The State of the Governors

Gov. Pat McCrory (R-NC), the most vulnerable governor in the country

Last week we did a rundown of the top Senate races in the country for 2016, so it seems more than appropriate to do a similar take on the governor's races.  While the governor's races aren't nearly as prominent in 2015 and 2016 (most states had their elections in 2014), there are a few states that will be holding extremely competitive-looking contests come this and next November.  We'll go through the Top 5 below!

Honorable Mention: I'm still waiting for races to form in Montana, New Hampshire, and Oregon.  All three have Democratic incumbents that could potentially be vulnerable, but they don't quite feel competitive yet. Steve Bullock in Montana is a Democrat in a red state, which was toxic in 2014 but might not be in 2016 and his top potential opponent, Attorney General Timothy Fox, declined the race.  Maggie Hassan may well run for the Senate in New Hampshire, opening up the governor's mansion in a swing state, but she could also run for reelection in which case that race won't be competitive at all.  And Gov. Kate Brown recently took over in Oregon after John Kitzhaber resigned, so even though the state is pretty damn blue it's wait-and-see on how she does since she's never won the office in her own-right.  Until the dynamics in these races change, however, I'm leaving them off the list.

5. Indiana

Gov. Mike Pence (R) got into some massive hot water recently with news of a religious rights bill that he stood behind that is perceived as anti-LGBT, and potentially doing a number on the business community in the state.  Companies such as Angie's List and the NCAA have withdrawn or considered withdrawing expansions into the state, which could do a number on the governor's approval ratings, which until this scandal were pretty solid (unemployment in the Hoosier State remains in the Top 20 highest across-the-country, so loss of job expansions would be a thorny subject).  It appears likely that former Indiana House Speaker John Gregg, who came very close to besting Pence in 2012, will get a rematch against the governor next year.  There's also potential for Pence to skip the governor's race and run for president, but these rumors have started to die down in the past month.

Matt Bevin (R-KY)

4. Kentucky

The only race on this list that will be happening in 2015 rather than 2016, this is one of several races that the Democrats will have to hold to not see their already anemic governor's seat count dwindle.  Gov. Steve Beshear (D) is term-limited, and it appears to be a cleared field for the Democrats around Attorney General Jack Conway, who is making what may be his last stand at higher-office after several failed attempts to enter Congress.  Republicans have a pretty second-tier primary waging, with Agricultural Commissioner James Comer and 2014 Senate challenger Matt Bevin representing the establishment and the Tea Party, respectively.  Conway leads in most polling, but this will be a tight race regardless, because as we witnessed in places like Arkansas and Georgia last year, the South is not fond of electing Democrats statewide anymore.

3. North Carolina

Though, I suppose, there are exceptions.  The most vulnerable Republican governor up for reelection in 2016 is certainly Gov. Pat McCrory, who won this state in 2012 by a solid margin though he faced a second-tier challenger.  Since then his approval ratings have been sketchy (though they are better now than they were two years ago) and that makes Democrats think they could have an opening with Attorney General Roy Cooper.  Cooper is certainly the best candidate the Democrats could come up with here, and polling so far is close-McCrory is leading, but not by much and no polling shows him at 50%.  This is the only state on this list that is considered a presidential swing state, so expect a lot to depend on how the national candidates are running in this state-if one side is in the lead, that side will probably win this seat.

Attorney General Chris Koster (D-MO)

2. Missouri

The death of State Auditor Tom Schweich, once a frontrunner for the nomination here, has overshadowed what is expected to be an extremely competitive race to succeed term-limited (and unpopular) Gov. Jay Nixon.  The Democrats and Republicans both seem to have their candidates, with Attorney General Chris Koster (D) and House Speaker Catherine Hanaway at the top of the heap for the candidates.  This race probably starts out favoring the Republicans considering what the Show-Me State's politics have done in recent years and Jay Nixon's unpopular reactions to the events in Ferguson, but Hanaway doesn't have the statewide experience that Koster does and is still an unproven candidate.

1. West Virginia

After 2014's massacre of Democrats in the Mountain State, this starts out as the Republicans' to lose considering that Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is term-limited.  Perhaps the best shot the Democrats have is through Sen. Joe Manchin, who is still exploring a run for the seat after frustration in Washington.  Considering the dearth of Republican contenders (most candidates seem to be far-fetched, like Reps. David McKinley and Evan Jenkins, or Olympic gymnast Mary Lou Retton), Manchin could probably stampede through to win a non-federal race, though he'd surely be sacrificing his seat in 2018 (he's the only candidate in the state who could possibly win for the left), but if he doesn't run the lack of serious Democrats remaining in the state would seal this as a GOP pickup.