer be the case. As Cory Gardner stated yesterday in his role as chairman of the NRSC, "Roy Moore will be imperative in passing a conservative agenda, and we support him in keeping this seat in Republican hands." Moore is now linked to every Republican, whether they like it or not, as he will (probably) be a member of their club very soon.
This means that people like Dean Heller and Jeff Flake, both facing right-wing challengers in their primaries and tough Democratic challengers (likely two Democratic congresswomen, though Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is taking way too much time on that announcement, in my opinion), will have to face questions about past Moore statements that are going to be a political tightrope. Moore has previously stated that he doesn't think Keith Ellison should serve in Congress as he doesn't think Muslims should be able to serve, that he thinks homosexuality should be illegal, and was twice fired from the judiciary for not following the Constitution. He is part of the Birther movement, and has blamed terrorist attacks on gay people and women who get abortions. And this was all before he had a national platform where he can get on C-Span or any major news network and have the words "senator" and "Republican" linked together. Between Trump and Moore, it's probable that Flake and Heller will be in rough shape, as their Republican challengers will wholly embrace the two men in hopes of gaining more votes in the primary, while their Democratic challengers will use them as an attack against a general election who thinks of them as extremists. This all leads to...
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| State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-MS) |
Moore's victory has to have emboldened the Republicans who were thinking about getting into races against incumbents prior to this week. Moore provided a blueprint for other challengers to run off of, not just linking their opponents to Democrats, but to Mitch McConnell as well. It seems that the more conservative aspect of the GOP base now views McConnell, whom President Trump has framed as being the main reason his agenda isn't succeeding (alongside Paul Ryan, though McConnell seems to be taking the brunt), and it's sinking in with the base. That makes it easier for challengers that are already in the races like Kelli Ward and Danny Tarkanian to wage winning races despite their incumbents still being relatively conservative Republicans, and could open the door for more challengers. Already State Sen. Chris McDaniel, who ran a nasty, brutal, and nearly victorious campaign against long-time Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014 now seems likely to try the same tactics against Roger Wicker in 2018. McDaniel, Ward, and to a lesser-degree Tarkanian would certainly come from the Roy Moore wing of the party, and could pose a serious threat to a leadership challenge to Mitch McConnell.
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| Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) |
It still has to be said, though, that Mitch McConnell's (or perhaps more appropriately at this point, the Republicans' majority) is still pretty solid, though it's getting a bit wobblier. Republicans have done relatively well with recruitment, but if there is any sort of wave, it's going to be hard to best incumbent Democrats (the last time an incumbent Democratic senator lost in a year that the Democrats gained House seats was 2000 with Chuck Robb in Virginia). Let's assume a particularly rosy picture where the left holds all of their incumbents (a stretch, but not one that is impossible if you look at individual race dynamics, particularly if the most vulnerable McCaskill, Donnelly, & Heitkamp can pull it off), and that the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot and lose both Arizona and Nevada (again, not what I'd predict is likely to happen, but at this point I'd give it 50/50 odds if Sinema jumps into the race). That still puts them at 50 seats, and Mike Pence is still the tie-breaker. They need one more seat, and Roy Moore remains the on-paper favorite in Alabama.
But on Tuesday, Sen. Bob Corker gave Chuck Schumer another avenue, albeit one that's relatively narrow like his shot in Alabama. With Sen. Bob Corker's retirement, it gives him an unexpected open seat that would have been an easy hold for the Republicans had Corker stayed in office. You may quibble, but no one thought that Illinois could possibly flip until it did in 2010 or that Indiana could possibly flip in 2012 until it did or that Scott Brown would somehow hold the seat Ted Kennedy had held for nearly 50 years. Tennessee law actually might help the Democrats a bit in getting their right-wing candidate-unlike most states, the The Volunteer State has no primary runoff, so if there's a bevy of candidates in the race, a hard-right Tea Partier might be able to win with, say, 25% of the vote. Already Rep. Marsha Blackburn is running, but I suspect we'll soon see other ambitious pols (and first-timers) get into the race. If the Democrats can coalesce around one, solid candidate like Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, they may well have another opportunity here. Schumer would get WAY more money the the DSCC if he could open up one more seat as it'd give him a real shot at the majority, and let's never forget-winning the Senate majority is a game of chess. If he can minimize his losses(such as holding his minority to 49 or 50, while the Democrats take the House), he could translate into a majority in 2020 where Republicans have to defend purple states such as North Carolina, Maine, and Colorado.
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| State Sen-elect Annette Taddeo (D-FL) |
The Alabama primary wasn't the only major race on Tuesday-the Democrats also picked up a south Florida State Senate seat, where Annette Taddeo bested State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz for an open GOP-held seat. The district is interesting because it had a hard-left swing toward Hillary Clinton in 2016, with the former Secretary of State winning the seat by 17-points. That may actually have given pause to Democrats, who saw Taddeo only win by 3.7 points. After all, they have a seat that's largely been written off by pundits that was vacated by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, but was easily won by Clinton in 2016. If Diaz can come close, should her seat be considered a lost cause?
I can see their argument, but I want to frame it another way. Diaz is (or would be, were it not for a quirk in Florida election law that requires him to resign to run for higher office), a sitting officeholder in the area, while Taddeo was bordering on frequent candidate with this election, having lost bids for Congress in 2008 and 2016, as well as a play for lieutenant governor in 2014. She's hardly a model candidate. Additionally, this is a special election, which inherently helps Republicans. Next year will be a much higher-turnout affair, particularly with competitive Senate and Governor's races. That higher turnout will inevitably help Democrats in their quest to take FL-27, Ros-Lehtinen's open seat. I personally view Taddeo's victory as the high bar for how Republicans can do in FL-27, and they still lost.
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