Why Chris Christie is Not John McCain

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ)

Frequently in politics, but particularly when the going gets rough, campaigns start to cling to the longshots.  You will hear for example in Colorado these days that at this time in the last cycle now-Sen. Cory Gardner wasn't even in the race.  Or from Democrats that now-Sen. Heidi Heitkamp hadn't even begun her campaign.  Campaigns every year try to cling to the fact that "they" are going to be the surprise when they are down, and it's admittedly always possible.  The reality is that every cycle there is a situation like Gardner or Heitkamp, where someone randomly goes from being largely non-viable to a serious candidate to a high-elected official.  It will happen again in 2016, though of course it's hard to tell where, principally because the campaign (like Heitkamp's or Gardner's), will not be evident from the get-go.  It could be Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona, whose retail skills in a sprawling district should come in handy in Arizona.  It could be Glenda Ritz in Indiana, who has developed a major rivalry with Indiana Republican titan Gov. Mike Pence.  It could even be someone like Gov. John Kasich, whose incredible support in the ultimate swing state could launch him onto a national ticket despite anemic current support in the polls.  But I will tell you what is not going to happen-Gov. Chris Christie is not going to turn into the John McCain of 2008.

For those who don't recall the 2008 primary, Sen. John McCain, the eventual winner of the nomination, was at death's door in the summer of 2007.  At the time McCain was broke, and clearly underwhelming in expectations.  New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was leading in almost all national polls and seemed likely to be setting up a subway election with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.  The reality of this situation changed pretty rapidly, with Clinton falling to an upstart senator from Illinois, but also more impressively was Giuliani's epic drop (a precipitator of the Tea Party movement), with Mike Huckabee taking Iowa and John McCain (whom many were calling on to drop-out the previous summer) winning New Hampshire and eventually parlaying that victory into a national one, taking the Republican nomination. This has given lore since then that, like Heitkamp and Gardner, any campaign could be the "John McCain" of this current primary-a nomination that is just a few month's away from being a reality.

Presidential primaries more than most are pretty susceptible to changes in the wind.  At one point as a nation Herman Cain was leading in polls (and currently Donald Trump is)-neither of these men will ever make it remotely close to the Oval Office.  But it does show that someone like Gov. Chris Christie could theoretically regain the lead.  However, we need to rest this chestnut a bit, as Christie is too much damaged goods to make up this sort of a deficit.

The reality is that in a presidential primary, two types of candidates can emerge-the fresh upstart or the old warhorse, with the latter being the far more likely candidate to regain strength.  2008's Democratic race, in fact, is the only case in recent memory where a fresh upstart actually ended up winning the nomination in a close race against a storied candidate (before that you have to go back to Jimmy Carter in 1976).  In most cases the party elite rally behind a familiar face, someone who might not be that exciting but will keep the party dignity and law-and-order inline.  People like John Kerry, George H.W. Bush, and Walter Mondale all were a few weeks before the primaries or even during the primaries at one point underdogs, but they were also more acceptable in the eyes of the party than someone like Howard Dean, Pat Robertson, and Gary Hart, so they ended up winning when the field expanded nationally and name recognition and party connections were more important (since you can't campaign everywhere).  As a result, the war horses and the upstarts do have a precedent to being president, but particularly the old-timers.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)

Which brings us to the 2016 presidential race.  There is clearly an establishment favorite in Gov. Jeb Bush, and two obvious upstarts have started to emerge from the pack (Marco Rubio and Scott Walker). There is still time for one of these contingencies to falter.  Bush could prove underwhelming, and the establishment could either embrace an upstart (as they did with Barack Obama in 2008) or go with a longtime political powerbroker like John Kasich or Lindsey Graham.  The upstarts, those who want a fresh face, get easily distracted and anyone ranging from Ben Carson to Donald Trump could become a factor.  But the reality is that Chris Christie doesn't have a precedent.  He can't be John McCain in this race because he's too much damaged goods.  McCain in 2008 was a man the GOP had basically guaranteed for several decades that he would be a nominee at some point.  He was a longtime member of Congress and the Senate from Arizona, a decorated war hero who had been on several VP shortlists (both in 1988 and 1996), and was coming off a second place finish for the presidency in 2000, which had been a harbinger for Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, and Bob Dole in previous campaigns.  He was also a strong antithesis to George W. Bush, since he had vehemently opposed him seven years earlier in the primary and the Commander-in-Chief was wildly unpopular at the time.  Chris Christie can't remotely compare to this.  He's a two-term governor of a state that hates him, has been embroiled in scandal, and unlike McCain (who started his grumpy old man routine after he lost in 2008), he doesn't have McCain's sensibility and instant credibility.  McCain in 2008 was a way to save face, but Christie in 2016 offers little reward.  Those hungering for a new face in the party have moved on-he's too liberal and too yesterday-and those in the party wanting an establishment pick can't be bothered when they have successful and popular governors like Bush and Kasich who don't come with a bunch of skeletons in their closet.  The case for Christie closed months ago-his entry into the presidential race therefore seems to simply be him doing what he's wanted to do for six years, but his hopes of being a presidential nominee ended when his team closed that bridge.