The Winners
Gov. Jeb Bush
Let's be honest here-the entire Republican Party waited WAY too long to discuss the incendiary and racist comments brought forth by Donald Trump, but if there was one Republican who got actual credit for denouncing him, it was Jeb Bush. Bush's stances on immigration and his links to the Hispanic community frequently put him at odds with the GOP, but he's going to gain a lot of points from the establishment for trying to end a problem they don't want to deal with; Donald Trump is not Herman Cain in the sense that he has endless money and endless media and is someone who thrives off of bombast. As a result, the establishment will be looking to the big guns to see which of them is willing to step into the ring and take Trump out to make this less embarrassing than it already has been. If Bush does that, he'll gain in the invisible primary.
This is the best thing that has happened to Hillary Clinton in a while. Without Trump, people would be focusing on the giant missteps her campaign has run into, particularly the ridiculous rope circle that she had at a parade this past weekend and the comical way she is keeping the media at bay. With Trump in the race though, Clinton will never be doing the most ridiculous thing, and can get solid press out of "this is who the Republicans have on their side." Really, Bernie Sanders also gains from this as well-Clinton and Sanders can hash it out, but they're never going to enter the level of vitriol that Trump and his fellow Republicans are going to get into in upcoming debates.
Sen. Ted Cruz
Here's the in that Ted Cruz has been trying to find. What Trump has illustrated more than anything is that there's an appetite for someone like him still in the GOP (those second place polls in New Hampshire are surprising, but show a thirst for someone who truly hates the Obama administration). Trump is not someone the GOP would allow to be the nominee, ever, but they might realize that they need someone like him on the ticket, but with perhaps a little more credibility, such as a sitting US Senator?
Dr. Ben Carson
Like Cruz, Carson is going to gain from comparison to Trump-anything he says is always going to feel a little less crazy than the Donald's reactions to situations. While he won't ever be the nominee either, he can definitely grow in stature if Trump falters but his followers feel the want here for someone more bombastic. That could translate to media/book money, as well as potentially a run for a lesser office than the White House down the road.
Donald Trump
Trump already got what he wanted out of this run. Yes, he lost $50 million and that number is probably going to be growing, but regardless of how much money he has, it's still a paltry sum compared to his net worth, and what Donald Trump really wants is people talking about him. Mission accomplished.
The Losers
I don't feel sympathy for the head of the RNC very often, but he sure has himself in a pickle right now. He's got to include Trump in the first debates unless his support plummets (he's in second place in New Hampshire-that's undeniable in terms of a ten-candidate debate), but he also risks his party's eventual nominee taking stances that will hurt themselves in the general (or they'll risk losing the far right). The exact same thing happened to John McCain in 2008 and especially Mitt Romney in 2012, costing them dearly in the general. As a result, the Republicans are being pushed into a corner that Priebus, who initially saw Walker, Rubio, Bush, and Christie and thought "there's no way I can lose," didn't think he'd have to face a year ago.
The Media
Seriously-this is your fault. A candidate like this should have been taken out (metaphorically) at the knees the instant he came out. This is partially your fault for making Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson, forebearers of Trump, seem like legitimate contenders, but Trump is just a celebrity, and should have been treated as a circus act, especially after that initial roll-out. He wasn't, though, and he was treated with the same blase attitude CNN/the major networks treat all of the news, and as a result we have a major monkey wrench in the national conversation, one that is going to hurt...
America's Image Abroad
We finally got a president that generally is pretty popular abroad (excepting Israel and Russia and occasionally Germany), and we're just going to toss that away? What happens if Donald Trump actually wins a primary? How embarrassing is that going to be? It'd be like London voting for Mr. Bean...not the actor, but the actual character. Donald Trump as a serious presidential contender is the worst thing to happen to a primary since Pat Robertson was a serious presidential contender.
Govs. John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, and Scott Walker, as well as Sens. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul had better be hoping that Donald Trump isn't a real contender, because that could be seriously detrimental to their presidential runs. I illustrated above why Jeb Bush gains from this, but there's another reason-if Donald Trump actually wins an early primary or starts racking up a number of seconds or thirds, the GOP is going to take a quick look, realize that they need to get in-line and nominate the best alternative, in this case Jeb Bush, perhaps the only competitor who can compete with Trump monetarily. Look at 1996, when someone like Lamar Alexander may have been able to take Bob Dole out in a head-to-head, but when Pat Buchanan became an option the Republicans quickly got behind Dole to avoid a catastrophe.
Moderate Republicans in Congress
If there's anyone who is dreading the Trump candidacy as much as Reince Priebus, it's Republican moderates who haven't completely fended off primaries just yet. People like John McCain, Kelly Ayotte, and Pat Toomey are going to have to answer to Trump's comments pretty soon (Democrats are going to be linking them to him as much as they can), and they don't want to be fenced in either by Republicans from the right (this is particularly an issue for McCain, who is likely to have a Tea Party challenger), but also not want to be hurt by agreeing with Trump, as that's going to be a general election ad waiting to happen.
Those are my thoughts-what about yours? Who gains and loses (aside from the American populace) in a Trump candidacy?
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