Earlier, we went through a list of the Democrats that I thought had absolutely no business ever running for elected office again. Their losses this year were too much,
and in some cases were unforgivable.
This list is a list of the Democrats that I think should completely run
again, at least a few of them.
I’m going to break this into two groups. The first group get my unequivocal
support for another shot at public office. Despite their losses, they ran admirable campaigns and
should be given a second shot at office.
The second group I’m throwing out some caveats with: I like some of what
I saw, or I saw promise there, but I need to see a certain change in their
approach before I give the thumbs again.
Let’s start with the six candidates I think should definitely run again…
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| Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter with President Bill Clinton |
Georgia gave the Democrats this year a sharp kick in the
shins. The polls were definitely
Democrat-skewing, and the races by both Nunn and Carter seemed on-paper to be
close, even if they didn't show that on Election Day. That being said, this
is a state with a lot of promise (it’s clearly trending Democratic, at least in the census), but not a lot of bench, and both Carter and Nunn ran very strong campaigns. Nunn has a shot at an open Senate seat
in 2016 if Johnny Isakson retires in two years, and would be greatly aided by
having Hillary Clinton at the top of the ballot. Jason Carter will have a shot at an open gubernatorial seat
in four years, and as Charlie Baker illustrated this cycle, that might make the
difference. I think both of these
two should give it a shot again.
Pete Gallego
One of the stunners of Election Night was Pete Gallego
losing to Will Hurd in Texas's 23rd. Gallego is quite personally popular in this
Republican-leaning seat, and may benefit from stronger Hispanic vote in two years
with a presidential election.
Additionally, this is a rough district for the Democrats, and Gallego is
a proven vote-getter. I’m not a
major fan of rematches, but I think Gallego has enough going for him that he
could turn the tables in 2016.
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| Amanda Renteria (D-CA) |
Renteria suffered one of the bigger blowouts of the cycle,
and I almost didn’t add her to this race, but then I remembered Melissa
Bean. Bean, a former congresswoman
from Illinois managed to turn a low-40’s performance in 2002 into a winning
performance two years later in a presidential election. Renteria will have the advantage in
2016 of strong Hispanic support in a seat that is 71% Hispanic, and should gain
with stronger turnout in California due to the presidential race. Plus, this seat favored President Obama
by 11 points in 2012. If the
Democrats want to start rebuilding after this year’s awful losses, seats like this are mandatory.
Emily Cain
Cain has long been a rising star in the Democratic Party. She's done everything correctly on her rise to the top (State House, State Senate, run for an open House seat), and at 34 is very early on in her career. Cain's loss to Bruce Poliquin, admittedly, was rough, but with Paul LePage winning by a surprisingly robust margin statewide (and Susan Collins dominating), this may be forgiven in 2016 when Hillary Clinton will likely be winning this seat. Cain has been too groomed for further statewide office for the Democrats to throw her out based on a bad midterm. I suggest that she, like Gallego, Renteria, and the next guy on this list, get another chance in 2016. Cain is particularly important because, as I keep pointing out, the Democrats have a bench problem across the country, and that's going to become extremely important in future years: Angus King is 70-years-old and won't be in the Senate indefinitely, Paul LePage has to give up the governor's mansion in 2018, and with the increasingly partisan, lock-step voting pattern of politics, even Susan Collins could be vulnerable by 2020 in a presidential year (provided Maine stays blue). Plus, let's be honest here-we need some candidates under forty to start taking the step up the ladder so that twenty years from now we have some presidential options and don't just have to beg Chelsea to run. All that is to say that we need someone like Cain in a position to strike when one of these seats opens up.
Kevin Strouse
The young United States Army Ranger from Pennsylvania is the sort of blue chip recruit that would have worked two years ago (politicians occasionally have bad timing), and should work in two years. Two things are going in Strouse's favor: A) Hillary Clinton being on top of the ticket should help Democrats in particular in Pennsylvania, a state she won convincingly in the 2008 primaries despite the race largely being over for her at the time and B) Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick has already announced he won't run for another term, meaning that Strouse will be running for an open seat, giving him a leg-up. Pennsylvania, like Maine and Georgia, is dying for a better bench for future statewide contests (look at the options we have for the Senate seat in two years)-Strouse could help build that bench.
And here's where things get a little more interesting. There are five more candidates who I think could have potential futures in their states, possibly running for higher office down the road, but their campaign skills need improvement or they need to focus on a different office for a while. So these five don't make the "never run again" pile, but I do want to add a caveat for all of them.
Alison Lundergan Grimes
Grimes proved on the campaign trail this past year two things. One, she has star charisma. This is someone who is magnetic when she wants to be-the commercials were generally solid, she got an enormous amount of backing from national Democrats, and though her views on the environment hold her up in terms of national backing (no Democrat could win a presidential primary with that sort of record), she's still very young and her views may shift as coal becomes less a part of Kentucky's economy (sorry, it's going to happen inevitably-they might as well start realizing it and embracing a more forward-thinking technology). That said, her campaign was too full of trepidation. The rollout, the Obama presidency questions-these were rookie mistakes, and unacceptable in such a race. She should make sure she can hold onto her current position in 2015 first (something Josh Mandel smartly did this year), and then try for another seat in 2016 or 2020 (when the next two Senate races will occur). I still think she could be a major asset to the party, though.
Kay Hagan
Grimes endorsement comes pretty unilaterally-clean up the campaign, and I think we're set. The following four, however, have an expiration date on the endorsement. Kay Hagan has clearly proven to be a major and attractive fundraiser. She came very close in a very rough year for the party. Two years from now, there's a decent chance that Sen. Richard Burr will retire despite his current protestations, and this is Hagan's one shot to get back into public office, in my humbled opinion. As Stephanie Herseth proved this cycle, there's a short window on your moment in the sun and if you don't take it, you're screwed (poor Stephanie Herseth, constant target of my condemnation for not running this year-I'm going to have so much egg on my face in 2018 if she randomly becomes governor). Hagan has an entire party mourning her loss in particular this year, and she has so much more going for her in 2016. She'll have an unpopular governor on the ballot for the GOP (Pat McCrory), with a very credible Democrat running against him (Attorney General Roy Moore), and most importantly, she will have Hillary Clinton trying everything in her power to deliver a swing state that should in theory work more in her favor than Barack Obama's. Two Democrats theoretically winning statewide could lend credence to a third-Hagan should get out in front of that quickly. If she doesn't run in 2016, however, I have doubts that she'll be able to maintain enough of a presence or the bench in the state will remain slim enough for her to take advantage of a rematch in 2020. Now's the time.
Paul Davis
Cain has long been a rising star in the Democratic Party. She's done everything correctly on her rise to the top (State House, State Senate, run for an open House seat), and at 34 is very early on in her career. Cain's loss to Bruce Poliquin, admittedly, was rough, but with Paul LePage winning by a surprisingly robust margin statewide (and Susan Collins dominating), this may be forgiven in 2016 when Hillary Clinton will likely be winning this seat. Cain has been too groomed for further statewide office for the Democrats to throw her out based on a bad midterm. I suggest that she, like Gallego, Renteria, and the next guy on this list, get another chance in 2016. Cain is particularly important because, as I keep pointing out, the Democrats have a bench problem across the country, and that's going to become extremely important in future years: Angus King is 70-years-old and won't be in the Senate indefinitely, Paul LePage has to give up the governor's mansion in 2018, and with the increasingly partisan, lock-step voting pattern of politics, even Susan Collins could be vulnerable by 2020 in a presidential year (provided Maine stays blue). Plus, let's be honest here-we need some candidates under forty to start taking the step up the ladder so that twenty years from now we have some presidential options and don't just have to beg Chelsea to run. All that is to say that we need someone like Cain in a position to strike when one of these seats opens up.
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| Kevin Strouse (D-PA) |
The young United States Army Ranger from Pennsylvania is the sort of blue chip recruit that would have worked two years ago (politicians occasionally have bad timing), and should work in two years. Two things are going in Strouse's favor: A) Hillary Clinton being on top of the ticket should help Democrats in particular in Pennsylvania, a state she won convincingly in the 2008 primaries despite the race largely being over for her at the time and B) Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick has already announced he won't run for another term, meaning that Strouse will be running for an open seat, giving him a leg-up. Pennsylvania, like Maine and Georgia, is dying for a better bench for future statewide contests (look at the options we have for the Senate seat in two years)-Strouse could help build that bench.
And here's where things get a little more interesting. There are five more candidates who I think could have potential futures in their states, possibly running for higher office down the road, but their campaign skills need improvement or they need to focus on a different office for a while. So these five don't make the "never run again" pile, but I do want to add a caveat for all of them.
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| Sec. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) |
Grimes proved on the campaign trail this past year two things. One, she has star charisma. This is someone who is magnetic when she wants to be-the commercials were generally solid, she got an enormous amount of backing from national Democrats, and though her views on the environment hold her up in terms of national backing (no Democrat could win a presidential primary with that sort of record), she's still very young and her views may shift as coal becomes less a part of Kentucky's economy (sorry, it's going to happen inevitably-they might as well start realizing it and embracing a more forward-thinking technology). That said, her campaign was too full of trepidation. The rollout, the Obama presidency questions-these were rookie mistakes, and unacceptable in such a race. She should make sure she can hold onto her current position in 2015 first (something Josh Mandel smartly did this year), and then try for another seat in 2016 or 2020 (when the next two Senate races will occur). I still think she could be a major asset to the party, though.
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| Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) |
Grimes endorsement comes pretty unilaterally-clean up the campaign, and I think we're set. The following four, however, have an expiration date on the endorsement. Kay Hagan has clearly proven to be a major and attractive fundraiser. She came very close in a very rough year for the party. Two years from now, there's a decent chance that Sen. Richard Burr will retire despite his current protestations, and this is Hagan's one shot to get back into public office, in my humbled opinion. As Stephanie Herseth proved this cycle, there's a short window on your moment in the sun and if you don't take it, you're screwed (poor Stephanie Herseth, constant target of my condemnation for not running this year-I'm going to have so much egg on my face in 2018 if she randomly becomes governor). Hagan has an entire party mourning her loss in particular this year, and she has so much more going for her in 2016. She'll have an unpopular governor on the ballot for the GOP (Pat McCrory), with a very credible Democrat running against him (Attorney General Roy Moore), and most importantly, she will have Hillary Clinton trying everything in her power to deliver a swing state that should in theory work more in her favor than Barack Obama's. Two Democrats theoretically winning statewide could lend credence to a third-Hagan should get out in front of that quickly. If she doesn't run in 2016, however, I have doubts that she'll be able to maintain enough of a presence or the bench in the state will remain slim enough for her to take advantage of a rematch in 2020. Now's the time.
Wendy Davis
Wendy Davis ran one of the worst campaigns of 2014, and by all accounts shouldn't be anywhere near this list. I would never recommend her to run statewide again, but it's worth noting that she still has star charisma and a liberal base that adores her. The only way I think I could see her returning to public office would be through a House seat. Her Forth Worth home base is near enough Rep. Marc Veasey's House district that if Veasey retired, she wouldn't be a bad choice to take him on. This is the only way I could see her running though, as I think she's gone too far to the left to be a serious contender in a seat that isn't solid blue. That said, if she could get into the House, she'd be a solid fundraiser for the DCCC and could be a great asset to the caucus.
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| Paul Davis (D-KS) |
Paul Davis had everything going for him that he could, with the exception of the national wave, and even that didn't wash over Kansas the way it should have. The reality is that 2014 was probably Paul Davis's best shot to win the Kansas governorship, and he blew it. However, on occasion candidates do better when they're in an open seat (see also Charlie Baker) and if Brownback's second term is equally a disaster, it would give Davis an opening to say we've tried eight years of a Republican, it's time to give a Democrat a chance to clean up the mess, and perhaps it should be the Democrat that you should have gone with four years ago. Davis is toast if Brownback's second term goes better, but if it is an abject failure, buyer's remorse may work for Davis in a way that Mitt Romney is clearly hoping it will work for him.
Connie Pillich
Pillich got dealt perhaps the worst hand in politics this year of any politician I can think of. She had a State Treasurer incumbent in Josh Mandel with low approval ratings and enough people disliking him to split their vote, and then Ed FitzGerald came along and tanked the entire Buckeye lineup, costing us not only this seat, but a future higher office candidate in the process. Pillich could make another go at State Treasurer in four years, but it's hard to see her having the same dynamics then-Mandel will have had a lot of time to cool from his failed and unfortunately reviewed run for the Senate in 2012, and the Ohio Democrats have no real bench to take on the governor's mansion in 2018. Pillich has to be particularly furious at FitzGerald, since she would have been the de facto nominee to either take on Rob Portman in 2016 or the open governor's seat in 2018 had she won. That said, she's one of the more promising Democratic options in the Buckeye State-perhaps she could make a crack at Steve Chabot in the first district?
And those are the ten people I am hoping to see again on the ballot in the future. What about you-anyone you want to add to the list? Any Republicans who should run again (hint: Ed Gillespie)? Share in the comments!
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