The State of the Governors

State Superintendent Glenda Ritz (D-IN)

With all of the sexiness of the White House and Senate recruitments, it's easy to forget that we do, in fact, have a set of a few governors' races coming up over the next two years.  Still, ambitious pols haven't forgotten about this, and we're starting to see that as more and more candidates (usually in this case more state legislature and constitutional officer style candidates rather than federal candidates) are filing into the races in hopes of getting that promotion onto the national stage (not for nothing, but Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Martin O'Malley, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, John Kasich, and Chris Christie all prove that being governor of a state, regardless of the state's size, can be a solid ground to start a bid to be president).  Here are the five most competitive races, with number one being most likely to exchange hands:

Honorable Mention: The announcement that Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin won't run for reelection literally just happened while I was researching this article, so I haven't had time to process his victory.  He did take over for a Republican and considering the hard-blue stance of the state it might seem odd to realize that usually Republicans win statehouses here, but it's too soon to add to the list, though I suspect that Lt. Governor Phil Scott (R) and Attorney General Bill Sorrell (D) will both be exploring a potentially competitive race.

Attorney General Jack Conway (D-KY)

5. Kentucky

The Democrats got what had to be the best news of the cycle for them so far when Matt Bevin, a Tea Party candidate loathed by establishment Bluegrass Republicans, won the nomination by a handful of votes.  While Sen. McConnell has endorsed him, it's hard to imagine him helping out the guy who was trashing his reputation all through last year's Senate primary.  All-the-while, the Democrats are armed with a solidly popular incumbent (Steve Beshear) and a likable Attorney General in Jack Conway.  This is a Republican state in the South, which was poisonous for the Democrats in 2014, but polling shows Conway with a lead over Bevin, and it's already June (this election is this year, not next), so the Democrats may have lucked themselves into a win. (Previous Ranking: 4)

4. Indiana

Gov. Mike Pence (R) is clearly in trouble.  The Indiana Republican has had a rough year, with huge battles over education and gay rights leaving him in a position where he had to turn down a run at the White House to focus instead on his increasingly tenuous hold on the governor's mansion.  Democrats are lining around the block to take on Pence, including State Superintendent Glenda Ritz (the only Democrat who holds a constitutional office in the Hoosier State) and former State House Speaker John Gregg, who ran against Pence in a very close election in 2012 (much closer than expected).  The question here is Hillary Clinton.  It seems certain that the Republican will win here in 2016 in the race for the White House, but by how much-I think, given Pence's unpopularity, that the Democrats could probably make up a 3-5% loss by Hillary Clinton, but not much more than that.  It also is hard to tell how Gregg and Ritz will handle each other (potentially coming out as damaged goods in the primary) or which one, quite frankly, is the better candidate. (Previous Ranking: 5)

Attorney General Roy Cooper (D-NC)

3. North Carolina

Polling in the Tarheel State is similar in a lot of ways to Indiana.  Right now, Gov. Pat McCrory (R) has a slight lead in most polling over Attorney General Roy Cooper, but they are small leads and ones that could be overcome in a stronger environment for the Democrats.  This state is slightly more Democratic than the Hoosier State (it went for Obama in 2008, like Indiana, but it is frequently forgotten that it very nearly went for him again in 2012), and surely will be a state that Hilary Clinton pushes for, and one that if she were to win the Democrats have a decent shot of taking out McCrory, definitely the most vulnerable incumbent governor at this stage of the race.  The biggest question here is the Senate race-will former Sen. Kay Hagan, who ran a masterful campaign in 2014 but came up short, get on the ticket?  A strong partner on the road could certainly help Cooper, and he definitely doesn't want an unknown on the ticket that could bring the race too far left (ala EW Jackson in Virginia in 2013). (Previous Ranking: 3)

2. Missouri

The best that Democrats can hope for in Missouri is that the GOP candidates have a highly-dysfunctional primary, as Gov. Jay Nixon is unpopular and after the incidents in Ferguson it's likely that many citizens of the Show Me State want a change in leadership.  The Democrats have coalesced around Attorney General Chris Koster (as you might be able to tell, between Koster, Cooper, and Conway, the Democrats are putting a lot of eggs in the Attorney General basket this cycle), while the Republicans have a contested primary with former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway and State Senate Majority Whip Mike Parson battling it out (former State Auditor Tom Schweich was a candidate, but famously committed suicide over allegations regarding his religious faith earlier this year).  Whichever Republican wins, they likely start with an advantage over Koster in the general. (Previous Ranking: 2)

1. West Virginia

The Democrats appear to have a candidate that might actually add some intrigue into the race for West Virginia's governor: Jim Justice.  You might not recognize the name, but the coal and resort executive is well-known in the Mountain State, and name recognition isn't his only asset: he also has roughly $1.6 billion, which will go a LONG way if he writes himself some personal checks in West Virginia, which isn't a particularly expensive media market.  Democrats such as State Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler and US Attorney Booth Goodwin both are looking at the race, but that kind of money is daunting, particularly in a race where any Democrat starts as the underdog.  Republicans are looking almost certain to have a contested primary, with Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Senate President Bill Cole both looking at the race to succeed term-limited incumbent Earl Ray Tomblin (D).  Considering the walloping Democrats received in 2014 (with Natalie Tennant and Rep. Nick Rahall both losing in landslides) it's hard to see a way the left holds this race, but I am curious to see what impact Justice's substantial reserves have on the race (Previous Ranking: 1)