2015 Tony Predictions

Tony-Winner Mary-Louise Parker and movie star-icon Bruce Willis (who is making his Broadway debut this fall) will announce the Tony nominees next Tuesday.  It's been an annual tradition here at the blog for me to take a stab at the nominations as I love Broadway.  L-O-V-E.  However, I'm not quite as good at it as I was when I actually lived in New York and was seeing all of these shows.  With that caveat thrown out there, let's take a look at the Big 8 categories (ordered from most to least likely to be nominated)!

Best Musical

1. Fun Home
2. Something Rotten
3. An American in Paris
4. Finding Neverland

The Lowdown: Not a particularly robust lineup this year, and while there's no clear frontrunner for the win, Fun Home is starting to fill that void a bit.  It's hard to imagine any of these shows, quite frankly, getting denied-the first two are duking it out for the trophy while the second two, with their movie tie-ins, are going to be easy sells when Broadway tours start hopping (that's when the real long-term investment money comes, and why so many people invest in movie-musicals, since it's easy to market nationally).  The only other show that remotely seems like it's in the running is The Visit, and that seems a stronger contender in Best Actress.

Best Play

1. Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
2. Wolf Hall, Parts 1 and 2
3. The Audience
4. Airline Highway

The Lowdown: The question with the Tonys is always how long is their memory?  Rarely do closed plays get nominated, and that's what's holding me back from predicting Constellations, which had terrific reviews and star-power in Oscar nominee Jake Gyllenhaal.  There's also the Pulitzer Prize-winning Disgraced that could compete.  However, I'm going with a show that's still on Broadway, the Joe Mantello-directed Airline Highway, which might benefit more from the nomination at this point (the other three seem pretty solidly set).

Best Revival of a Musical

1. The King and I
2. On the Twentieth Century
3. On the Town

The Lowdown: It's always hard to know what happens when there's only a slim amount of contenders (this year, only five), but I think it means that we only get three nominees here.  If that's the case, this is almost assuredly the lineup as Side Show didn't come close here and Gigi is probably not going to have the momentum to take down one of these three big shows.  If there are four nominees, however, consider it the lucky last contender.

Best Revival of a Play

1. Skylight
2. You Can't Take It With You
3. The Elephant Man
4. It's Only a Play

The Lowdown: There's always so many contenders in this category it's hard to know where to begin or end (except to know that Skylight will be nominated).  The Elephant Man made WAY too big of an impact not to be nominated, even if it's already closed, and It's Only a Play stars Tony winners Matthew Broderick and Nathan Lane (there are probably still Tony voters who are getting residual checks for The Producers).  As a result I'm going for this lineup over The Heidi Chronicles and A Delicate Balance, both of which could definitely be threats.

Best Actor in a Musical

1. Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
2. Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)
3. Brian d'Arcy James (Something Rotten)
4. Peter Gallagher (On the Twentieth Century)
5. Ken Watanabe (The King and I)

The Lowdown: This is where I wish I still lived in New York, as right now it's all about the buzz, and the buzz for musical-acting is always about the leading women (it's one of the few categories where every critic pretty much agrees, consistently, that the leading ladies outmatch the leading men).  As a result, beyond the Top 3 (who seem pretty much set), the question is which famous names get selected. I'm going with Gallagher and Watanabe, who are headlining the two main contenders for Best Revival, but Matthew Morrison (Finding Neverland) and Tony Yazbeck (On the Town) would both be solid decisions.

Best Actress in a Musical

1. Kelli O'Hara (The King and I)
2. Chita Rivera (The Visit)
3. Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)
4. Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)
5. Laura Michelle Kelly (Finding Neverland)

The Lowdown: Easily the most competitive race for a nomination this year in the musical categories, the Top 3 seem pretty set in stone (though the Tonys have gone really cold on Chenoweth since Wicked for some reason, so she could well be a shocker snub like with The Apple Tree and Promises, Promises).  I could see either of the two-headed sisters in Side Show (Emily Padgett or Erin Davie) making it on the list, but they won't have the same "share-the-nomination" advantage that happened when the original was run and will probably vote-split.  I also think that we underestimate Vanessa Hudgens in Gigi at our own peril-she's got solid reviews and is a Hollywood name in a year that doesn't have many of them.

Best Actor in a Play

1. Alex Sharp (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
2. Bill Nighy (Skylight)
3. Ben Miles (Wolf Hall, Parts 1 and 2)
4. Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal (Constellations)

The Lowdown: That Hollywood name idea has me thinking that this might be a really good way to get some ratings (it's also a television show people-it's sadly not always just about the performances).  Jake Gyllenhaal and Bradley Cooper both got raves for their work, and even if the plays are closed they're famous enough to linger in the memory.  As a result I'm skipping Steven Boyer, and am looking forward to what happens when unknown Alex Sharp beats two of the biggest names in Hollywood in a few weeks.

Best Actress in a Play

1. Helen Mirren (The Audience)
2. Carey Mulligan (An Education)
3. Elisabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
4. Glenn Close (A Delicate Balance)
5. Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

The Lowdown: Thankfully for Mirren and Mulligan, Sandra Bullock is not nominated this year so they don't have to lose as co-nominees again to her like they did at the Oscars five years ago.  Otherwise, this race reads like something you'd see more at the Oscars or Emmys than the Tonys.  There's always the possibility that Mia Farrow (long retired from acting, making a comeback of sorts in Love Letters) or Blythe Danner (The Country House) make the list, but this seems like a pretty strong five.

And there you have it-my guesses for the Tony nominations!  As always, your thoughts are wildly appreciated, so share them in the comments section-who are you cheering for and who are you predicting?