The Hunt for a Visual Effects Oscar

Can Jurassic World get an Oscar nod?

Most of the time when you see articles about the Oscars at this point in the year, it's all ridiculous speculating.  Every single year surprises emerge (no one expected Birdman to be a Best Picture winner this time last year-no one), and every year a film that seems to have it all on paper falters (everyone expected Unbroken to be a nominee this time last year-everyone).  For these reasons most of the headliner categories are a fool's errand.

However, there are categories that I will admit are worth discussing at this time of year because of the limited number of competitors and the historical number of nominees that come out of the Summer and chief amongst them is Visual Effects (for the record, the only other ones that make sense are Animated Feature, and based on the insularity of the group where names make up most of the selection process, Original Score).  This year, though, we've seen an odd situation developing in the Best Visual Effects category.  For the first time in a few years (likely since 2011), there's no clear frontrunner for the actual trophy.  What's even weirder is that there seems to be a relatively thin list of "plausible" contenders.  With public tastes shifting away from the sorts of giant "bold and groundbreaking" visual effects of films like Avatar, Life of Pi, and Gravity toward more traditional action-adventures, this category, which greatly preferred the former, has less options for the gigantic CGI-style films that have been a huge part of the category in the past.  As a result, I figured we'd devote this Wednesday morning to looking at some of the films that are contending for Oscar-nominee status.

About the only film that seems pretty much certain to make the list is Star Wars: The Force Awakens.  All but one of the George Lucas franchise's entries have competed for Visual Effects (Revenge of the Sith strangely being the holdout, with AMPAS weirdly choosing War of the Worlds over their favorite pet of ILM), and I suspect the decade since Revenge of the Sith along with no clear prestige frontrunner (this category has become a proxy place to honor the effects-driven Best Picture nominee), has made this not only a surefire nominee, but the frontrunner for the trophy.

After that, though, no film comes without its baggage.  While AMPAS has had an aversion to comic book films in the past, that has never affected a film starring Iron Man (all four of Downey's entries have made it), so I suspect the gargantuan box office of Age of Ultron combined with this trend should be enough for AMPAS to recognize, but does anyone even remember this movie in the wake of Jurassic World?  And the original, which was a MUCH bigger deal, only landed one slot-is it possible this is the staggering upset that's about to happen in the category?  It might not even make bronze on the worldwide box office!  I suspect that Jurassic World is probably ahead of Ultron considering the Box Office, though pretty much everyone agrees that the 22-year-old original is better in every way, including VFX, so this isn't a guarantee (in a stronger year this would be a bigger question mark).

Tomorrowland appears to still be in the hunt.

Even if all three of these films make it, which isn't a guarantee, that leaves two slots and no really obvious options.  The Martian is prestigious and from Ridley Scott, but his track record lately has been spotty at best (Exodus: Gods and Kings, anyone?), and The Martian is coming on the trail of back-to-back space odysseys winning this category (Gravity and Interstellar)-won't the Academy be a bit sick of it, particularly considering the trailer doesn't indicate it equals either of those films?  If it's a Best Picture contender it'll score, but until I see evidence of that I'm skeptical.  Tomorrowland is an option, though it fizzled at the Box Office and didn't really make an indent on anyone (Real Steel didn't either, so don't totally dismiss this, and Tomorrowland is ILM's only significant non-sequel this year, so that could be a benefit).  And there's Pan, which does have the whole fantasy epic thing going for it (Snow White and the Huntsman and Alice in Wonderland are recent examples where this was actually a plus), but will Oscar respond?  And more importantly, will audiences-eventually fairy tale fatigue is going to set in, and considering this is Joe Wright it might be better than expected but also less audience-friendly.

A smart person would bet on those six being the contenders, but what's the fun in stopping there?  This category occasionally throws a huge curve (Captain America: The Winter Soldier wasn't on ANYONE'S radar last year), and there's a few names that could sneak in in a weak year.  Ex Machina is sure to show up on best-of lists at the end of the year, and it does have wonderful effects, but they aren't as showy as we usually see here (lest we forget, The Tree of Life also missed in this category).  Action adventures like Mad Max: Fury Road and Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation could both make it, though it's worth noting neither have had any previous entries in their respective series make this category so that would be a stretch.  Everest, Crimson Peak, and In the Heart of the Sea all have that prestige thing going for them and are effects films (particularly the Ron Howard one), but how effects-driven remains to be seen, and In the Heart has to contend with a lot of recent films that missed whose highlights were a giant wave (The Impossible and 2012 both missed the cut).  Finally we have one of the odder Academy possibilities, but part of me thinks it could happen: Furious 7.  Think about it-outside of Twilight, this is the highest-grossing franchise in cinematic history to never garner an Oscar nomination, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 81% (not shabby), and it has the added bonus of being a MASSIVE hit (it would be the highest-grossing film of all time to not be an Oscar nominee).  Plus, sentiment over Paul Walker could help tremendously-you may scoff, but I am willing to bet money it makes the bake-off, even though it's more traditional special effects have gone out of vogue with Oscar.

So right now I'm going to guess Jurassic World, Avengers, Star Wars, Pan, and Tomorrowland, with Furious 7 as my alternate.  How about yourselves?  What are your guesses for the VFX Oscar?  Who are you rooting hardest for?  And what film do you most want to see?  Share in the comments!