Part of what the next year is going to be in American politics is a count on all of the men and women who are considering runs for the presidency. Some of the biggest names will likely turn down the opportunity, others that we haven't heard of will start the process of running, and all of them will start to test which of the 2014 messages still have water and which don't. Therefore, I think it's a good idea to see which candidates gained and which lost during the Midterm elections. First, because I've been leading so frequently with the Democrats in the past few days, let's start with the psychotically long list of Republicans that are probably going to run for President:
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| Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) |
Did he gain?: Yes
Why?: Jeb gained because his home state continues to be marginal, but there's proof with Rick Scott's victory that the Republicans can still take it, lending credence to a Jeb candidacy (who doesn't want Florida in their electoral column?). There were also some major wins by establishment Republicans this past cycle, and Jeb Bush is the most likely to coalesce those forces. And finally, thanks to the ridiculously short memories of the American people, George W. Bush isn't remotely as toxic in the public's mind as President Obama.
Why Should He Still Be Worried? Jeb reminds me in many ways of Fred Thompson in 2008-expecting a coronation when he's really getting into a bloodbath. Bush hasn't been on a ballot in over a decade, while almost every other viable candidate is still in office, and he's got some major targets on his back in terms of moderation (including immigration) that might not be able to survive a Republican primary.
Gov. Chris Christie
Did he gain?: Most definitely
Why? Christie gained because he now has an army of Republican governors he personally helped get elected. No one gained more from, say, Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan than Christie, who was fervently out campaigning for them. Christie's quarantine of Kaci Hickox is probably something that's going to play well with Republicans, and my hunch is that he'll be able to hammer Sen. Rand Paul pretty hard on it.
Why He Should Still Be Worried? Forgetting that Bridgegate is going to be brought up by every opponent that Christie ever faces and forgetting that Christie is still more moderate than the Republican Party as a whole and forgetting that he has a terrible approval rating in his home state to the point that he couldn't actually add it to his column...Chris Christie comes across as a jackass. Christie's brash, in-your-face politics may play well in New Jersey where they're used to their politicians being bruising and harsh, but in swing states like Iowa or Ohio we're more used to our Republicans looking like Chuck Grassley or Rob Portman. For all of the talk about Chris Christie being the best option for the GOP (and on-paper, he truly is), his temperament is not going to sit well with the public when wondering if they want this man representing us in foreign policy discussions, and you can bet every person he debates is going to try and bring that out of him.
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| Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) |
Did he gain?: Yes, but not in the way you think.
Why?: Ted Cruz will never be president. He's too smug, incendiary, and far to the right-it just will never, ever happen. But he can definitely become the GOP nominee, or at least shape the nominee to be someone he would approve of voting for. Cruz now gets to see the strength of the diminished Tea Party in Congress as he pushes hard for Mitch McConnell, who probably doesn't want to touch issues like repealing the ACA and bucking Loretta Lynch very quickly in the Congress so as to poison the well with moderate voters and spend his goodwill, but he's going to have to if Ted Cruz is talking about how McConnell has lost "his conservative values" every chance he gets. That bully pulpit is what Cruz gained with this election, and could take him to the GOP nomination.
Why He Should Still Be Worried?: He can't win the White House. Hillary Clinton would put states like Indiana into play if Sen. Cruz were on the ballot, only losing out on the harder right states in the South. Cruz also is seen as a gadfly by too many people-he needs to become a stronger national leader and not just the Michele Bachmann of the Senate if he wants to actually make a dent for the nomination.
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Did he gain?: No
Why?: Lindsey Graham is one of the oddest men hypothetically running for president in 2016. Graham, for starters, is most noted publicly for his moderate stances on certain issues (like judicial nominations and immigration), but in the last few years also for his foreign policy hawk stances that run in-line with former presidential nominee and future Senate Armed Services Chair John McCain. The problem for Graham is that McCain is too closely associated with him, and the public has soured severely on McCain, making him the least popular senator in the body, and meaning that if McCain oversteps his power and becomes Darrell Issa (albeit a Darrell Issa with universal name recognition, meaning that he'll be far more covered by the national media), Graham will be toast.
Why He Should Still Be Worried?: Let's face it: aside from the fact that McCain and his foreign policy will not fly in a presidential election, Lindsey Graham has personal problems that won't follow-through in a Republican primary. Graham's lack of a wife and, well, his personality that sends gaydars across the country going into ping overdrive, is something that will cost him severely in a GOP primary. This country isn't quite ready to elect a gay president (we barely are ready to elect a gay man statewide: Kevin Lembo was the first to win election statewide as a Democrat in Connecticut, almost all other gay candidates who have won statewide have been women), but it's certainly not going to do so in a Republican Primary in 2016.
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| Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) |
Did he gain?: No
Why?: Mike Huckabee is one of the few men on the Republican list who is going to run based on social and evangelical issues. This makes him someone who is probably underestimated by the right. Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan are hard right, but they are so on economic issues first, not social issues, and so really only Rick Santorum can rival Huckabee on that front, and everyone knows that candidacy is doomed. Huckabee's problem is that no one seems to want to discuss social issues in the GOP anymore. They'll talk about things like Hobby Lobby and gay marriage a bit on the campaign trail in sharp red states, but even there they try to avoid it-the GOP wants this race to be about Obama, the economy, and the ACA (and maybe foreign policy, depending on how that goes), but the social issues they're largely on the wrong side of the majority on, and they don't want them brought up as is evidenced by 2014. Huckabee may have made a grave mistake by not running in 2012, as his time probably has passed.
Why He Shouldn't Be Worried?: I'm going to flip this one a bit because I just went over why Huckabee should be worried; Huckabee's greatest attribute is going to be talking about things people like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie don't want to talk about. There's still a lot of votes left trumpeting hard for personhood and overturning gay marriage laws in the conservative South and across select Midwestern/Rocky Mountain states, and Huckabee as a Baptist minister has a validity on this issue with Christian conservatives that almost no one else does, and the evangelical vote may want to be heard after a Midterm that largely ignored them.
Gov. Bobby Jindal
Did he gain?: No
Why?: Jindal is essentially just another name on the list now. Admittedly, he did gain by the GOP clearly becoming more diverse with wins by Mia Love in Utah and Tim Scott in South Carolina, and I think it's appropriate that a person-of-color is in the field, but Jindal is the wrong choice. He's still unpopular in his home state, he's never been able to make a proper indent in the public's mind despite frequently being trumpeted as a golden boy, and quite frankly, between Bush, Christie, Walker, and Kasich, there are way too many governors in this race, and his personality isn't bold enough to take on their money and dynamism. Jindal would have been helped if, say, Walker had lost or Republicans had done poorly nationally, reflecting badly on Christie. Republican wins in this case probably hurt him.
Why He Should Worry?: Honestly? Because he's going to be an after thought. Bobby Jindal hasn't had a strong tenure as governor, and everyone knows it, and there are way too many names in this race for him to find a foothold.
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| Gov. John Kasich (R-OH) |
Did He Gain?: Yes, absolutely.
Why?: He won reelection in a landslide. Never mind that the Democrats essentially ran the worst possible candidate they could find, Kasich crushed the blue out of Ohio, the quintessential swing state, and is as a result a proven winner in a state the GOP must win in 2016 to remain competitive. That alone is enough to lend himself to the field.
Why He Should Worry?: Kasich A) is one of several states where a fellow Republican is going to run, and in this case no one seems to want to defer to another candidate like in Florida or Wisconsin and B) he's not very dynamic. Let's not forget that Kasich ran (abysmally) for the White House in 2000, not even making it to the Iowa Straw Poll. His best attribute (bringing Ohio into the fold) makes him great for the second spot on the ticket, and even then Rob Portman is clearly the better asset to the GOP.
Sen. Rand Paul
Did He Gain?: Absolutely.
Why?: Not only does he have his fellow senator in the Majority Leader position (and crowing that Paul should be president), but this past cycle proved that there is a strong national appetite for someone who doesn't fit the traditional mold of a presidential candidate. There has been a lot of talk about Paul's validity as a candidate considering his father and their brand of Libertarian-roots. That seems to be washing away as Paul has an appeal that Hillary Clinton should be extremely nervous about facing.
Why He Should Worry?: He still has to make it through a primary. I think if he does, voters 18-29 may feel about him the same way they felt about President Obama six years ago, but he still has pretty solidly libertarian views that people like Christie (who probably views Paul as the threat he needs to extinguish first) will go after like gangbusters.
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| Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN) |
Did He Gain?: No
Why?: Mike Pence is probably the longest shot on the GOP side of this list, primarily because he hasn't been forming the national profile that Christie, Cruz, and Paul have been forging since Obama won reelection. It also doesn't help that in a sea of governors, he's not standing out quite yet. Plus, his candidacy may make the Indiana gubernatorial seat more vulnerable to a political return by Sen. Evan Bayh or 2012 candidate John Gregg.
Why He Shouldn't Worry?: We'll spin it a bit again here, and talk about where Pence has really strong bonafides: on the budget. A former House Republican Conference Chair, Pence may not play as well in the general election due to his harsh focus on cutting spending, but that sure will play well in the Republican presidential primary, and I suspect he'll go after the field for how far to the right they'll run on the economy.
Gov. Rick Perry
Did He Gain?: No
Why?: Because, despite doing the legacy thing of following his governorship with another Republican (always important), he still remains a joke, and no amount of Warby Parker glasses is ever going to correct that. Plus, let's be honest here-Perry's gallivanting around the country, trying to sway businesses to come to Texas has left a foul taste in the mouths of local residents whose jobs may be on the line as a result of his campaigning. That's not going to play well in a state like Nevada, where unemployment is already high, or Ohio, where the fear of outsourcing trumps partisanship.
Why He Should Worry?: Furthermore, Perry lost his best chance in 2012, and I suspect that if he runs he'll become the equivalent of, say Orrin Hatch in the 2000 election: the party has to pay attention to him due to his stature, but no one is actually going to take his candidacy seriously.
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| Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) |
Did He Gain?: Big time
Why?: Because the focus of the past election wasn't on social issues. Rob Portman is known for two things: his incredible handle on the issues/debating skills and his stance on gay marriage. The less the national populace talks about gay marriage, the better (Rob Portman is clearly rooting hard for a gay marriage decision by the Supreme Court so this entire issue can be taken off the table), and in 2014 it became clear that no Republicans wanted to talk about gay marriage.
Why He Should Worry?: It's doubtful that a Supreme Court decision will happen in-time to really save Portman from having to make some pretty firm comments about this subject in every interview he does across the country. Portman's a bit bland, and this added some flavor to him, but not flavor that will play well at all amongst conservative Christians (he still has to worry about a primary for his Senate seat in 2016 as a result of it).
Gov. Mitt Romney
Did He Gain?: Hell's yes.
Why?: Because the only thing Mitt Romney has going for him is buyer's remorse. That's it, end of story. Mitt Romney has been a national figure for over a decade now, and the American populace has rejected him (twice). He's not a good national candidate-he comes across as too stiff, too out-of-touch, and both he and his wife play poorly compared to someone like Barack and Michelle Obama when it comes to softball style interviews. That said, if the Republicans still want to beat Barack Obama (and boy do they), this is the only way they ever will-by showering the man that "America should have chosen" with love and the nomination once again. There's clearly an appetite for this-Romney is receiving wild receptions across the country, and I think he'll end up running at the end of the day as a result.
Why He Should Worry?: He negates everything that the GOP can go after Hillary for. He's the same age as her, he's richer than her, and he's clearly a part of the GOP's past. Honestly, from a nonpartisan perspective I cannot see why you would want to go with Romney when you have a younger, tougher group of candidates in Christie, Ryan, and Paul, but clearly the appetite for Romney hasn't died down, which has to make Hillary Clinton salivate.
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| Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) |
Did He Gain?: Not even a little
Why?: Because 2014 made Jeb want to run, and Marco Rubio pales in comparison to Jeb when it comes to Florida politicians. Rubio emerged in 2010 as Jeb's protegee, someone who could be the future face of the party, but since then he has had a series of fumbles, botching immigration reform and becoming a national punchline with his desperate need for a tiny bottle of water. He can't also be fighting against Jeb for the same sort of support in Florida donors, and the same donor base overall. Additionally, Rubio clearly isn't ready for primetime, and probably should sit this presidential race out, except there's absolutely no guarantee that he won't be sitting out his only shot at the presidency (if a Republican wins in 2016, eight years is a lifetime in politics and by then a new flavor-of-the-month will have taken over).
Why He Shouldn't Worry?: Rubio's best electoral attribute, and I know this is simplifying things, is the way he'll be able to help Hispanic voters. The reality is that the Democrats don't have a serious Hispanic contender for the vice presidency, and the GOP has several (Rubio, Cruz, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez), which will surely be something that could hurt Hillary Clinton going into 2016, when Hispanic voters will be vital for her in swing states like Florida and Colorado.
Rep. Paul Ryan
Did He Gain?: It's hard to say.
Why?: Because Paul Ryan's career has been a gigantic question mark these past few years. The reality is that he cannot be both Speaker and President, and has given some indications in recent weeks that he clearly doesn't want to be Speaker (though that was apparent to me when he decided not to challenge Kevin McCarthy when that seemed like a decent place to make his intentions known). Overall, the 2014 Midterms have little effect on Ryan-the real question is whether he runs in 2016. I have maintained he's one of the better candidates if he runs: he's affable, he has that teflon thing that Joni Ernst seems to be enjoying right now (no matter his views, people are willing to forgive a smile and a Midwestern accent), and he has bonafides that few others could challenge in a primary. That being said-does he have the fire? This is someone who is talking about wanting to go home, not stay in the House-did the 2012 presidential campaign take it out of him?
Why He Should Worry?: Mitt Romney is likely going to run in 2016 (I don't care what he says-I can feel it happening) and Scott Walker is also a very strong contender. Both of these men may defer to Paul Ryan, but not if he becomes the Hamlet on the Oconto.
Gov. Scott Walker
Did He Gain?: Definitely
Why?: Because he won reelection. Walker once again snatched victory away from hapless Wisconsin Democrats (seriously, guys, is this just with Walker or am I going to have to suffer through another six years of Ron Johnson too?!?), and therefore cemented himself in the 2016 presidential race as a Republican who has won three times in major elections in a critical swing state.
Why He Should Worry?: Because while the national media isn't really focusing on him, people like Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal sure as hell are-I think anyone who looks a bit below-the-surface understands that Walker is one of the more underrated candidates for the GOP in 2016, and could well be a major force with a little bit of luck. Christie in particular is going to make sure that he denies him that luck.
And now, for the Democrats...
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| Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) |
Did She Gain?: Absolutely
Why?: You may think that no Democrat actually gained on Tuesday, and you're right in a way. The beliefs that Hillary Clinton has championed her entire life sure took a hit with Tuesday's elections. That being said, her presidential prospects have never looked better. The bench for the Democrats looks miserable, and for a party that clearly needs to start rebuilding, there's no one that would better provide coattails than the former First Lady. She gained a lot of favors campaigning this past cycle, and basically everyone from the liberal left to the working class middle in the Democratic Party is holding their breath waiting for her to enter the race.
Why She Should Worry?: Atrophy. Hillary has become inevitable because we made her inevitable. She hasn't become inevitable because she's a proven campaigner quite yet (in fact, compared to Elizabeth Warren she's pretty rusty). Hillary has to start embracing the party and what she can do for the future, and she needs to not be so insular like she was six years ago. There is a lot of worry that comes with all of the attributes Clinton's campaign has, and I suspect that she knows this.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Did She Gain?: No doubt about it.
Why?: Elizabeth Warren proved two things on the campaign trail this year. First, she proved that red-state Democrats don't have to be afraid of her (she regularly campaigned in areas that would never actually vote for her) and second, she proved that there's a vein of the Democratic Party that is dying for someone like her. Her populism in terms of economic issues is the first real obstacle Hillary has to get past, and don't think that Clinton doesn't know it-there's a reason she couldn't stop singing Elizabeth Warren's praises when she was campaigning in Massachusetts.
Why She Should Worry?: Those promises that she won't run against Hillary are going to be hard to get out of, and I still am not sure if she actually wants to be president or not. This isn't a public figure who has clearly been gunning for it her entire life like Clinton, Biden, Bush, and Christie-she became a senator more out of Republican stupidity (they should have just appointed her to the CFPB and they may have kept that Senate seat) than out of sheer ambition. I see someone who clearly wants to make a difference when it comes to Warren, but not someone who has the gumption to run for the White House (yet).
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| Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) |
Did He Gain?: Not even remotely.
Why?: Hillary Clinton can distance herself from President Obama because she had a major national profile before he won, and because try as hard as they might, the Republicans will never be able to make her more connected to President Obama than President Bill Clinton. That's not the case with Joe Biden, who has to take the losses by Democrats this cycle around his neck, and carry them into 2016. Forget that he's already overshadowed by Clinton and Warren, and that he's far too old to mount a challenge-now he has to take the loss of the Senate and his boss being blamed for John Boehner/Mitch McConnell being in charge. That is a rock that's pretty heavy.
Why He Shouldn't Worry?: The big question with Joe Biden (the most significant potential player in 2016 that I haven't a clue about his intentions) was always will he run if Hillary doesn't run. I've always maintained he would, but the rise of Elizabeth Warren means that the Vice President probably wouldn't even start as the frontrunner even without Hillary in the race.
Sen. Bernie Sanders
Did He Gain?: No
Why?: Bernie Sanders worst nightmare happened in Maine this year. A third party candidate (Eliot Cutler) pulled a Ralph Nader and cost us a governor's race. The reality is that Sanders was also hurt by Greg Orman losing in Kansas. There's clearly an opening in today's presidential races for a third party option (someone with a zillion dollars could probably pull a Ross Perot with relative ease, though only obnoxious politicians like Mike Bloomberg and Donald Trump would actually consider it), but the Nader sting is still incredibly high, and while Sanders could make waves in a primary, he'll never be able to take on Hillary because he's never been an actual Democrat.
Why We Should Worry?: There is no greater nightmare for the national Democratic Party right now than Bernie Sanders or Angus King making a third party play for the White House. Even picking up 3-4% nationally could cost the Democrats critically in a state like Ohio or Florida, and give the White House to the Republicans.
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| Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) |
Did He Gain?: Absolutely not.
Why?: Martin O'Malley had a near perfect liberal agenda to run on for 2016 as governor: immigration reform, same-sex marriage, repealing the death penalty-it's a cornucopia of ideas that will play well in a primary. The only thing he had left to seal his legacy was to get a Democrat to follow him into the governor's mansion, but at the last minute Anthony Brown blew it. Despite leading in basically every poll, Anthony Brown lost to Larry Hogan, putting a severe mar on Martin O'Malley's record, and putting his presidential race into a difficult position.
Why He Should Worry?: O'Malley cannot beat Hillary, but if she doesn't run he has a shot. That said, he's not as compelling as Kirsten Gillibrand or Elizabeth Warren, and not an institution in the party like Joe Biden. He cannot afford slipups, and everything that Hogan does as governor will reflect somewhat on O'Malley, since he couldn't seal the deal and get Brown into office.
And there you have it-the presidential candidates and where they stand now. I think we'll have one last post about the Midterms tonight, and then we'll be done. In the meantime-what are your thoughts about where everyone stands for 2016? Share in the comments!
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