Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
The Lowdown: Obviously this is one of the most open-ended Oscar races we've seen in a long time here, with Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant all battling it out for the top trophy. Pragmatically it seems like Spotlight, the most "social justice-y" of the films, is the one that should make it and admittedly The Big Short is a huge crowd-pleaser, but it feels like The Revenant, which is a mammoth hit and an historical epic in a category where Oscars loves to go there, is the film that I think ultimately takes the prize.
Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
The Lowdown: I keep waking up in a cold sweat thinking that the man behind Anchorman and Talladega Nights has a directing Oscar in his hand, but I think we should avoid that situation. While I could see the Academy rewarding George Miller for a true triumph (even though he technically already has an Oscar so it's hardly a make-up situation) or Tom McCarthy's classy hand in Spotlight taking the reigns, it seems more likely that AGI follows in the hallowed steps of John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz and wins back-to-back Best Director trophies.
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
The Lowdown: Every person who has talked to me about the Oscars in the last week (it's a lot of people, and I do mean every single one) has asked me if this is Leo's year. And yes, yes it is. I've never predicted him before, he doesn't deserve it for this role, but there's no way he's being stopped this year-DiCaprio is taking that trophy. And Twitter rejoiced.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
The Lowdown: History is not always kind to actresses who win on their first nominations (just ask Marlee Matlin and Louise Fletcher), but hopefully that's not the case for the uber-talented Brie Larson, who feels like as big of a lock as Leo for this victory.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
The Lowdown: I anticipate my favorite win of the night will be Sly, forty years after first entering the ring, taking his golden boy home.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
The Lowdown: I can't shake the idea that Kate Winslet is going to take this trophy, even if common sense dictates that it is Alicia Vikander, who has the SAG Award and has never won before and had an incredible year (this is her third best performance). Winslet's got the Globe, the BAFTA, and the Leo nostalgia and I wouldn't be shocked if she randomly picked up a second Oscar for this movie, but I'm sticking with Vikander who has the showier role and the newness going for her.
Best Animated Feature Film
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
The Lowdown: I honestly think, at some point, we need to take a critical eye to the amount of trophies that Pixar has won in this category, which at this point is starting to approach 'The Amazing Race at the Emmys' territory, but it won't be this year. Inside Out takes this in a cakewalk.
Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
The Lowdown: John Seale's nomination is such a worthy investment in Mad Max and Roger Deakins wandering through the wilderness is just cruel at this point, but Emmanuel Lubezki's The Revenant will net him a third consecutive trophy, a first for this category (remember just a few years ago when we were complaining about him not having any Oscars?).
Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Lowdown: Jacqueline West might win this award for The Revenant simply for having what sounds like a truly disgusting job on that film, but I suspect this is between two Academy legends: Jenny Beavan (Mad Max) and Sandy Powell, doubly-nominated for Carol or Cinderella. I know that this doesn't normally happen in a tech category, but Powell feels like she's going to split votes between her supporters, giving Beavan a second trophy after nine nominations. I could be wrong, but I can't decide which Powell creation would actually get more votes (Cinderella on paper, but Carol got more nods). As a result, Beavan's recent BAFTA seals the deal for her.
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
The Lowdown: You have to feel for Joshua Oppenheimer. A few years ago he lost for his groundbreaking The Act of Killing to a doc about musicians, and a few years later he makes an equally-lauded companion piece, and will likely lose to another documentary about a musician. Amy will join March of the Penguins as one of those rare non-activist documentaries to actually score a trophy, but it seems like it will happen. At least it's a good movie.
Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann, Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
The Lowdown: Like Amy's dominance in feature, I'm still staggered by Body Team 12's ability to win over pretty much every pundit here. Claude Lanzmann is the best of the bunch, and A Girl in the River the one where you most want to make a stand, so I could picture either of those two sneaking in, but Body Team 12 does recount the most recent history of the bunch and shows a truly heroic act, so let's assume that's the winner.
Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Lowdown: Here is where the canary-in-the-coal-mine will be residing. If the Academy is truly leaning toward a particular Best Picture nominee, this could be where we are able to tell as The Big Short's cutaways and The Revenant's grandeur both could be easy sells if their fanbase is large enough in the Film Editing category. However, my gut says that it's an even split, which should allow Mad Max, this year's Grand Budapest Hotel, to score another tech trophy.
Best Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpant, Colombia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark
The Lowdown: A closer-than-expected battle between Son of Saul, which is exactly in the Academy's wheelhouse (war drama, very serious and depressing) and Mustang, completely outside what we think of as an Oscar-winning film in this category (fresh, modern, detailed). While I'm cheering for Mustang, it's hard to imagine Son of Saul not ending up on top here, particularly considering France seems to always have other chances (even though they're on a bit of a losing streak at the moment).
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
The Lowdown: Can't wait to see who has to read the full year 100-year-old-man title on Oscar night, but the winner's envelope should say Mad Max, which has the showiest makeup and feels like a pretty easy place for fans of the movie to give it another statue.
Best Music (Original Score)
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Lowdown: I personally don't think we're ever going to see that sixth Oscar for John Williams, who scored an astounding fiftieth nomination this year for The Force Awakens. That being said, I think a different kind of losing streak will end this year (no, not you Thomas Newman), in that Ennio Morricone, a composer of legend, is finally going to win a trophy and I, one of his most ardent fans, will surely start to cry.
Best Music (Original Song)
"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Simple Song #3," Youth
"Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
"Writing's on the Wall," Spectre
The Lowdown: Part of me is rooting for Racing Extinction and Youth just because the Academy idiotically decided not to include them as performers during the ceremony. However, this is going to be an easy win for Lady Gaga, who will do what her idol/nemesis Madonna never could and win an Oscar for herself.
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
The Lowdown: Jack Fisk is likely going to win an honorary Oscar at some point, but The Revenant's outdoor nature is going to be trumped by the outdoors creations in Mad Max, which should outlast the drawing room appeal of The Danish Girl.
Best Short Film (Animated)
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
The Lowdown: I can't help but think that I'm going to get this one wrong, as Bear Story and World of Tomorrow are both coming in very strong after a season where Sanjay's Super Team dominated. However, as last year's dual animated victories proved, Disney dominates here and so I'm going to go with Pixar's entry, stubborn to the end.
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Sturrerer
The Lowdown: For the first time in years I haven't been able to catch this lineup (my life always turns into a mess in February, but there's really no excuses here), so I'm back to the days where I'm going by plot summaries and buzz. That seems to indicate a three-way race between Ave Maria, Sturrerer, and Shok, and I'm going with Shok because, why not?
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Lowdown: The next three categories are a horse-race between Mad Max, Star Wars, and The Revenant. It's hard to imagine Star Wars not taking something here, but I can't shake the idea that The Revenant won't end up with more Oscars than Mad Max (the Best Picture usually does), and so I'm giving it the edge in the sound categories. This is the one it probably will have the tougher time in, though, if there's a split.
Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Lowdown: I already said I'm picking The Revenant. Let's keep up here, shall we? :)
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Lowdown: Easily the most competitive this race has been since 2007. Star Wars won the Box Office crown (nothing to sneeze at), but it's the seventh in a series and there's nothing groundbreaking in this movie that would indicate it should win. Judy the Bear was arguably the year's most lauded effect, and it's worth noting that only one other film has won Best Picture and lost Best Visual Effects (it was Patton, for the curious). However, Mad Max with its array of impressive practical effects feels like the sort of throwback winner that this category probably has been aching for after a decade of constant CGI.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
The Lowdown: I truly wish that one of the female writers, who did such marvelous work here, could take the trophy, but we're going to have to live with Adam McKay having an Oscar, even if it's thankfully not for directing.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
The Lowdown: I've seen some people argue that the Academy's answer to #OscarsSoWhite will be to throw a bone to Compton, but I doubt that the four white authors of the film will make the impact that they were hoping to see. As a result, this trophy, which has had Tom McCarthy's name on it for months, will be Spotlight's sole victory.
There you have it! I'm most nervous about Picture, Supporting Actress, Animated Short, Costume, and VFX. How about you? Share your Oscar predictions in the comments below!
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