Golden Globe Predictions

This Thursday one of the precursor awards that you’ve actually heard of, the Golden Globes, will be announcing their nominations amidst one of the most competitive races I’ve seen in years for the Oscars.  Granted, that competitiveness could quickly disappear if some categories rally behind a frontrunner (already JK Simmons seems set to win every award known to man, and Richard Linklater may soon follow).  However, in the meantime, it’s always fun to take a stab at the wild and crazy HFPA and, if nothing else, what they consider a comedy this year (such as the hilarious My Week with Marilyn a few years back).  You know the drill, here’s my guesses:

Best Film Drama (most likely to least likely in the ranking)

1. Boyhood

2. The Imitation Game

3. Unbroken

4. The Theory of Everything

5. Gone Girl

The Globes usually cut at least one major future contender when they’re assembling the drama list, and are less prone to give it to very American-centered films (such as Crash getting skipped a few years back), and with the late release date my gut is telling me that Selma, one of the Best Picture frontrunners, may suffer from not having enough momentum when ballots actually went out.  Unbroken may be slipping, but a giant multi-continent epic seems very much up the Globes’ ally, and though Foxcatcher (sturdy, serious drama) or American Sniper (Clint is always an attraction here) could also factor, I’m thinking that the populist aspect of Gone Girl (plus the likelihood that Ben Affleck will show up) will help it get the final nomination.

Best Film Comedy/Musical

1. Birdman

2. Into the Woods

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Inherent Vice

5. Begin Again

Part of me wants to put the wonderful Pride in here, and honestly the Globes occasionally go very British, so I wouldn’t put it past them, but the music of Begin Again (they are a lot more likely to nominate a musical all things being equal) and the potential prestige of Inherent Vice should probably keep both just above Pride (a lot of pundits are predicting St. Vincent or Big Eyes, but I’m just not seeing it at this point in the game).

Best Actor (Drama)

1. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

3. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

4. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

5. David Oyelowo (Selma)

I’m honestly having a lot of trouble deciding just how far in they’ll go for Selma and Unbroken.  It’s very possible that Jack O’Connell could substitute in for Oyelowo (Selma will gain a bit more steam with the guild awards, in my opinion), but Oyelowo may well win the Oscar, so I can’t quite go against him here.  Bradley Cooper is just a hunch-they love a celebrity in this category, and if Clint’s film is going to catch on anywhere it’ll be the Globes.  There’s always Ben Affleck as well, though they didn’t go for him for Argo so probably not.

Best Actress (Drama)

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

2. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

3. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

4. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

5. Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)

The Globes aren’t particularly shy about nominating teenage-level roles, and have gone with Woodley in the past; plus, they’ll want in on one of the year’s biggest stars.  However, this could be a HUGE leg-up for Hilary Swank, Jennifer Aniston, or Marion Cotillard if they can actually make the cut, as the Musical/Comedy list doesn’t have a lot of winners on it, and Woodley is unlikely to go the distance to the Dolby.

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)

2. Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

3. Bill Murray (St. Vincent)

4. Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)

5. Mark Ruffalo (Begin Again)

If the buzz for Chris Rock in Top 5 were a couple of weeks earlier I’d probably buy into the hype around his film, but that seemed to happen when the ballots were already due so I’m going to go with Begin Again’s Ruffalo (it could have been James Corden, but he doesn’t feel quite famous enough) who has the benefit of being a male lead in a musical, as well as a respected actor who will look good on-paper for the Globes (he could well score three nods with The Normal Heart and Foxcatcher on the table).  No matter which of them gets in, everyone’s just competing to lose to Michael Keaton at this point.

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

1. Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)

2. Amy Adams (Big Eyes)

3. Angelina Jolie (Maleficent)

4. Keira Knightley (Begin Again)

5. Helen Mirren (The Hundred-Foot Journey)

There are names like Julianne Moore, Kristen Wiig, and Jenny Slate that may make slightly more sense considering critical consensus, but when a category is weak the Globes like their favorites, and that’s what Helen Mirren is.  This race is probably one of the most important in terms of who actually wins-if Blunt can take this, can she make a play for the very open fifth slot in Best Actress (this is particularly important if it’s Woodley and not the more competitive Aniston/Swank/Cotillard trifecta in the fifth drama slot), and if it’s Adams, can she do the same (though it feels like Adams, who won this award last year, probably needs it less)?

Best Supporting Actor

1. JK Simmons (Whiplash)

2. Edward Norton (Birdman)

3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

5. Johnny Depp (Into the Woods)

You’ve occasionally got to take the crazy pill when it comes to the Globes, and though Tom Wilkinson, Robert Duvall, and Josh Brolin certainly have better chances at the Oscars, I’m going to assume that the celebrity-loving Globes will want to throw a bone to one of their absolute favorites (he’s been nominated an astounding ten times in his career by HFPA) and Johnny Depp gets the very competitive fifth slot here (I’m sort of hoping for this in fact, as it will keep this category from being dully lockstep, which I think it would be if Wilkinson in particular were to get the fifth nomination).

Best Supporting Actress

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

2. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

3. Emma Stone (Birdman)

4. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

5. Laura Dern (Wild)

By most counts there are six women competing for five slots here (and considering it’s the Globes, I wouldn’t put it past them to figure out a way to get all six nominated).  I am currently feeling Chastain, whose film I’m really missing in terms of nominations, will be the odd-lady out, though I suspect that she may return later in the season (perhaps she’s this year’s no-precursors, but I made it to the Oscars nominee).  It’s also worth noting that if Kristen Stewart is going to randomly insert herself in the Oscar conversation with Still Alice, this would be the PERFECT time.

Best Film Director

1. Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

3. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

4. David Fincher (Gone Girl)

5. Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)

The Globes love their stars, and that’s true even in Best Director, which is why if Angelina is going to win a prize this season, it’s almost certain to come here.  Nominations for Morton Tyldum or Ava DuVernay would indicate really strong across the board support for their films, but that doesn't meld with my other predictions so I'm leaving them off, and Bennett Miller/Christopher Nolan have too many deficits to make it.  Therefore I’m going with the risky prediction of Clint in American Sniper, a film that I’m either under or over-estimating here (it could well be the final Best Drama slot, or it could go home empty-handed), but feels right for fifth place.

Best Animated Feature

1. The Lego Movie

2. Big Hero 6

3. How to Train Your Dragon 2

4. The Book of Life

5. The Boxtrolls

The Tale of Princess Kaguya will certainly displace at least one of these (likely The Book of Life) with AMPAS, but the Globes, for all their international flavor, don’t go foreign language in this category with any regularity, and so I’m doing an entirely English-language rundown of the nominations.  The Lego Movie continues to show strength, and a win here may cement it for a victory come the Oscars.

Best Screenplay

1. Boyhood

2. Birdman

3. Gone Girl

4. Unbroken

5. The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game, American Sniper, and Foxcatcher all have some momentum so that they could have a bit of a coattail effect and grab a citation here, but I’m going with the biggest films I have predicted for now.  This well could be the category where they reward Boyhood with an award if they pick Jolie in Director, since it would honor Linklater as well.

Foreign Language Film

1. Ida

2. Two Days, One Night

3. Mommy

4. Winter Sleep

5. Clouds of Sils Maria

The Globes don't quite go under the same rules as the Oscars (they can nominate multiple films from a certain country, and even can go with American productions, and frequently include at least one film that wasn't an Oscar-submitted picture), so I'm going with Clouds of Sils Maria, which stars three big name actresses (Juliette Binoche, Kristen Stewart, and Chloe Moretz) even though Switzerland didn't select it as their AMPAS entry.  This is because the Globes are generally more populist than the Oscars when it comes to this category, and because they love to get the stars to show up.

Score

1. Unbroken

2. Interstellar

3. The Imitation Game

4. Gone Girl

5. Birdman

This category is SO frequently a crapshoot with the Globes.  Sometimes they like the big name composers, other times they just want a brand new slate of nominees.  For now I'm going with the former, with Alexandre Desplat and Hans Zimmer taking up the first three spots.  

Song

1. "Lost Stars," Begin Again

2. "Glory," Selma

3. "Miracles," Unbroken

4. "Grateful," Beyond the Lights

5. "Ordinary Love," The Giver

The Globes love their rock stars, so it makes sense to keep John Legend, Coldplay, and OneRepublic in the same mix as perennial nominee Diane Warren and likely Oscar frontrunner "Lost Stars."

And there you have it-my Golden Globe predictions!  What do you think-am I right, or am I horribly wrong?  And who are you hoping to hear announced on Thursday?  Sound off in the comments!