Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
The Lowdown: I'm a bit torn here, as quite frankly it feels like most of the support has pooled into a few buckets (La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea), so much so that I could see 2016 being that rare year that only gets 5-6 nominations. Unfortunately, I don't know what a year like that looks like yet (it hasn't happened under the rules), so I'm sticking with eight. I had for a while Silence replacing Lion, but the DGA has me rethinking that, and I'd be willing to hear an argument hat Hacksaw should go in favor of Nocturnal Animals, but by-and-large this feels about right.
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival
The Lowdown: Occasionally you have to go against the grain, and this year I am. While Tom Ford, Garth Davis, or Mel Gibson make more sense on paper, I can't shake the idea that Martin Scorsese is a Vera Drake situation here-a deeply beloved figure in the Directors Branch who can defy the odds and manage to get a nomination, particularly against less well-known figures, or ones that might reek of controversy for the more storied branch. If Davis, Ford, or Gibson make it in, you can point out that I was wrong but part of me thinks I won't be; keep in mind the only time that Scorsese scored with Oscar but not the DGA was over another controversial religious epic (The Last Temptation of Christ).
Dennis Villeneuve, Arrival
The Lowdown: Occasionally you have to go against the grain, and this year I am. While Tom Ford, Garth Davis, or Mel Gibson make more sense on paper, I can't shake the idea that Martin Scorsese is a Vera Drake situation here-a deeply beloved figure in the Directors Branch who can defy the odds and manage to get a nomination, particularly against less well-known figures, or ones that might reek of controversy for the more storied branch. If Davis, Ford, or Gibson make it in, you can point out that I was wrong but part of me thinks I won't be; keep in mind the only time that Scorsese scored with Oscar but not the DGA was over another controversial religious epic (The Last Temptation of Christ).
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
The Lowdown: Weird things sometimes happen in years where the lineup is decidedly weak (which it is-this is the worst Best Actor field in a decade if you look at the overall contenders list). The obvious money here is on Affleck, Gosling, Garfield, Washington, and Viggo Mortensen, but there's a problem there as (with the exception of Denzel and Affleck, who are set)-these aren't traditional nominees. Garfield is a pretty boy in a war film playing a pacifist (not your average nomination), Gosling is the romantic lead in a musical (not your average nomination for a man), and Mortensen has a subtle role in a very small film that isn't getting play in Best Picture. That leaves some room for another contender, but who? Joel Edgerton has the same issues as Gosling (romantic lead), but without the Best Picture buzz. Michael Keaton has the right role, but has anyone even seen The Founder yet? Warren Beatty's film bombed, Chris Pine is still in the "pretty boy" phase of his career, and while I have a sneaking suspicion he's on more ballots than you'd guess, Ryan Reynolds is playing the profane lead in a comic book movie-that seems a stretch for Best Actor. The only person who makes sense (by AMPAS math) is Tom Hanks, but he hasn't gained traction anywhere else. I'm betting, though, that like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, this could be the acting nomination that goes off-the-beaten-track on Oscar morning and lands without a precursor, if only because right now everyone might need Tom Hanks in their lives.
The Lowdown: Weird things sometimes happen in years where the lineup is decidedly weak (which it is-this is the worst Best Actor field in a decade if you look at the overall contenders list). The obvious money here is on Affleck, Gosling, Garfield, Washington, and Viggo Mortensen, but there's a problem there as (with the exception of Denzel and Affleck, who are set)-these aren't traditional nominees. Garfield is a pretty boy in a war film playing a pacifist (not your average nomination), Gosling is the romantic lead in a musical (not your average nomination for a man), and Mortensen has a subtle role in a very small film that isn't getting play in Best Picture. That leaves some room for another contender, but who? Joel Edgerton has the same issues as Gosling (romantic lead), but without the Best Picture buzz. Michael Keaton has the right role, but has anyone even seen The Founder yet? Warren Beatty's film bombed, Chris Pine is still in the "pretty boy" phase of his career, and while I have a sneaking suspicion he's on more ballots than you'd guess, Ryan Reynolds is playing the profane lead in a comic book movie-that seems a stretch for Best Actor. The only person who makes sense (by AMPAS math) is Tom Hanks, but he hasn't gained traction anywhere else. I'm betting, though, that like Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, this could be the acting nomination that goes off-the-beaten-track on Oscar morning and lands without a precursor, if only because right now everyone might need Tom Hanks in their lives.
Amy Adams, Arrival
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
The Lowdown: Unlike Best Actor, this is a strong year for this category. In addition to the five listed women, you have other performances like Emily Blunt, Ruth Negga, Annette Bening, and Taraji P. Henson that in a lesser year would have made this list (2014, for example). I could be convinced that something crazy could happen here as well (it's a weird year for Oscar, particularly with such a late onslaught of contenders and so few films with general public buzz, so we might not be able to tell quite yet who is truly on-top of the list), but I think the frontrunners stay. Streep was the weakest but locked this up with her Globes speech, and Huppert's win there shows a surprising strength. The biggest question mark for me is Blunt, who has gotten way more love than I expected at precursors, and some in the Academy might just be saying "it's time" for an actress who's flirted with an Oscar nod for a decade. If one of the above miss, I think she takes it.
The Lowdown: Unlike Best Actor, this is a strong year for this category. In addition to the five listed women, you have other performances like Emily Blunt, Ruth Negga, Annette Bening, and Taraji P. Henson that in a lesser year would have made this list (2014, for example). I could be convinced that something crazy could happen here as well (it's a weird year for Oscar, particularly with such a late onslaught of contenders and so few films with general public buzz, so we might not be able to tell quite yet who is truly on-top of the list), but I think the frontrunners stay. Streep was the weakest but locked this up with her Globes speech, and Huppert's win there shows a surprising strength. The biggest question mark for me is Blunt, who has gotten way more love than I expected at precursors, and some in the Academy might just be saying "it's time" for an actress who's flirted with an Oscar nod for a decade. If one of the above miss, I think she takes it.
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Brdiges, Hell or High Water
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals
The Lowdown: Like Emily Blunt, Aaron Taylor-Johnson is a candidate who makes sense due to precursors but doesn't in the sense that it's not really the kind of performance I'd expect Oscar to go toward: a nasty, sexually-charged sociopath who literally sits naked on a toilet in one scene. Plus, it's not like Taylor-Johnson is particularly charming in speeches. Still, the win at the Globes makes it hard for me to go with one of the other actors on the outer edges like Michael Shannon, Liam Neeson, Stephen Henderson, or (in particular) Lucas Hedges, so I'm giving it the nomination even if I don't quite get where the love is coming from.
The Lowdown: Like Emily Blunt, Aaron Taylor-Johnson is a candidate who makes sense due to precursors but doesn't in the sense that it's not really the kind of performance I'd expect Oscar to go toward: a nasty, sexually-charged sociopath who literally sits naked on a toilet in one scene. Plus, it's not like Taylor-Johnson is particularly charming in speeches. Still, the win at the Globes makes it hard for me to go with one of the other actors on the outer edges like Michael Shannon, Liam Neeson, Stephen Henderson, or (in particular) Lucas Hedges, so I'm giving it the nomination even if I don't quite get where the love is coming from.
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
The Lowdown: Unlike the other acting races, I'm feeling very strongly we're not seeing a surprise here. If Janelle Monae or Greta Gerwig or Lily Gladstone were going to stand out by now, they would have done so somewhere, and yet they haven't. Spencer is theoretically weak (internal competition), as is Kidman (that Trump comment did her no favors), but they're Oscar-winners who are in likely Best Picture nominees-it's hard to think AMPAS will skip such work, particularly in a year that wasn't as strong as years past for this category. And though there's some precedence (Keisha Castle-Hughes, Kate Winslet), I just can't see Viola Davis randomly getting promoted, even though I do think she'd win Best Actress this year if she were in that category (feel free to speculate who wins here in that case, but Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams are probably mumbling the most). So this is the five.
The Lowdown: Unlike the other acting races, I'm feeling very strongly we're not seeing a surprise here. If Janelle Monae or Greta Gerwig or Lily Gladstone were going to stand out by now, they would have done so somewhere, and yet they haven't. Spencer is theoretically weak (internal competition), as is Kidman (that Trump comment did her no favors), but they're Oscar-winners who are in likely Best Picture nominees-it's hard to think AMPAS will skip such work, particularly in a year that wasn't as strong as years past for this category. And though there's some precedence (Keisha Castle-Hughes, Kate Winslet), I just can't see Viola Davis randomly getting promoted, even though I do think she'd win Best Actress this year if she were in that category (feel free to speculate who wins here in that case, but Naomie Harris and Michelle Williams are probably mumbling the most). So this is the five.
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
The Lowdown: The big question here is whether or not Fences will lose out on this seemingly slam-dunk posthumous nomination with the film looking to just be the Denzel-and-Viola show in terms of nominations, in which case Lion or perhaps even Deadpool (don't laugh-Shrek made it into the screenplay category in 2001) could find their way into the conversation. However, I'm sticking with Fences over Lion as it feels like a lot of people in the writer's branch would have worshiped August Wilson and may want to mark him for finally getting a movie onto the big screen. The rest of the nominees seem pretty much set to me.
The Lowdown: The big question here is whether or not Fences will lose out on this seemingly slam-dunk posthumous nomination with the film looking to just be the Denzel-and-Viola show in terms of nominations, in which case Lion or perhaps even Deadpool (don't laugh-Shrek made it into the screenplay category in 2001) could find their way into the conversation. However, I'm sticking with Fences over Lion as it feels like a lot of people in the writer's branch would have worshiped August Wilson and may want to mark him for finally getting a movie onto the big screen. The rest of the nominees seem pretty much set to me.
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
The Lowdown: Oh, this category. There are in my opinion four films locked into place here. You have the three Best Picture nominees (Hell, La La, Manchester), and then The Lobster, which is the sort of film that gets nominated here based on it being quirky, well-done, and a way for Oscar to claim "they discovered you" when in reality they aren't at the point where they actually want you in the big categories yet. The final nomination, however, could go to pretty much any direction. I honestly wouldn't doubt seeing Zootopia, Jackie, 20th Century Women, or even Hail Caesar (it's the Coen Brothers, after all, never far from the writing branch's heart), but I suspect that one man's struggle to come of age with his family is the sort of thing they gravitate toward here, so I'm randomly predicting Captain Fantastic in a category it's less likely to win a nod in instead of the one where it's expected to succeed.
The King's Choice (Norway)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Toni Erdmann (Norway)
The Lowdown: Apparently I'm feeling Scandinavian this year with a trio of choices from the region, as Oscar skipped three of the biggest titles on the map (Neruda, Elle, and Julieta) to basically make it impossible for Germany's Toni Erdmann to lose. The rest of the list I'm filling with traditional Academy fare (who doesn't love a comecdic story about an old man...at least in this branch?) and a recent hit for the category in The Salesman, as A Separation showed that Asghar Farhadi is a force to be reckoned with on a global scale. Still, though, this is the Toni Erdmann show provided Germany lands the nomination.
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
The Lowdown: A wonderful year for animation, there's going to be some big names left off of this list, as well as some critical darlings. I wouldn't totally discount The Little Prince and Your Name, as they are the small/foreign films that this category seems to celebrate (this branch is weirdly good about including names outside of the norm), but The Red Turtle and My Life as a Zucchini have taken up so much of the early buzz and I think they'll land it, alongside of Laika (which has never missed so far) and the Disney double feature. That leaves Finding Dory as yet another Pixar casualty here, though as I stated yesterday, I'm hardly sad about this turn-of-events.
The BFG
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Lion
The Lowdown: Here's the deal-it is never, ever a good bet in this category to assume that we won't have mostly former nominees, particularly John Williams. At most, you might get 1-2 first-time nominees to go alongside names you know by heart. This year is testing that theory as most of the major score work, including in the Best Picture contenders, was done by composers who have never been invited to the club. As a result I could be dead wrong here, but I'm sticking to the "Academy favorites" with James Newton Howard, John Williams, and Alexandre Desplat adding to their sizable nominations count alongside newcomers for La La Land and Lion, but I'm truly prepared for anything when it comes to this category. Definitely the below-the-line race I'm most intrigued to see the results.
"Audition," La La Land
"City of Stars," La La Land
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street
"How Far I'll Go," Moana
"Runnin," Hidden Figures
The Lowdown: Last year I had to deal with Lady Gaga, one of a quartet of pop stars I admittedly like on the radio but don't want to have Oscars because they keep insisting they can "act" getting a nomination. Will I have to do it again this year with another leg of that quartet landing a citation with Justin Timberlake getting in for his massive hit "Can't Stop the Feeling" from Trolls? I think it's probably more likely than not, but I couldn't bring myself to predict it, going instead for Sing Street. Still, it's likely between those two and The Eagle Huntress for this category, unless the music branch decides to go kooky with another "Alone Yet Not Alone."
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
The Lowdown: Lord help you all when I get to writing about this for the OVP write-ups, as La La Land's worst element in my opinion is its egregiously bad sound mixing, but it's a Best Picture-winning musical (or it will be)-no way it misses in this category. For the remainder, it's never wise to bet against an action-inspired Best Picture contender here, so expect to see Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge, and Doctor Strange seems to be defying most conventions in terms of Marvel & Oscar, so I think this will be the franchise's biggest hit with AMPAS thanks to some more favorable elements (foreign locales and unusual color effects), so keep it in here. Finally, I can't shake the idea that Deepwater Horizon is this year's Lone Survivor-a film that randomly lands in the sound categories even without much buzz around it (though both star Mark Wahlberg).
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Lowdown: I'm going with, like I always do, four nominees from Sound Mixing being holdovers, while taking out the musical and substituting in an action adventure. That's the recipe here, and while I'm not entirely sure about what Rogue One's status will be with Oscar, it's hard to imagine it getting more nominations than The Force Awakens did last year, so I'm guessing this and VFX are its only selections, though I could be wrong and it's Deepwater Horizon or Doctor Strange that's the film that goes for 1/2 in the sound categories. This also feels like the place they'll give Hacksaw Ridge a trophy if they feel inclined to make it Oscar-winning (see also Zero Dark Thirty and American Sniper).
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
The Lowdown: This is the ASC list verbatim, which carries some risks even if they all feel like they're way out in front right now, as it's rare the ASC copies over completely, and it's even rarer that we have four first-time nominees in another branch that's quite clique-y. On Oscar nomination morning, I wouldn't be stunned if one of the Oscar stand-bys like Seamus McGarvey (Nocturnal Animals), Robert Richardson (Live by Night), or Roger Deakins (Hail, Caesar!) made it in, but right now this feels about right, and a list that Oscar can by-and-large be proud of copying. It's strange, but in a year with relatively low-level Best Picture nominees, it seems like most of Oscar's favorites took the year off as most tech categories feature a host of potential first-timers, more than is typical.
The Dressmaker
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
The Lowdown: Here's where you'll be able to tell whether or not La La Land is unstoppable or if Moonlight could perhaps pull the top prize out at the last minute. Contemporary films almost never are nominated for an Oscar, but Mary Zophres designs here are sharp, arguably the film's best element give or take the cinematography, and such a bold, distinctive use of color that I think they could just do the trick. There's a heap of competition this year (Allied, Silence, Hidden Figures, and Live by Night all look like nominees as well), so this isn't a slam dunk but could show that La La Land might be unstoppable.
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
The Lowdown: Generally you just pick the four biggest Best Picture frontrunners, add in a prestigious action film, and then call it a day for Film Editing. Considering the most prestigious action films of the year (in terms of Oscar buzz) are Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival, two movies that seem probable for the Best Picture field in their own right, this category may be even less creative than it usually is. If there's a movie that stuns, it could well be OJ: Made in America, a movie that has no business being at the Oscars but cheated its way into eligibility, so I'm hoping for boring at this point regardless of the quality of the documentary.
Deadpool
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
The Lowdown: I know the smart money is on Florence Foster Jenkins, and J. Roy Helland getting his second Oscar for doing Meryl's hair, but this branch is cray and they've shown a penchant for Star Trek and foreign language films in old-age makeup in the recent past so I'm going to stick to those nominations along with Deadpool, which is too much of a pop culture moment not to get in somewhere.
I also want to put in an annual caveat that we should have five nominees here-there's no reason that an element that's in every single movie like makeup (unlike, say, original songs or visual effects), shouldn't get a full list of nominees-it's not like it'd be hard to find here.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
The Handmaiden
Jackie
La La Land
Silence
The Lowdown: The big thing I'm wondering about here is whether or not I'm underestimating the space age for Arrival (Gravity, Interstellar, and The Martian all factored into this race-it could be a thing) and whether Dante Ferreti is beloved enough to make it for a film that people don't seem to be responding to (save me). Otherwise this feels right, with The Handmaiden being showy work, though my allergy to Park Chan-Wook is making me hope that AMPAS ignores it, otherwise I'm going to have to OVP that thing, and Jackie being exceptional and intrinsic (who doesn't love the peaks into the White House) even if the general attitude toward the film hasn't been as rosy as I'd hoped from AMPAS.
Arrival
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Lowdown: Oh how I want to predict Deepwater Horizon, as apparently the film went over well in screenings for this branch, but I only have room for one surprise, and I'm going with Kubo to become the second animated feature to make this list. I'm not 100% sold that the branch won't be against Rogue One due to the controversies about recreating human beings, but if anyone's going to be progressive in that regard, it'll probably be the branch who is responsible for that technology, so it stays. Prepare yourself for me mumbling a lot about The Jungle Book being the frontrunner here when I found the VFX there underwhelming, as it's going to happen.
And that's it-share your predictions today and then tomorrow, we all get our new nominees!
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