5 Thoughts on Yesterday's Elections

It's Wednesday which usually means that we do an entertainment article, but I wanted to weigh in on some of yesterday's primaries, as it appears that we have one of our rare "5 thoughts" article opportunities considering it's an off-year election.  Here are my thoughts on yesterday's elections...

Matt Bevin (R-KY)

1. The Kentucky Republicans are in a Quagmire

The biggest news yesterday was in the Bluegrass State, where the Republican Party has developed a pickle.  The primary, a three-way race between Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin, and businessmen Hal Heiner, was upended a few weeks ago when allegations of emotional and physical abuse against Comer, the establishment candidate, were levied by an old girlfriend.  As a result, Bevin and Heiner gained significantly, with the former gaining enough to be in the lead, after all votes were counted, by a miniscule 83 votes.  This is a staggeringly close election that will surely go to a recount, but the Republicans are now left with a pretty badly-beaten frontrunner.  You either have Comer, who will be targeted because of the abuse charges and may lose moderates if they gather steam or more exes come out of the woodwork, or you'll have Bevin, who created a huge issue in last year's primaries when he challenged Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and then refused to endorse him after he lost.  McConnell has made no bones about loathing Bevin and as the GOP's key powerbroker in the state could tacitly endorse Bevin but not provide support, essentially giving the governor's race to Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who after two failed bids for Congress, is probably on his last shot at winning a major office, and this is looking more and more like his best shot.

2. The Governor's Race Matters Downballot

Not only does the governor's race matter in part because of who will run the state and also because the Democrats have had enormous difficulty in the South in holding or picking up seats (Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear is the only Southern state governor aside from from Virginia's Terry McAuliffe to be a Democrat, and has to retire), but it's one of the few states that still has a pretty robust bench for the left.  However, with most of the constitutional officers term-limited, this has left the Democrats vulnerable on this front. Having Conway victorious at the top of the ballot could help reelection bids by up-and-comers like State Auditor Adam Edelen and everyone's favorite triply-named Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, as well as assist an open seat bid for Attorney General by incumbent Gov. Beshear's son Andy.

Attorney General Jack Conway (D-KY)

3. Rand Paul is Watching Too

Perhaps no one is paying more attention to the race than Sen. Rand Paul, who is up for reelection in 2016, but also has his designs on the White House.  As a result, he's been trying to push a piece of legislation across the governor's desk that would allow him to run for both offices at once.  However, Gov. Beshear, who is aware that the Democrats would have a better shot at the seat if it were open (and he himself might even run if that were the case) has said no dice.  If Jack Conway ends up becoming governor, there's a 100% chance he'll say the same thing to help out Beshear or another Democrat (perhaps even Grimes again), putting Paul in a position similar to Marco Rubio in Florida where he can't have his office and run for a higher one too.

4. Republicans Gain in Florida

The evening wasn't all bad news for the Republicans, as they won a major race in the Sunshine State.  Republican Lenny Curry ended up ousting incumbent Mayor Alvin Brown in Jacksonville, the state's largest city.  Curry was able to use Jacksonville's rising crime rates (an issue that is resonating in a lot of big-city mayoral races, so this could be a canary-in-the-coal-mine situation) as leverage against Brown to win back the mayor's office, which has been held by only one Democrat in the past thirty years: Alvin Brown.

5. Jim Kenney Victorious in Pennsylvania

Democratic City Councilman Jim Kenney emerged victorious from a crowded primary field to win the nomination for the left, defeating State Sen. Anthony Williams. Kenney was seen as the more progressive of the two candidates, and is all but assured the win in the heavily blue Phuladelphia. Williams performance was pretty underwhelming for an African-American candidate in Philly, particularly after the robust turnouts for John Street and Michael Nutter over the past two decades. Kenney's win is also a victory for NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, who heartily endorsed him and has been trying to expand his nation reach for a theoretical run for higher office.