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| Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) |
1. The Nomination is Hers
During SNL this past weekend, Kate McKinnon made a crack during her impression of Sec. Clinton about Gov. Martin O'Malley and how he had absolutely no chance of beating her in the primary. This was played for laughs (and, side note, it should be noted that no one gains more outside of the political sphere than Kate McKinnon from Hillary's run-she'll probably end up with an Emmy as a result of this), but it's the truth. Hillary Clinton doesn't have to worry about the primary. Yes, she'll run against someone, whether it's O'Malley or some random sideline player like Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Sen. Jim Webb, or former Gov. Lincoln Chafee, but she's already won the nomination, and likely won't even lose one competitive state. Even if some major Democratic juggernaut like Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, or Al Gore were to run (probably the only three candidates that would raise an eyebrow over at the Clinton camp), the best they could probably hope for is a respectable showing like Sen. Bill Bradley got against Al Gore in 2000, and it's worth noting that if the Number 2 slot is what they're shooting for, Bradley was nowhere near Gore's running mate list. With the nomination in the bag she won't have to take particularly unappealing stances to the general electorate to get the nomination, like the Republicans will have to do...
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| Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) |
A Republican will receive the nomination for POTUS, and will certainly do respectably in 2016, starting off with 47% of the popular vote that Hillary just won't be able to touch. However, he (sorry Carly Fiorina, it's going to be a guy) won't be able to do so without having to go through the Tea Party ringer. Jeb Bush is inarguably the most palatable general election candidate, but it's difficult to see how he wins the nomination without first taking some stances that will poison his moderate credentials. Just look at what 2008 did to John McCain and 2012 did to Mitt Romney. Even someone like Bush will have to go on record regarding issues such as climate change, immigration, and gay marriage in a way that is going to be against the vast majority of Americans in hopes of taking the nomination. And that's going to be something the Clinton camp will pounce upon. Part of the reasons that Mitt Romney lost to a president with middling approval ratings in the middle of a bad economy were self-inflicted wounds from the primary-you can't have your cake and eat it too in politics, and that's what the GOP is going to (likely unsuccessfully) attempt over the next year.
3. The Electoral College is Stacked in Her Favor
Much has been made about Hillary losing ground in several key swing states, according to polling from Quinnipiac University. She saw a significant drop in her numbers in Colorado and Iowa, resulting largely in relation to her email controversy. These are things that shouldn't be taken lightly, and if the email furor continues, she should find a way to stop the bleeding. However, it's difficult seeing the email blip mattering in a year or so, and more to the point, Hillary Clinton doesn't need Colorado and Iowa in the same way that Republicans do. If Mrs. Clinton can win all 18 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have gone for the Democrats since her husband's initial election in 1992, that's 242 electoral votes off the bat, just 28 shy of the nomination. While admittedly that's assuming that a break doesn't happen in continually close states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it's safe to assume that Republicans are banking on every state they've won the last six cycles in a row. Those 242 electoral votes, it should be noted, don't include a state like New Mexico, which has gone from swing state to fairly blue, as well as states that Barack Obama won like Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia (a state, it's worth noting, that Quinnipiac continued to see strength for the Clinton camp). Those states add up to 105 electoral votes, more than enough votes to win the White House even if Hillary loses the bulk of them. That's really tough math for any Republican to counter, as they start with 191 likely electoral college votes, meaning they need most of that 105 swing state count to win the White House.
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| Sec. Clinton with President Obama |
One of the key assumptions of the above is that Hillary Clinton will be able to re-assemble the same voting blocs that Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. While it's very apparent that she will likely be able to win the same percentages as the President did, it's difficult to believe that she'll be able to get the turnout that President Obama did amongst African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans. Still, she'll be able to win an enormous majority of these voters while probably picking up some of the demographics where the President lacked. For starters, she'll likely do better with working-class white voters, many of whom prospered during the Clinton administration and who voted for her in droves in the 2008 presidential primary. These voters will help to shore up states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin where President Obama comparatively underperformed. In addition, several voting groups that the Democrats have done well with (particularly Millennials and Hispanics) have grown in size (and it's worth noting that that Harvard poll about younger Millennials voting more for Republicans seems to have not matched exit polling in 2014). So while she won't have the same coalition in sheer size as President Obama, she'll be able to make up for those gaps in a variety of ways, including...
5. Women are Ready for a Female President
In 2008, one of the more calculated misses that the Clinton camp made was in not recognizing the historical nature of her candidacy. She tried to run simply a presidential candidacy, not acknowledging the fact that she would be the first female president if she were to win. That mistake is not happening in 2016, and Hillary knows it. Getting moderate, independent, and in particular senior citizen women to the polls is going to be crucial for Hillary, and while she won't lay it out as often personally (much like Barack Obama rarely mentioned the historical nature of his candidacy), her surrogates sure will. Gains amidst moderate women and Silent Generation/Baby Boomer women will be a huge coup for Mrs. Clinton, particularly if she can hold together the bulk of President Obama's coalition-it could mean big gains in states like Florida and Ohio, and may actually help the Democrats down-ballot, where it seems a record number of female candidates appear to be running for major offices.
So for all of these five reasons, it's clear to see that Hillary Clinton starts at an advantage. In-between now and November 2016, of course, there could be things that stand in the way of those advantages: an economic downturn, a national security crisis, a scandal emerging from either the Clinton camp or the Obama administration-any of these things could be a deal-breaker. But for now, the Democrats have to feel pretty confident in their chances at holding the White House for another four years.
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