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| Jonah made it last year without HFPA or SAG... who will do it this year? |
And yet, each year there is always at least one candidate that manages to sail on through and grab a nomination without a public blessing from SAG or the HFPA. In the past ten years, only one year (2006) didn't end up choosing an entirely new name to add to the festivities. Below are a list of the candidates that were new to the night in their years:
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emannuelle Riva, Jacki Weaver
2011: Gary Oldman and Max von Sydow
2010: Javier Bardem
2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal
2008: Michael Shannon
2007: Laura Linney and Tommy Lee Jones
2006: Zero (let's pay attention people-we've already been over this)
2005: William Hurt
2004: Alan Alda and Clint Eastwood
As you can see, it helps a LOT to be in a film that people are already watching. Over half of these people were in Best Picture nominees, and Tommy Lee Jones is the only contender that was his film's sole nomination (and lest we forget, he was headlining the Best Picture winner that year), so keep that in mind if you're, say, cheering for someone like Hilary Swank to still make the cut.
As this is an Oscar-oriented site, I figured it would be worthwhile to investigate which performances this year are most likely to make this list. Below you will find the Top 10 performances ignored by HFPA and SAG that may still wind up with an Oscar nomination:
For Her: Woodley has had a major blockbuster moment this year, and that's impossible to deny. On the heels of kicking off a new franchise with Divergent, she somehow made an even MORE successful hit with The Fault in Our Stars. The Best Actress field is starting to close, but not so much that the door is shut, and Hollywood has clearly noticed that they got a new movie star this year. They may want to reward that on their ballots. Plus, a character with cancer is always a strong hook with Oscar.
Against Her: Woodley should have been able to score at the Globes. Her newfound fame and red carpet looks are surely something that HFPA would latch onto before AMPAS, and this film already has some major debits (summer film, going for a sole nomination, teen drama). She needed her name to be a bit more prominent in the game before the year began (in a similar way that Aniston needed to have some precursor love to stay in the conversation).
9. Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
For Him: I'm not counting if you received a BFCA nomination for two reasons for the purposes of this article. One, because they have six-wide fields and that's just cheating, and two, the BFCA's irk me something fierce (they always talk about how much they "predict" the Oscars rather than honoring a specific film or actor for their work-we have hundreds of Oscar pundits, if you have your own televised awards show, you should have your own opinions and not give a damn about the Oscars). This is all to say that I'm aware Brolin made a big jump in the conversation with a BFCA (or Critics Choice, if you would) nomination, and that's part of why I'm featuring him here. The other part is that despite the lack of buzz this film has attracted, Brolin has been on everyone's favorite list from the cast, and as a former Oscar nominee, he's not that much of a stretch to make it without too much press.
Against Him: This race looks very set, and when that happens, cracks in the wall usually happen by way of a Best Picture frontrunner, which Inherent Vice decidedly is not. Brolin also has missed just as often as he was nominated with Oscar-his only nomination was the one that they "had" to give him for Milk and not something optional like No Country for Old Men.
For Her: It's hard to imagine anyone seeing Nightcrawler for Gyllenhaal and not coming out equally as impressed with Russo. There's some precedent here-Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, for example, or Toni Collette in The Sixth Sense. You come for one performance and decide to put two on your ballot. The big name of the game with these sorts of citations is that you have to be seen, and Russo will be. Plus, Oscar loves a comeback and after years of random wallpaper roles like Thor's mom, Russo is clearly having a moment.
Against Her: If Jake is scoring everywhere, why isn't she? How is it that Tilda Swinton, for example, managed the sixth BFCA slot for a very autre-film when the prediction-loving body may have gone with something a bit more likely such as Russo? Keep in mind every year we have random supporting performances in major films that inexplicably get no traction, despite being superb (see Sarah Paulson last year).
7. Tim Roth (Selma)
For Him: Speaking of comebacks, Roth, a veteran character actor, managed to nab a nomination 19 years ago for Rob Roy, but hasn't been back since. This year he plays a villain (great for supporting actor) and a real-life person (Gov. George Wallace), both of which could make him a stealth nominee if Selma continues to grab heat.
Against Him: I mean, all of these people have trouble because they don't have enough precursor love, but with Roth it means something more because there's less room to up-jump his costar Tom Wilkinson, who has a bigger part and a more recent history with Oscar.
For Him: It helps that AMPAS clearly adores him (back-to-back nominations), and though the Best Actor field is likely a six-man race, it's a pretty even six-man race, which means that there could be a candidate that's just barely missing like Cooper. If he gets an uptick in Clint support from the Academy (they do love them some Mr. Eastwood), I wouldn't be stunned if he's that candidate.
Against Him: American Sniper hasn't registered at all this awards season (the NBR doesn't count), and critics haven't been rallying around it (have critics even seen the movie?!?). Could this be another J Edgar (and even that film managed precursors)?
5. Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
For Him: The other stealth Best Actor nominee, Spall has done well this season. He scored a major prize at Cannes and followed it with a significant prize at the NYFCC Awards, which are historically very strong at predicting Oscar nominees. Once-upon-a-time Mike Leigh had the magic touch with getting Oscar nominations for his performers. If this film is gaining (my predictions indicate that it might be), this isn't out of the question.
Against Him: Leigh has never been good at getting nominations for his male actors (he's never actually done it-not even with Jim Broadbent in Topsy-Turvy) and the NYFCC is hardly a strong benchmark when you realize that last year's winner was Robert Redford.
For Her: She's clearly beloved (did you see that Hollywood Reporter interview-it was just a giant Laura Dern love-in), and this is the sort of role that Hollywood notices (woman dying of cancer, inspiring her daughter-I mean, come on). She's been working the circuit hard, and it'd be a nice recognition for both her incredible post-Rambling Rose career and her dad's recent resurgence.
Against Her: Why didn't she get in with the Globes, and in general-what is up with the reaction to Wild? Is it frustration that no one can actually watch the movie? Is it the odd prejudice that awards bodies have to female-driven stories? Or is it just that after Into the Wild and 127 Hours that voters are tired of seeing beautiful people traipse through the wilderness? Whatever the reason, Dern clearly isn't striking the chord she thought she would.
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
For Her: The BFCA is getting name-checked more in this article than it has been in years on this blog, but let's not forget that when the field went six-wide, she was the one that benefited. Cotillard has been on a roll all year, with two major films in tow and this is a critically-acclaimed film. The pundits seem to be rallying for her, and there's a lot of support there. And let's face it here-she's due for a second nomination after all of the strong work she's done since La Vie en Rose (arguably stronger than that initial role!).
Against Her: It's hard to make it for foreign films (she knows this more than anyone) and for some reason (the Cate Blanchett curse?) she hasn't been able to score since her win. Plus, this year she has The Immigrant potentially taking away crucial votes from herself, which may matter in a tight race.
For Her: Ejogo isn't a household name, but she's playing one. Coretta Scott King, as a long-suffering wife of a hero, is the exact sort of role that the Oscars usually gravitate toward in Supporting Actress. You could hardly describe Jessica Chastain as particularly safe, and if the Academy responds well to Selma (this appears to be the most important question of Oscar season right now, doesn't it-what does AMPAS think of Selma?) she could make it via Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook.
Against Her: She's not a household name-will people remember her without a stronger push? Plus, from what I've heard this isn't a particularly meaty part (though that hasn't stopped them before...see also Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook).
1. Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
For Him: Playing a real-life person? Check. Meaty role in a Best Picture frontrunner? Check. Former nominee that hasn't won yet, but is clearly recognizable for AMPAS voters? Check (twice-2001 and 2007). Category that is perceived as weak due to the winner being a foregone conclusion so someone could sneak in at the last minute? Check. Clearly there's a reason I put Wilkinson at Number One.
Against Him: About the only thing going against Wilkinson is that he's missed with SAG and the Globes (particularly with the Globes, since they saw Selma) and that he's battling some very popular former nominees in Mark Ruffalo and Robert Duvall. Otherwise, I'd say this is easily the most likely of these ten to make it, and could well be considered a favorite depending on how Duvall's chances in particular play out.
And those are the ten-what do you think? Who has the best chances of the ten? Do you agree with the lineup or should someone like Tilda Swinton or Hilary Swank still be in the conversation? Share your thoughts in the comments!
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