Wednesday, September 02, 2015

2015 Emmy Predictions: The Comedies

The fun thing about the Emmys is that there are no precursors (at least none that have remotely shown their ability to predict the winners yet, so a lot of it is based on gut and history, and since the Emmy Awards will be later this month on September 20th, I figured it was time for to get my predictions out into the world.  Without further adieu, here are my predictions for the 2015 Emmy Awards in Comedy (we'll do Drama and Miniseries later this week):

(As a reminder I don't do Runners-Up or Second Place for predictions as I think that's kind of copping out)

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

The Lowdown: One of the last strongholds of the broadcast networks disappeared this year, as ABC and NBC now find themselves in the minority compared with FX, Netflix, Amazon, and of course HBO.  Does that mean that the winner, who has been Modern Family for years, may falter?  If it manages to win it will officially break its tie with Frasier and become the most-honored show in the history of the category, but I feel like enough people don't want that to happen that it won't make it (though, like last year, it could well benefit from vote-splitting).  My money is on either Transparent or Veep-Transparent has the advantage of having never lost before (this category likes to honor from the beginning), but Veep has been overdue for a while and has the advantage of coming off what many consider its finest season.  I wouldn't be surprised by either, but I'm going with...
My Prediction: Veep

Best Actor in a Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis CK, Louie
Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

The Lowdown: Without perennial winner Jim Parsons included (easily the biggest surprise of Emmy nomination morning), it's looking more-and-more likely that Jeffrey Tambor will walk away with the trophy.  Honestly I can't imagine any of the other men making it, as only CK is in a Best Series nominee and it's hardly what one would consider the best season of Louie.  Tambor on the other hand is in the zeitgeist hit, is a TV veteran, and has actually been nominated seven times at the Emmy Awards without picking up the trophy.
My Prediction: Jeffrey Tambor

Best Actress in a Comedy

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

The Lowdown: Julianne Moore has an Oscar.  Kelli O'Hara has a Tony.  Will Emmy follow through and finally end Amy Poehler's losing streak?  The thirteen-time nominee would be a slam dunk, in my opinion, were she not already certain to get an award at the Creative Arts Emmys for hosting the Golden Globes.  As a result, I think the raves for Veep and the fact that no one else other than perhaps Schumer (who could pull something similar to Melissa McCarthy a few years ago considering they were both newfound movie stars in the wake of a first-time Emmy acting nomination) has a shot means that JLD may well nab her sixth Emmy Award.
My Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Adam Driver, Girls
Tony Hale, Veep
Keegan Michael Key, Key and Peele

The Lowdown: With only one Modern Family guy in contention, it's not out of the question that Ty Burrell takes a third trophy here, despite how many people have written off MF and its awards chances.  The reality is that the Emmys like to repeat, and he's clearly quite popular with the Academy (the same can be said for Tony Hale, also a contender).  That being said, I suspect they'll go for new blood and while Unbreakable ended up underwhelming a little bit (by not nabbing Ellie Kemper a citation for her starring role), there's a good chance that its major haul will result in at least one trophy, so I imagine Burgess takes home his first award.
My Prediction: Tituss Burgess

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Allison Janney, Mom
Jane Krawkoski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Niecy Nash, Getting On

The Lowdown: I still can't get past Niecy Nash's nomination here-absolutely out of nowhere for a series very few people have heard of, though she's been a TV trouper for so many years I'm guessing (and hoping) she's enjoying this moment.  The rest of the contenders all probably have their eyes a bit more focused on a win, though the eight-wide field makes vote-splitting likely, which surely will help perennial Emmy champ (she has six) Allison Janney in her quest for a seventh.  If Unbreakable is stronger than I suspect Jane Krakowski could get in (she's a 4-time loser and it could be "time") or if Veep is stronger consistent nominee Anna Chlumsky could also make it, but I think Janney has to be considered the favorite at this point.
My Prediction: Allison Janney

Those are my predictions-what are yours?  Who are you rooting for on Emmy night?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

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