A Look at Sunday's Closest Oscar Races

First DGA...next Oscar?

With the Oscars just days away, certain categories seem to be in the bag.  Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore had better have prepared something not only for the podium, but to answer inane questions for hours afterwards and to have their dresses on the covers of People Magazine and every tabloid website in the country (luckily they'll have an Oscar in hand as a solid accessory).  However, there are still a few categories that are left undecided headed into the evening where a clear frontrunner hasn't emerged.  I figured that it would be time to have a little rehash of where these are, in case you're having trouble with your scorecard.  Below are the six categories that I think are the toughest to call at this point in the race.

Best Picture/Director

It's rare that it happens, but on occasion we get a true scorcher in the Best Picture race, which is what is happening this year.  While Boyhood started out strong in the year, it's undeniable that Birdman has all of the momentum at this point in the race.  Both films are guaranteed at least one Oscar elsewhere (Birdman in Cinematography, Boyhood in Supporting Actress), so there's no worry about them not going home with a trophy.  My gut is telling me that Birdman is going to win Best Picture and possibly both, as it's a film about Hollywood and has a slightly more traditional story for Oscar, but either one could take either trophy and there could well be our first split three years in a row at the Oscars (Argo/Life of Pi and 12 Years a Slave/Gravity being the other two in past years).  I honestly could see, considering both are very good movies, that the majority of people split their ballots, but unlike in the past two years there isn't an obvious frontrunner for one over the other, so splitting may result in one film winning in both categories.  And there's always the possibility that something like 2002 happens and a stealth contender sneaks in one of the categories and surprises thanks to the split (perhaps American Sniper in Best Picture or Wes Anderson in Best Director?).  Either way, flipping a coin is probably the best way to fill out this ballot.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I'm still highly confused as to what makes Whiplash an adapted screenplay, but I'll let it slide for now (we're coming back to that though when we do the OVP for this year).  Either way, pundits keep insisting the film is a bigger threat than it appears.  I am skeptical, but also I'm not talking with Academy members daily so I will give them a bit of a leash with this (and several other) categories.  My gut says that The Imitation Game, Harvey's pet this year, will take this trophy as perhaps its sole win, but if there's more strength for Whiplash or American Sniper than expected it could well show up in this field.

Best Film Editing

The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game, thank you for playing.  American Sniper is always a threat (that Box Office for a film like this has to have Hollywood paying attention-expect a lot more conservative-minded prestige films to pop-up in the near future, especially if it gets Oscar success as well).    However, I think this is a fight between Whiplash and Boyhood.  Whiplash is more traditionally-edited, an acting duet with lots of close-ups and storytelling through editing.  Boyhood, on the other hand, is less showy on paper but likely impressive to those in the know considering that it creates a coherent narrative over twelve years of filming.  Perhaps in no other category will the Academy's respect for Richard Linklater's patience be more tested than in this field.  My money is that Boyhood ends up with this trophy, but honestly I might change my mind to Whiplash in the next 48 hours or so.

Best Score

The great question here is whether the Academy is aware that Alexandre Desplat, the hardest working man in movie music, is an eight-time Oscar nominee that still is without a trophy.  If that's the case, I suspect that the surging technical support for The Grand Budapest Hotel may well carry the day.  However, he still is splitting his votes with another Best Picture nominee in The Imitation Game, and this category is exceedingly kind to first-time nominees (if they can somehow manage to get nominated), so Johann Johannsson's The Theory of Everything citation is definitely something to keep an eye upon.  After all, it's also a Best Picture nominee, it's a very Academy-friendly score, and he doesn't have to compete against himself (plus, for what it's worth, he won the Golden Globe).  Despite helming half the movies of 2014, Desplat may well go home empty-handed again (luckily he's got prestige films starring Salma Hayek, Meryl Streep, and Michael Fassbender out next year, so he'll probably be back).

Best Sound Mixing

The last of the three "the Academy knows they're already honoring Whiplash in Best Supporting Actor, right?" categories, Sound Mixing is the biggest test of strength between the drumming drama and Clint Eastwood's war film.  It would normally be expected that American Sniper would be taking this trophy-after all, it's a war film, has perhaps the "most" sound, and it has that nice juxtaposition of real-world with the world of the battlefield.  However, if American Sniper's politics get in the way of its trophies, this is the category where it will feel it, since Whiplash with its cacophony of beats and horns, is a showy contender that wouldn't look like too much of a slap-in-the-face to Clint Eastwood (Sniper will almost assuredly win in Sound Editing, where the competition is less intense).  This category puts Whiplash in a weird position of having perhaps the biggest range of Oscars it could realistically win on Sunday (anywhere from 1-4).

And those are the categories that are keeping me up at night-who do you think will win them?  And what other categories feel up in the air?  Share your thoughts in the comments!