What Happens if Hillary Doesn't Run?

Sec. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)

There has been a lot of talk in the past week, in the wake of Hillary Clinton's ridiculous email scandal (seriously-what was she thinking?) of what would happen if the unthinkable happened: Hillary Clinton decides not to run.  First off, this is one of those situations where hyperbole seems entirely appropriate and completely unwarranted.  Democrats would, and probably should, panic a little bit.  We don't have a Plan B right now-they are all about the Hillary in 2016, and there's really no way around that.  Any candidate is going to be our second choice, and that's a cold hard fact.

And yet, second choices have run extremely competitive races in the past without issue and occasionally even won.  The likes of Lloyd Bentsen, Ann Richards, and Mario Cuomo likely would have walloped Bill Clinton in 1992 if they'd made a run for it.  Same for Colin Powell in 1996, Al Gore in 2004, and Sarah Palin in 2012 and their respective primary fields.  The electoral college initially still favors the Democrats in 2016, regardless of the nominee, and that's not going to change if Hillary isn't on the ballot.

So, after the shock and the happy dancing over at the RNC (which would probably not end until their candidate was down in the polls to the Democrat), what would happen?  I think it's important to break out the candidates into four groups to look at them: the Governors, the Senators, the Celebrities, and the Titans.  Let's investigate, shall we, and we'll start with the Governors.

Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA)

The Governors

Martin O'Malley (D-MD) is the only candidate currently making a play for the presidency, and were Hillary to back out, he'd be the first out the door with his bumper stickers.  The reality is that O'Malley makes a strong VP candidate (he's loyal, has the credentials to be president, but doesn't seem to pop enough for the top spot), but he's handsome and has a liberal dream list for 2016, so he'll certainly be credible in a race like this.  Other Democrats, however, would surely take a second look here.  Andrew Cuomo (NY) has approval ratings that are near the toilet, but has an operation that should not be mocked (his father being a legend in the Democratic Party).  Deval Patrick (MA) has long been a favorite of mine were he to run, though he may just run to be VP (he's got to be on Hillary's shortlist) and might well be done with electoral politics after his party lost the governor's mansion.  Other names to watch include Governors Chris Gregoire (WA) and Maggie Hassan (NH) (with Hillary out, a lot of ambitious women will be clamoring to run for this slot considering there are no serious Republican women on the right), as well as swing state chiefs like John Hickenloper (CO) and Terry McAuliffe (VA).

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

The Senators

You think C-Span 2 resembles a campaign ad already?  Try getting rid of Hillary Clinton.  Backbench senators with loads of ambition like Amy Klobuchar (MN), Michael Bennet (CO), and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) would surely make a play for the White House in that case (I've made this argument before, but I think Klobuchar is one of the party's secret weapons in this regard, and could become a serious player if she were to run in a Hillary-free race considering her head start in Iowa).  Bernie Sanders (VT) is already considering a go, and while I can't foresee a scenario where he would win, he'd almost surely run if he didn't have to go up against Clinton.  Either of the Virginia senators (Mark Warner and Tim Kaine) could try to make the jump from VP contender to Oval Office candidate, and there are also currently under-the-radar senators like Sherrod Brown (OH), Jeff Merkley (OR), or Claire McCaskill (MO) that could quickly change their minds if the race looks wide open.  All-in-all, that adage that a senator looks into the mirror and sees a president would never have been more true if Hillary Clinton foregoes 2016.

Sec. Julian Castro (D-TX)

The Celebrities

I purposefully didn't list the candidate everyone pits against Hillary Clinton, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) above because she's sort of out of their league in terms of momentum right now, and has crossed into the realm of a political celebrity.  Surely Warren would take another look at the race, though I'm still not convinced she could run, and if she did, that she could win (it's sort of forgotten now that she's a liberal folk hero, but she didn't run a particularly brilliant campaign in 2012).  Other political celebrities may also make the play.  Provided that he makes it through his upcoming mayoral election, Rahm Emanuel could try to make the jump straight from Mayor to President (were he to get the nomination, he'd be the first Democrat to get the nod without being a governor or senator previously since 1924).  Sen. Al Franken (MN) has just as much liberal cred as Warren and has a pretty vast network to tap into if he were to run, as does Sen. Cory Booker (NJ), the Twitter senator.  And then there's always 2012 Keynote Speaker Sec. of HUD Julian Castro who could follow in the footsteps of another recent Keynote Speaker, Barack Obama, and make a play for the White House very early in his career.

Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)

The Titans

It's worth noting that while none of them have the same sort of cache that Hillary does, there are three other candidates that could at the very least become benchmarks within the field.  The most obvious is sitting Vice President Joe Biden.  For all of his blunders and "Uncle Joe" Onion articles, the reality is that the sitting VP is always going to be taken seriously in a primary, and though I don't know that he could clinch the nomination, in a splintered field he would have to be assumed to be the frontrunner.  There's also Secretary of State John Kerry (who would be the same age as Biden in 2016)-though his performance as Secretary of State, like many things involving John Kerry, is pretty underwhelming, he's still a major force within the Democratic Party and would have an enormous donor base that he could utilize to jump ahead in the field.  Finally, there's former Vice President Al Gore who may be the stealth candidate Hillary should worry most about (he's the only person I could see actually taking her down in a primary, albeit he'd still be an underdog).  Ezra Klein chronicles here why Gore is a candidate you should take seriously, as he's beloved in some circles of the Democratic Party in a way not even Hillary can approach, and he has unmatched credentials on what may emerge as a liberal pet issue in the primaries (Climate Change).  None of these men would seem like likely contenders, but it's worth noting that they have all been running for president basically their entire lives-if a shot at the nomination opened up, even at the midnight hour of their careers, they are not foolish enough to dismiss it (I doubt any of them have gotten over their ambition to be president).

So as I illustrated above, the Democrats have a major slate of candidates, in many ways on-par with the Republicans, if Hillary doesn't run.  Which I still think she will.  Probably.