The State of the Senate

It’s been over a week since we’ve posted about politics, and that is about as much of a break as I can take from one of my two beloved hobbies, so I figured I’d start dipping my toes back into the game with a look at some of the most competitive Senate races of the upcoming cycle in our first “State of the Senate” for 2016.

We’ve still got a Senate race left to be decided next month in Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu is the decided underdog in a quest to get a fourth term.  For the sake of my own sanity (and common sense), we’ll assume that Sen. Landrieu loses, as polling is showing a Blanche Lincoln-style blowout.  That gives the Republicans 54 seats, so the Democrats will either need a net gain of five or a net gain of four and to hold the White House.

Normally I’d say that’s a tall order, and honestly, it is.  This isn’t going to be a particularly easy election, but the problem for the GOP is there really isn’t a lot of room to play offense.  The Democrats only hold ten seats that are up for reelection in 2016, and most of those are in extremely blue states like Oregon, Washington, California, and New York, where the incumbent party is likely to win regardless of party.  Meanwhile the GOP has a staggering 24 seats that they have to defend in 2016, including seven in states that President Obama won in 2012 and two more in states that he won in 2008.  That makes 2016 a very promising though still tough map for the Democrats.  In doing our first deep dive of the Senate seats, I want to forewarn that this will change-two years ago if you had told me that New Hampshire was going to be competitive and the Democrats would be losing Montana by twenty points, I would have called you crazy.  Things change, and the first, biggest thing that changes are retirements, so we’ll start speculating there first.

Senate Retirements

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The Democrats saw in 2014 how important Senate retirements can be to their math.  Had Tim Johnson, Tom Harkin, Max Baucus, and Jay Rockefeller stuck around for another term, there’s a decent chance the Democrats would still have the Senate-the math for their seats, at the very least, would have been a lot more complicated.  One of the biggest jobs of newly-elected NRSC Chair Roger Wicker is going to be to get as many of those 24 senators to sign up for new terms as possible.

In my humbled opinion, the two biggest retirement opportunities, however, appear to be coming from safe seats.  Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) is near certain to not be standing for reelection in 2016, as he is planning a run for governor in Louisiana.  Vitter is the frontrunner for that seat, and no major Republican or Democrat seems on-track to be taking him on for the seat.  Considering that the Democrats' best candidate in Louisiana would be either Mitch or Mary Landrieu, and both of them would go into the race as severe underdogs, I suspect that this will be a Republican hold, though which Republican is a discussion worth having (Reps. Charles Boustany, John Fleming, and Jeff Landry will all likely attempt a promotion, which could cause an even more severe vacuum in Louisiana seniority considering Mary Landrieu is near certain to lose in a few weeks).

The other candidate that appears on-track to retire is legendary liberal Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).  Her fundraising has been abysmal, which is particularly glaring in a state as expensive to campaign in as California.  However, Democrats have a gamut of contenders that could run for the seat, including Lt. Gov. Gavion Newsom, Attorney General Kamala Harris, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, and State Treasurer John Chiang.  The Republican bench continues to be pretty weak here, particularly since Nancy Pelosi keeps winning House seats and they can’t seem to win statewide, so this starts out as a solid hold opportunity, though it becomes a bit more competitive without Boxer, as the open primary in the state leaves the room that multiple Democrats will split the vote ala Pete Aguilar two years ago.

The rest of the list is more speculative.  There are a handful of senators that are “getting up there” that seem intent on running for reelection, but may decide against it in the next few months if their health doesn’t hold up or they get tired of Washington.  Amongst these are Democratic senators like Patrick Leahy (VT) and Harry Reid (NV), as well as Republican senators like John McCain (AZ), Richard Shelby (AL), Johnny Isakson (GA), and Richard Burr (NC).  It’s worth noting that most of these men have all stated that they are running again, but people change their mind later in the session so they don’t start the Congress as “lame ducks,” and we could see a few names added to the list, and almost certainly we’ll see a couple of them.

Finally, there are three senators who are entertaining presidential runs in 2016 that may be barred from running concurrently or will choose not to: Marco Rubio (FL), Rand Paul (KY), and Rob Portman (OH).  The former two are legally not allowed to run for both offices in their home states, so they would have to choose, and Portman has explicitly stated that he doesn’t want to run for both.  With the exception of Shelby’s seat, all of these senators would be in seriously competitive seats, but if the incumbents run, only a handful (namely Burr, Reid, and Portman) would be vulnerable if they ran for reelection.

Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV)

Looking at the Democratic-held seats first, Sen. Harry Reid is easily the most vulnerable seat for the Democrats, regardless of whether he runs or not.  Reid is a titan of Nevada politics, but let’s not confuse his rather strong win six years ago as being based on personal popularity, but instead based on the Republicans nominating a terrible candidate for the seat in Sharron Angle.  This year, the Republicans don’t seem likely to do the same, with Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) being at the top of their wish list.  Honestly, if Sandoval runs, I think Reid starts as the underdog once again, though Sandoval may not want to take that risk considering he could mount a presidential race in 2016 or 2020.  Republicans have a shockingly large set of contenders for the seat if Sandoval passes.  Amongst them are Reps. Mark Amodei and Joe Heck, as well as the newly-elected Lt. Governor Mark Hutchison.  Democrats would either have to rely upon a recent statewide loser like Sec. of State Ross Miller or go with someone who passed on a 2014 race like Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (likely their candidate), though if Reid doesn’t run, this is probably Sandoval’s to lose.  The Vermont seat would be less vulnerable if Sen. Leahy passed.  More than likely Rep. Peter Welch would make a play for the Senate seat if Leahy passed, though Gov. Peter Shumlin may want to extend his career beyond the governor’s mansion and make a race for the seat.  No obvious Republican springs to mind as making it competitive.

For the Republicans, two seats stand out as likely to be competitive regardless of the retirement of the incumbents, though an open seat obviously favors the Democrats.  In North Carolina, Democrats are counting on former Sen. Kay Hagan, who ran a pitch-perfect campaign but lost during a tough environment, to take advantage of a more favorable environment in 2016, when a White House bid by Hillary Clinton and unpopular Gov. Pat McCrory will be on the ballot.  I suspect that Hagan, who would have sailed to victory in 2012, will make another go at it, pushing ambitious Democrats like Sec. of Transportation Anthony Foxx and State Treasurer Janet Cowell to the back of the line.

Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH)

In Ohio, on the other hand, the Democrats don’t really have a bench.  Sen. Rob Portman may well be on the ticket in 2016, making this seat extremely competitive (it’s likely whoever wins Ohio wins the White House, and in 2016, whoever wins Ohio may win the White House AND the Senate).  Republicans who could replace Portman include State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who lost a Senate election in 2012) or Rep. Steve Stivers.  There’s also a chance that social conservatives may primary Portman, who has come out in favor of gay marriage.  On the Democratic side there is a major bench problem, with no obvious contenders, and their top choice (former Gov. Ted Strickland) adamantly refusing to run.  In my opinion they’d be better off nominating one of their former rising stars who is still young enough to regain their luster like former Rep. Betty Sutton or CFPB Bureau Director Richard Cordray.  Either of these two would be competitive, and more importantly, could be the leader the Democrats desperately need in Ohio to start rebuilding the party.

Other seats are more likely to be competitive if the seats open up.  Florida is theoretically competitive regardless (President Obama won the state twice, and Hillary Clinton will certainly be trying incredibly hard there), but Democrats have no bench.  If Marco Rubio is out, Republicans have Reps. Tom Rooney and Ron DeSantis, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam.  Democrats, on the other hand, have an extremely small list of contenders.  They could go with Reps. Ted Deutsch or Kathy Castor, though they may have too liberal of records to actually make the plunge.  Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has been rumored, though she’d be a disaster.  Rep-elect Gwen Graham will surely try for a promotion at some point, but after one-term it may be risky.  Democrats trying to get a quality candidate in the race also have the problem of Sen. Bill Nelson being likely to retire in 2018, giving them a shot at an open seat, which could deter them if Rubio is the nominee.

Arizona could potentially be open regardless of whether Sen. John McCain runs or not.  McCain is likely to be primaried from the right for his stances on a number of issues, and could be ousted in the primary.  If he doesn’t run, Reps. Matt Salmon and Trent Franks, as well as Attorney General Grant Woods spring to mind as potential successors.  On the Democratic side, Democrats have 2012 Senate nominee Richard Carmona (who did well in an open seat) and Rep. Krysten Sinema, but overall they will need a BIG push from national Democrats to make this competitive, as this state still doesn’t seem like it is competitive when it comes to the White House.

Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY)

Kentucky, as we saw in 2014, has some trouble with electing Democrats to federal office, but I suspect that a White House bid and an open seat may help the Democrats a bit here, though they’d still go in as underdogs.  Republicans have a host of House members that would probably make a play for Paul’s seat, including Andy Barr and Brett Guthrie, while the Democrats would have to rely upon statewide elected officials such as State Auditor Adam Edelen and, yes, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.  At least now she can say she’d vote for Hillary.

Democrats in Georgia would need Johnny Isakson to retire in order to make that seat competitive.  While he is protesting that he will run, it’s still early and he may still drop out, in which case Michelle Nunn is certain to be the nominee for the Democrats.  With Isakson in, however, I suspect that she’ll pass and hope for a rematch against David Perdue in six years or possibly an administration position with Hillary Clinton.  Republicans have Rep. Paul Broun and Tom Price as potential candidates for the seat if Isakson passes (or, in Broun’s case, even if he doesn’t).  In Alabama, the Democrats don’t have a prayer, but a number of candidates including former Gov. Bob Riley and Rep. Martha Roby would be toward the top of the list to succeed a retiring Sen. Shelby.

Competitive Races

In addition to the above races in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, there are several other races that look competitive even with the incumbents likely to run.  Only one of those seats seem to be in blue territory, so we’ll start there: Colorado.

Sen. Michael Bennet pulled off something of a miracle in 2010.  After being appointed seemingly out-of-the-blue by Gov. Bill Ritter in 2009, he defeated a more established Democrat in the primary and then beat the Republican despite the national winds.  This year, he’ll have the advantage of a White House bid, but as Colorado showed in 2014, it’s a difficult state to run in, and Bennet will want to avoid the mistakes of his former colleague Mark Udall.  Republicans have a number of candidates, including Rep. Mike Coffman and State Treasurer Walker Stapleton as likely competitors for the seat.

Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL)

Democrats have a few potentially competitive Senate races in Obama-won states headed into 2016.  At the top of the list is Illinois, where Sen. Mark Kirk is running as a Republican in one of the bluest states in the Union which happens to be the home state of Hillary Clinton.  I would imagine it will be a personal mission of Clinton’s to win back this seat, a must-have for the Democrats.  Democrats' dream candidate would be Attorney General Lisa Madigan, the most popular Democrat in the state, though she’s been extremely reluctant to run for higher office despite multiple opportunities, and I suspect she’s holding out for the governor’s race in 2018.  Reps. Cheri Bustos, Bill Foster, Robin Kelly, and Tammy Duckworth all are exploring this bid, and I expect at least a couple of them to make the plunge-there aren’t a lot of opportunities for ambitious Democrats in Illinois, and with Madigan probably taking their thunder in 2018, this may be their best chance for a while.

In Wisconsin, Democrats may see one of several rematches this cycle.  Sen. Russ Feingold has seemed quite intent on avenging his 2010 loss to Sen. Ron Johnson (R), and Democrats will surely be helped by the presidential turnout.  Johnson has abysmal approval ratings, and may be the most vulnerable incumbent senator up for reelection in 2016.  If Feingold takes a pass in the Badger State, Rep. Ron Kind, a candidate who has long been on lists of up-and-comers without an opportunity to move up, may finally make the plunge and run for a promotion.

New Hampshire poses a unique opportunity for the Democrats-the state swings mightily, but it might be considerably easier for the Democrats to take in a bid for the White House.  Sen. Kelly Ayotte has done relatively well in insulating herself from attack, but so did Jeanne Shaheen and we all saw how that almost turned out.  The top of the list for Democrats include two governors: incumbent Maggie Hassan or her predecessor John Lynch, both of whom would present major challenges for Ayotte.  Democrats also have Rep. Ann McLane Kuster and potentially even former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (though I’m guessing if she runs for office it will be for her old seat), though the governors would have a better shot to take on Ayotte.

Pennsylvania is a state that Hillary Clinton will spend heavily in, and as a result, Democrats will probably be lining up a strong challenge to incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R).  Toomey’s 2010 opponent former Rep. Joe Sestak is already running, though he might have potential competition from Rep. Matt Cartwright or Attorney General Kathleen Kane.

Oddities

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

There are three states that stand out to me as oddities for 2016 that are worth watching, even if at this point I don’t see them actually switching hands.

Sen. Chuck Grassley’s seat in Iowa is worth watching even after the Democrats blew it in 2014 with Joni Ernst.  Grassley is intent on running for reelection, but is one of the oldest senators in Congress, and could retire.  If he does, the Republicans have a pretty robust bench with former Rep. Tom Latham being toward the top of the list.  Democrats have Rep. Dave Loebsack and former Gov. Tom Vilsack if the seat opens up, though both took a pass in 2014 when there was a seemingly more winnable seat on the table.  If Grassley runs for reelection, he wins.

Republicans could be in for an odd primary in Alaska.  Sen. Lisa Murkowski is surely going to be primaried from the right, and even if she doesn’t go down then, she could also be vulnerable due to the large third party contingent in the state.  The problem is the Democrats likely won’t have a decent candidate to take advantage of this-Sen. Mark Begich would be their best chance, and he’s probably not up for such a campaign after a recent bitter loss.

Lastly, there’s the chance that Sen. Dan Coats passes on a fifth term in the Senate after mounting an odd comeback in 2010.  If Coats passes, there are a couple of Democrats that could be a candidate, including former Rep. Brad Ellsworth, or more interestingly, former Sen. Evan Bayh.  Bayh made a hugely panned exit from the Senate in 2010, and may not be welcomed too warmly by Washington Democrats in 2010 were he to run, though he’d go into a primary as a heavy favorite.

And those are my first thoughts on 2016’s Senate elections.  What about you-which seats seem to be the most vulnerable?  Which challenger will announce first?  Which senator will announce a surprise retirement?  Share in the comments!