Due to the historically large majority the Republicans have, plus the fact that we're heading into a presidential election, it seems near certain that the Democrats will be at the advantage, and our list below reflects that (of the fifteen seats profiled, only three are currently held by a Democrat). Still, this race will largely reflect on the strength of the nominees for president, as a blowout for either candidate will likely cause a lot of status quo or turnover below. Without further adieu, let's look at the fifteen most competitive races (with number one being most likely to exchange hands):
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| Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) |
A lot in Colorado's sixth depends on whether or not Rep. Mike Coffman fancies himself a senator or not. The district, which crosses the Denver suburbs, is a marginal district that favors Democrats by the slightest of margins in presidential years. Colorado, the ultimate swing state, delivered a major blow for Democrats last cycle by watching Sen. Mark Udall lose and Coffman clobber State Speaker Andrew Romanoff. If Coffman smells blood in the water, he might go after Sen. Michael Bennet in a race he'd have right-of-first-refusal for, but I am inclined to believe he'll run for reelection, in which case he'll remain a slight favorite. Democrats have their sights set on Centennial City Councilor Rebecca McClellan as their candidate.
14. New York-19
This district hosted the embarrassing race between Rep. Chris Gibson and multimillionaire Sean Eldridge last year, where Eldridge ran a pitiful campaign and got clobbered despite this being a district that went for President Obama. Gibson is retiring this year which gives Democrats a major opening, though they first need to beg Eldridge, who has unlimited funds thanks to his marriage to Chris Hughes (one of the founders of Facebook), not to run. Democrats seem to have Ulster County Executive Mike Hein as well as as former State Sen. Terry Gipson as their top choices, while Republicans have Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin making noise about the race. Either way, provided that neither side picks an abysmal candidate, an open race here will remain competitive throughout the year.
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| Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) |
One of only three seats held by a Democrat listed here, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is nothing if not a survivor. In 2014, despite her neighboring congressman Ron Barber losing (and basically EVERY other incumbent Democrat with her profile losing), she hung on even with a credible Republican challenger. This is a seat with a PVI of R+4, so the Republicans will continue to go after Kirkpatrick, though most credible candidates seem to be looking the other way, perhaps hoping that Kirkpatrick will be more vulnerable in a midterm or that she'll run statewide in 2016 or 2018. Either way, this seat remains on the list as long as there are Republicans considering the race, though Kirkpatrick has to be pretty pleased with the current situation.
12. Virginia-10
Rep. Barbara Comstock handily won the race to succeed Republican Rep. Frank Wolf in 2014, but considering that this is one of the swingiest districts in the country (it went for President Obama by 3-points in 2008, Mitt Romney by 1-point in 2012), and that this will be a solid battleground for the electoral votes in the Old Dominion, expect a much closer race next year. Comstock starts with an advantage in that her two most formidable opponents (State Sen. Jennifer Wexton and State Rep. Kathleen Murphy) both have to run for reelection to the state legislatures later this year, and won't be able to get much of a lead on fundraising. That being said, Comstock is a major foe of the Clintons (she played a key role in Bill Clinton's impeachment trial), and I suspect that Hillary Clinton will make it a personal mission to convert this district along her presidential campaign, if only so she won't have to deal with Comstock were she to be elected to the White House.
11. Iowa-3
One of those rare districts with an even PVI, this race would have been a lot different in 2012, as most agree that State Sen. Staci Appel (D) ran a better race than David Young, but the national mood won him the seat. He's running for a second term, and there's a decent chance we'll see a rematch. This seat has historically gone for the Republicans, and Sen. Chuck Grassley will be on the ballot helping his former Chief of Staff, but the presidential race will likely overshadow the House race (it won't, however, hurt Grassley, who will win reelection until the end of time). Appel may have company in the primary from State Sen. Matt McCoy or even former Governor Chet Culver, but either way this race should be a close one.
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| Lt. Governor Jim Cawley (R-PA) |
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is sticking to his term-limit pledge, much to the chagrin of many a person at the NRCC, making this seat extremely competitive (it went for President Obama by a wide margin in 2008 and for Mitt Romney by a tenth of a percentage point in 2012). Republicans have a bevy of candidates (Democrats are not great at bench-building in the Keystone State), led by former Lt. Governor Jim Cawley and State Rep. Scott Petri. Democrats seem to be rallying behind State Rep. Steve Santarsiero. I would put odds on the Republican slightly winning this in a neutral environment (this district, locally, is still pretty Republican), but if the Democrats have any sort of wind to their backs this is a seat that would fall into their column.
9. New Hampshire-1
The local residents might not like it, but we could well be looking at a fourth consecutive race between Rep. Frank Guinta (R) and former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Shea-Porter is purportedly taking a look at the race for the seat she held from 2007-2011 and from 2013-15. No other district in the nation has been more likely to swing with whatever mood the country is in, so if the Democrats are doing well here expect Shea-Porter to pull it off again. If not, I suspect that Guinta will take it in hopes of the back-and-forth ending between the two.
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| Rep. Pete Gallego (D-TX) |
This race is on this list thanks to former Rep. Pete Gallego's intent to run for his old seat. Gallego, personally popular but ousted in a tough cycle last year, seems to be on much better footing this cycle against Rep. Will Hurd, particularly since the district's 55% Hispanic population should be coming out much stronger in a presidential race than in a midterm. This is a seat that is really dependent on Gallego winning for Democrats to have a chance in the future (all things being equal, Hurd is the better fit for the district but Gallego is arguably the better politician), so expect a strong push from the DCCC.
7. Illinois-10
With a PVI of D+8, this is the most Democratic district in the country to be currently held by a Republican, and Rep. Bob Dold is aware of this. Dold has already started to court a more moderate profile than he did in his first term (2011-13), and should be helped by not having Illinois native Barack Obama at the top of the ballot like he did in 2012 when he lost to former Rep. Brad Schneider. Schneider, like several candidates from 2014, is looking at this race in what will surely be a more hospitable environment, though he won't be alone: Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rodkin Rotering is also running for the seat in what may be one of the more competitive and combative primaries the Democrats host this year in the House. Expect whenever one of these candidates get through to be extremely formidable against Dold in the general, however, considering the strong Democratic-tint of the district on a national level.
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| State Sen. Emily Cain (D-ME) |
Maine's second is another repeat of the same tune: Democratic PVI, Republican carried in by the 2014 wave. The only difference here is that it was over an open seat, but that isn't stopping former State Sen. Emily Cain (D) from taking another stab at the seat she lost in 2014. Cain has been a rising star in the Pine Tree State for years now, but considering that Rep. Bruce Poliquin clobbered her in 2014, don't expect her to get a clean ride here to the nomination for what is a very rare shot at a promotion (the state tends to have members of Congress that rarely retire and rarely lose reelection). State House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe and former State Senate Majority Leader Troy Jackson both could look at this seat. The district is likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, so whichever Democrat wins here will probably be hugging her pretty closely and hoping that they can grab some coattails.
5. Iowa-1
Most Democrats agree that this district, the most Democratic in Iowa, was lost because of a poor campaign by State Sen. Pat Murphy, who ceded this seat to Rep. Rod Blum. Blum starts out at a really distinct disadvantage here as the seat is surely to go for the Democratic nominee for president, and as a result he'll have to fight the tide with only one-term under his belt. Democrats are helping him out a bit by coalescing around Monica Vernon, a failed 2014 candidate (she lost the primary to Murphy) who has underwhelmed so far on the campaign trail. This has led to some consideration for a more seasoned pro like former Governor Chet Culver (who is also rumored for the third district, but would have a better shot here) to make a comeback bid of sorts. Culver lost his seat in 2010 but is not yet fifty and it seems a bit early for a once-promising candidate to give up his career so soon. This may be the way he regains a foothold. If a Democrat wins here, expect them to instantly start looking at taking on Sen. Joni Ernst in 2020.
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| State Sen. Chip Maxwell (R-NE) |
The most vulnerable incumbent Democrat in the country is surely Rep. Brad Ashford in this Nebraska district. Ashford won in 2014 in large part due to the poor campaign skills (and foot-in-mouth-prone nature) of Rep. Lee Terry. Ashford, however, hasn't proven to be a particularly adroit campaigner and supposedly loathes raising money, which is necessary in a district that swings this ferociously (it famously was won by President Obama in 2008 but was picked back up by Mitt Romney in 2012). Republicans are clamoring for the seat, with Brigadier General Don Bacon, State Senator Chip Maxwell, and State Senator John Murante amongst the most frequently mentioned names. Ashford had better up his game since this is a seat the Republicans will surely win in 2016 on a presidential level, as otherwise he's going to be the rare (perhaps even only) Democratic incumbent who loses next year.
3. New York-24
Easily the weirdest race of 2014 was this one, where virtual unknown John Katko clobbered incumbent Rep. Dan Maffei by 20-points, despite this have a Cook PVI of +5. This is almost unheard of, and was perhaps the biggest wake-up call for Democrats headed into the 2016 game-plan. Katko has incumbency to rely upon, but voter turnout will be stronger in 2016 if the Democrats can find a decent candidate. Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner is surely at the top of the "to recruit" list, but seems uninterested in the race despite the fact that her term will end right in line with the start of the congressional session (it is worth noting that she's been meeting with Katko and Sen. Chuck Schumer about stronger needs for federal support for infrastructural repairs...possibly a window into her campaign?). Otherwise the bench is pretty thin, and it's worth noting that Maffei, were he to run, could well win the nomination, though after two extremely winnable losses I suspect the appetite amongst Empire State Democrats is that they'd prefer someone else.
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| State Sen. Joe Abruzzo (D-FL) |
Rep. Patrick Murphy's decision to run for the open Senate seat in the Sunshine State was praised by the DSCC but secretly booed by the DCCC, as this seat, one of the few in the country to be held by a Democrat but to have a Republican PVI, became Number One on the NRCC's must-have list. Already Republicans are being listed for the seat en masse, with State Reps. Gayle Harrell and Pat Rooney, Jr. (brother of Rep. Tom Rooney) being put alongside Martin County School Board Member Rebecca Negron and County Commissioner Ted Mowery. Expect a multi-candidate race here as this is a great stepping-stone district to statewide office. On the Democratic side we see State Senate Minority Whip Joe Abruzzo joining a host of prominent County Commissioners from Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties. I suspect the Republican would have the advantage here, particularly if Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio are outperforming statewide.
1. Nevada-4
If there was a true fluke win in 2014, it was Rep. Crescent Hardy's victory over incumbent Steven Horsford. The district has a D+4 PVI and went for President Obama by double-digits in both of his presidential elections. Democrats are lining up around the block to run here, with State Sen. Ruben Kiheun (a favorite of Sen. Harry Reid) and State Rep. Lucy Flores (another favorite of Reid's) already in the race. Whichever Democrat ends up through the primary would start as a strong favorite to win this seat, which is surely a matter-of-time situation for Hardy (quite frankly, he'd probably have a better shot at winning Reid's Senate seat than winning reelection).
And there you have it-the fifteen most competitive House races in the country! Share your thoughts in the comments section below!
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