The one thing we can all agree on is that this doesn't look great for the Democrats right now. The Democrats haven't held this few governor's mansions in decades, and yet most of the states over the next two years either are Democratic territory or are in states that are so conservative it's difficult to see a Democrat emerging there short of a scandal (and so far none of those have popped up). As a result, only one of the below is a shot for the Democrats to get a pickup (I'm removing Indiana from the list as it's seeming less and less competitive, though it is in sixth place at the moment in mind), and it's more than likely they haven't hit their nadir quite yet. Without further adieu, here is the list!
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| Gov. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) |
The big question here is surrounding Gov. Maggie Hassan and the will-she-or-won't-she of her run for governor vs. the Senate. While initially a number of Democrats thought she'd make the plunge and run for the Senate, rumors out of Concord have been growing that she'll instead stand for reelection. It's an interesting conundrum for Hassan, who seems very ambitious but also is aware that it's harder to be elected nationally as a sitting senator than as a governor (I am personally convinced she has her eyes on the executive branch as possibly a national candidate or a future major cabinet secretary). New Hampshire doesn't have term limits, though most governors generally serve no more than 8-10 years, so Hassan would be breaking with tradition if she stuck around longer than six years. Therefore, I think the smarter thing for her to do would be a Senate race (where term limits no longer are an issue and she'd have a national platform), but if she does this becomes a tougher go for the Democrats, who will likely rely upon Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (a rising star in the state), while Republicans may run Chris Sununu, son of a former governor and brother of a former senator. If Hassan skips the Senate race though, it seems very likely the Democrats will lose the Senate majority, so expect much pressure from Chuck Schumer and the DSCC on what is arguably the biggest decision for a single candidate this election cycle. (Previous Ranking: N/A)
4. North Carolina
The major question here is the strength of the race for the White House. The battle between Gov. Pat McCrory (R) and Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is gearing up to be one of the most epic of the cycle, but it will rely largely on the White House election. McCrory, both as the governor and as a Republican, starts the election with a slight edge, but his popularity has never been robust, and as was proven in 2008, if the Democrats are winning the state for the White House, that's enough to upset the status quo (Bev Perdue was able to ride President Obama's coattails to a surprise victory over McCrory that year). If Hillary Clinton or the Democratic nominee is able to win the state, it's possible that Cooper would be able to coast to victory. If not, it seems unlikely McCrory falters if the Republicans are victorious statewide or running essentially a tie-game. Still, there aren't a lot of competitive races and with an increasing stress on winning statehouses again, expect the DNC to put some time in here (Previous Ranking: 3)
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| Attorney General Jack Conway (D-KY) |
The latest PPP poll in Kentucky shows Republican Matt Bevin on the rise, though considering the margins Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway was pulling, this hardly seems like a surprise. Still, it's worth noting that Bevin has parlayed a quixotic and toxic run against Mitch McConnell in last year's Senate primaries (where he was resoundly defeated) into a potential shot at the governor's mansion. While the poll averages still favor Conway, and it's worth noting that Conway does still have a popular sitting governor to help him out (Steve Beshear, a Democrat, is term-limited and surely working behind the scenes to keep the seat in Democratic hands), Bevin's rise does make this a top pickup priority. It's definitely the most interesting race of 2015. (Previous Ranking: 5)
2. Missouri
While many jokes have been made about the number of Republicans running for the White House in 2014, it should be noted that nearly as many seem to be lining up to be the next Governor of Missouri. State legislators Bob Dixon, Randy Asbury, Catherine Hanaway, and Bart Korman, along with Lt. Govenor Peter Kinder have all made the jump into the gubernatorial election, which could either end up with a battle-tested nominee or a Republican who is badly wounded headed into the general, depending on the level of discourse. The Democrats have avoided any sort of competition, going with Attorney General Chris Koster, though it's worth noting that he'll have to wear the badge of unpopular Gov. Jay Nixon, whose handling of the Ferguson crisis was widely panned within the state. My guess is that this election, barring a tough primary, goes to the Republicans for a pickup, but it's not open-and-shut. It's worth noting that three major constitutional offices are open in 2016, so both parties (but particularly the Democrats) will be trying profusely to win some in order to maintain a bench in the Show-Me State. (Previous Ranking: 2)
1. West Virginia
Honestly, with Sen. Joe Manchin out of this race and Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin retiring, this is an almost impossible hold for the Democrats. Republicans largely avoided a primary, with State Senate President Bill Cole seeming assured a victory in the primary while the Democrats have multimillionaire Jim Justice taking on State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler. Democrats in 2014 found this state toxic, with longtime Rep. Nick Rahall and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant both faltering, and it's hard to see them rebounding while President Obama still is in office. My hunch is that the Democrats largely ignore this race, putting most of their eggs in the basket of Joe Manchin, whom they'll need to have a major turnout operation for if they hope to hold his seat. (Previous Ranking: 1)
And there you have it-the top governor's races over the next two years-share your thoughts on these and any other elections in 2016 in the comments below!
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