(Note: It's not actually all categories. I'm skipping Foreign Film, Documentary, and the Shorts because I don't see enough of those each year to make an informed decision).
Everybody Wants Some!!!
Jackie
A Monster Calls
Moonlight
Silence
Gold: Moonlight-I think the best experience I've had in a theater since Boyhood.
Silver: I think it'd be a close race between Jackie and EWS, but I'd lean toward the Linklater.
Bronze: Jackie completely upends what we expect from a biopic, telling a truly compelling tale about an icon.
Director
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Richard Linklater, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Gold: Jenkins, by a country mile.
Silver: Linklater, who finds ways to make his movies so fully-felt, even upon repeat viewings.
Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Juliette Binoche, L'Attesa
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Tilda Swinton, A Bigger Splash
Gold: Portman, an actor I run hot-and-cold on but when she's on (Closer, Black Swan, and now Jackie), she's basically untouchable.
Silver: Adams, who under-emotes so well that her big moments are that much stronger and more sincere.
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Zootopia
Winner?: Moonlight, surely, with all of that wonderfully chosen dialogue.
Runner-Up: I think Lonergan's playwright's sensibility generally provides him with excellent moments in his movies.
Director
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Richard Linklater, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Gold: Jenkins, by a country mile.
Silver: Linklater, who finds ways to make his movies so fully-felt, even upon repeat viewings.
Bronze: Scorsese, giving us his best film this century.
Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Adam Driver, Paterson
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Logan Lerman, Indignation
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Gold: Affleck, provided I can get past the politics of that decision, is giving the best performance in his film and his category-possibly the best lead male performance in a few years.
Silver: Rhodes, who finds a vulnerability that isn't always on the page.
Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Adam Driver, Paterson
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Logan Lerman, Indignation
Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
Gold: Affleck, provided I can get past the politics of that decision, is giving the best performance in his film and his category-possibly the best lead male performance in a few years.
Silver: Rhodes, who finds a vulnerability that isn't always on the page.
Bronze: Garfield, totally committing to the difficult faith of a man constantly tested.
Actress
Amy Adams, Arrival
Juliette Binoche, L'Attesa
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Tilda Swinton, A Bigger Splash
Gold: Portman, an actor I run hot-and-cold on but when she's on (Closer, Black Swan, and now Jackie), she's basically untouchable.
Silver: Adams, who under-emotes so well that her big moments are that much stronger and more sincere.
Bronze: Binoche is so superb so often these days it's hard to wonder if she's over-rewarded, but as a woman processing grief she gives another chapter of her genius.
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Tyler Hoechlin, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Glen Powell, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Gold: Ali, who finds a soul and a heart in a character that is only given moments to connect with the audience, but you feel him even as Chiron becomes an adult.
Silver: Powell slightly over Hoechlin, if only because he steals more of the movie.
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Tyler Hoechlin, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Glen Powell, Everybody Wants Some!!!
Gold: Ali, who finds a soul and a heart in a character that is only given moments to connect with the audience, but you feel him even as Chiron becomes an adult.
Silver: Powell slightly over Hoechlin, if only because he steals more of the movie.
Bronze: Hoechlin, bringing an intense amount of movie-star swagger to his role.
Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Dakota Johnson, A Bigger Splash
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Gold: Harris, who finds different depths of her character as we move across triptychs.
Silver: Williams, probably, for that devastatingly effective late "can we have lunch?" scene.
Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Dakota Johnson, A Bigger Splash
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Gold: Harris, who finds different depths of her character as we move across triptychs.
Silver: Williams, probably, for that devastatingly effective late "can we have lunch?" scene.
Bronze: Monae in a slight bid over Spencer, if only for her big courtroom scene.
Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Zootopia
Winner?: Moonlight, surely, with all of that wonderfully chosen dialogue.
Runner-Up: I think Lonergan's playwright's sensibility generally provides him with excellent moments in his movies.
Bronze: Silence
Original Screenplay
Embrace of the Serpent
Everybody Wants Some!!!
From Afar
Jackie
Original Screenplay
Embrace of the Serpent
Everybody Wants Some!!!
From Afar
Jackie
The Lobster
Winner?: The dialogue and plotting of Everybody Wants Some!!! just worked miracles for me. Though Linklater always does that to me lately.
Runner-Up: I'd probably go with Jackie, if only because of the odd twists it takes with a story you know by heart.
Animated Feature
Moana
Winner?: The dialogue and plotting of Everybody Wants Some!!! just worked miracles for me. Though Linklater always does that to me lately.
Runner-Up: I'd probably go with Jackie, if only because of the odd twists it takes with a story you know by heart.
Animated Feature
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Winner?: Zootopia occasionally feels like it might be overrated and Moana might be underrated, but I genuinely loved both-I'm reserving judgment here until we get to the OVP as I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini and I could see either sneaking into the finals.
Cinematography
Jackie
Knight of Cups
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Winner?: Moonlight, with its haunting changes in perspective and the subtle uses of color, particularly at night.
Runner-Up: Probably Knight of Cups-Malick movies used to be nominated by Oscar here as a default, and probably still should all things considered-this is still the height of beauty.
Costume
The Dressmaker
Everybody Wants Some!!!
Hail Caesar
Jackie
Silence
Winner?: Jackie, by a longshot-you can feel the stiffness of those pillbox hats and suits.
Runner-Up: The Dressmaker was all gaudy fun, and it's hard to argue that it's consistently gorgeous.
Film Editing
Arrival
Everybody Wants Some!!!
Jackie
Moonlight
The Witch
Winner?: Moonlight makes the most of its three-part plotting.
Runner-Up: Arrival finds fun uses for time and flashbacks in its film that don't feel particularly gimmicky (an accomplishment at this point).
Makeup & Hairstyling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail Caesar
Jackie
Silence
Sing Street
Winner?: Jackie-the way that they use subtle shifts in Portman's appearance to tell different story lines, but without leaning on it too heavily-subtle makeup and completely accurate hairstyling deserves its reward too.
Runner-Up: Silence finds ways to transform their characters, and the use of dirt and blood rarely feels painted on and more like something that actually happened through the rigors of shooting.
Production Design
Jackie
Zootopia
Winner?: Zootopia occasionally feels like it might be overrated and Moana might be underrated, but I genuinely loved both-I'm reserving judgment here until we get to the OVP as I haven't seen The Red Turtle or My Life as a Zucchini and I could see either sneaking into the finals.
Cinematography
Jackie
Knight of Cups
La La Land
Moonlight
Silence
Winner?: Moonlight, with its haunting changes in perspective and the subtle uses of color, particularly at night.
Runner-Up: Probably Knight of Cups-Malick movies used to be nominated by Oscar here as a default, and probably still should all things considered-this is still the height of beauty.
Costume
The Dressmaker
Everybody Wants Some!!!
Hail Caesar
Jackie
Silence
Winner?: Jackie, by a longshot-you can feel the stiffness of those pillbox hats and suits.
Runner-Up: The Dressmaker was all gaudy fun, and it's hard to argue that it's consistently gorgeous.
Arrival
Everybody Wants Some!!!
Jackie
Moonlight
The Witch
Winner?: Moonlight makes the most of its three-part plotting.
Runner-Up: Arrival finds fun uses for time and flashbacks in its film that don't feel particularly gimmicky (an accomplishment at this point).
Makeup & Hairstyling
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail Caesar
Jackie
Silence
Sing Street
Winner?: Jackie-the way that they use subtle shifts in Portman's appearance to tell different story lines, but without leaning on it too heavily-subtle makeup and completely accurate hairstyling deserves its reward too.
Runner-Up: Silence finds ways to transform their characters, and the use of dirt and blood rarely feels painted on and more like something that actually happened through the rigors of shooting.
Production Design
Jackie
La La Land
Passengers
Silence
Zootopia
Winner?: Once again I go with Jackie, as the film's devotion to detail, particularly in recreating the White House, is spellbinding and marvelous.
Runner-Up: I adored the ledo-deck aesthetic of Passengers even if the actual movie itself was utter tripe.
Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
A Monster Calls
Passengers
Winner?: Honestly there's not a film here that screams out "WINNER!" to me in big bold letters. Probably Arrival, if we're being honest, even though most of it's been done before-it uses classy CGI, and I loved the lettering effects in particular.
Runner-Up: I liked the animation and the realism of A Monster Calls, even if the effects are less essential to the story than something like Doctor Strange or Passengers.
Original Score
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
A Monster Calls
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Winner?: Moonlight's theme haunts my dreams, and it's the one that is most likely going to be used i the future to recall the picture.
Runner-Up: Jackie-Mica Levi is that rare composer who can put her own personal stamp on the music while also creating something wholly original for the picture.
Original Song
"City of Stars," La La Land
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go," Moana
"Try Everything," Zootopia
"We Know the Way," Moana
Winner?: I'm a sucker for a Disney power ballad (and Lin-Manuel Miranda in general), so "How Far I'll Go."
Runner-Up: Shakira's anthem to believe in yourself shouldn't work so well, but it's aces.
Sound Mixing
Arrival
Jackie
Moonlight
Silence
The Witch
Winner?: Jackie, maybe? Like VFX, I don't feel like anyone is completely knocking it out of the park here, but Jackie finds ways to make the tables have sounds, and I always like that attention to detail and the distinctive aural palette.
Runner-Up: Silence, which considering its title finds an appropriate balance to its sound.
Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Winner?: Arrival, by a long-shot. The aliens alone with that whooshing call are an effect that instantly recalls the film itself.
Runner-Up: I had a lot of problems with the movie itself, but Sound Editing wasn't really one of them, so I think I'd give the nod to Rogue One over Hacksaw Ridge.
Passengers
Silence
Zootopia
Winner?: Once again I go with Jackie, as the film's devotion to detail, particularly in recreating the White House, is spellbinding and marvelous.
Runner-Up: I adored the ledo-deck aesthetic of Passengers even if the actual movie itself was utter tripe.
Visual Effects
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
A Monster Calls
Passengers
Winner?: Honestly there's not a film here that screams out "WINNER!" to me in big bold letters. Probably Arrival, if we're being honest, even though most of it's been done before-it uses classy CGI, and I loved the lettering effects in particular.
Runner-Up: I liked the animation and the realism of A Monster Calls, even if the effects are less essential to the story than something like Doctor Strange or Passengers.
Original Score
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Jackie
A Monster Calls
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Winner?: Moonlight's theme haunts my dreams, and it's the one that is most likely going to be used i the future to recall the picture.
Runner-Up: Jackie-Mica Levi is that rare composer who can put her own personal stamp on the music while also creating something wholly original for the picture.
Original Song
"City of Stars," La La Land
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go," Moana
"Try Everything," Zootopia
"We Know the Way," Moana
Winner?: I'm a sucker for a Disney power ballad (and Lin-Manuel Miranda in general), so "How Far I'll Go."
Runner-Up: Shakira's anthem to believe in yourself shouldn't work so well, but it's aces.
Sound Mixing
Arrival
Jackie
Moonlight
Silence
The Witch
Winner?: Jackie, maybe? Like VFX, I don't feel like anyone is completely knocking it out of the park here, but Jackie finds ways to make the tables have sounds, and I always like that attention to detail and the distinctive aural palette.
Runner-Up: Silence, which considering its title finds an appropriate balance to its sound.
Sound Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Winner?: Arrival, by a long-shot. The aliens alone with that whooshing call are an effect that instantly recalls the film itself.
Runner-Up: I had a lot of problems with the movie itself, but Sound Editing wasn't really one of them, so I think I'd give the nod to Rogue One over Hacksaw Ridge.
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