October Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Once again we arrive at the Best Picture race, and what a strange trip it is this year.  There seems to be only two things that everyone can agree upon: A) this year has been fairly weak in terms of overall Best Picture contenders and B) as of this writing, no film has emerged as an obvious candidate to win Best Picture.

There are several films, though, that seem like they are in a position where they will surely be nominated, and at the top of that list would be the two major British biopics: The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything.  Both films look to be in the camp of movies that get nominated, but don’t win (instead scoring acting or writing prizes), but we aren’t predicting winners right now, just nominees, and I cannot fathom a Best Picture race without either of them.

I also feel like, in a year that’s looking pretty weak, Oscar will rest on his favorites, and that means that Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, a World War II epic in a year begging for one, will be a third nominee.  Jolie’s film is probably the closest you have to a frontrunner for the win (though the Academy clearly jumped the gun on giving her the Hersholt, as this would be her third Oscar before she hits forty), and even if it underwhelms a bit, in a year like this it surely will land in the Top 8-10, which should be enough.

Passion is occasionally a major factor in getting a nomination in the 5+-wide field, and while I was a bit skeptical over its inclusion, I am starting to feel like Boyhood may be impossible to ignore.  Richard Linklater is in a very strong position in Best Director (and after the Jesse-and-Celine trilogy, is sort of in that moment where you feel like the Academy has to honor him with a Best Director citation at some point), and it will surely get a lot of first-place ballot slots.  I suspect that it also makes the cut.

There will at least be five nominees, and I’ll finish out with what I’m assuming is the surest bet for the final slot, Birdman.  While the movie may be a little autre for Oscar, I think that its near universal praise will make it a contender for a nomination thanks to the lackluster fare that has come out (and the rather slim winter lineup only helps matters).  Gonzalez Inarritu hasn’t been in the Best Picture game for eight years and it seems well-timed for him to return.

The rest of the lineup is something of a question mark.  The biggest one, and the one I'm betting hardest on, is Selma.  The film finally proved its existence with a recent trailer, and while it struck slightly more comedic tones than I expected, it seems like the sort of heavy, Oscar BAIT-y drama that manages to make it onto the larger Best Picture lineup.  I'm still not quite sold because this is a film that few people have seen, but on paper it seems like a strong bet.

The same can no longer be said for Interstellar, where, despite a decent Rotten Tomatoes score, the naysayers seem to be out-performing the yaysayers, and the fact that it couldn't land Number One at the Box Office may be a problem (Hollywood doesn't need another disappointment this year).  I'm actually dropping this from my predictions for now, but considering that the Best Picture lineup is horribly blockbuster averse this year (there's no real chance for any other blockbusters to make the cut), AMPAS may want to throw Christopher Nolan a bone if only for the ratings.

A few other films seem to be in contention, but it's hard to read where they go.  The site In Contention is really high on Whiplash, and it is the sort of film that sneaks in in a Top 10 situation, but will enough people see it?  Mike Leigh's Mr. Turner could be a contender, but he hasn't been to the Best Picture lineup in almost twenty years, and this seems like a pretty small picture with no big stars, so there's a genuine question over whether it could actually make the cut.  Bennett Miller's Foxcatcher has somewhat faded from existence (that movie clearly needs to open, and soon), but he's done very well with this category in the past (both Capote and Moneyball made the shortlist).  Reese Witherspoon could pull a 127 Hours and land Wild a nomination with nothing but her sheer moxie.  If A Most Violent Year is deemed important enough, it could possibly make the cut.  And of course late-in-the-year box office or major critical prestige could boost Into the Woods into the running.

That being said, I'm going to say that the best shots right now are with two major Academy favorites: Clint Eastwood and David Fincher.  Eastwood's American Sniper is, like Selma, one of the big question marks of the year-will it be any good?  Will it hit a chord with AMPAS?  Just how big did Bradley Cooper's biceps get for it?  All of these questions will be answered in a few weeks when it opens, however, and I think that Clint will be able to make it to the Best Picture rodeo once again with this edgy-looking character piece.  David Fincher's Gone Girl may be a bit populist and pulp-y, but in a year where Box Office receipts were down across-the-board, don't you think AMPAS will want to reward a favorite director who manages to make a massive hit that's both critically-lauded and commercially successful?

September Oscar Predictions: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Fury, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Selma, The Theory of Everything, and Unbroken
October Oscar Predictions: I kind of already spelled it out, but I'm feeling The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, The Imitation Game, Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, Gone Girl, and American Sniper.  I'm not going to push for a ninth film even though that's Oscar's sweet spot lately, though if I did I'd probably keep Interstellar on the docket, and I'm not completely sold on Gone Girl and American Sniper, but this is the time to take risks in predicting before the precursors steal away the mystery.

How about you?  What are your Best Picture predictions?  Share in the comments!