The Rise of the Independents?

Former Sen. Larry Pressler (I-SD)

Yesterday one of the most stunning polls of the entire cycle came out in the state of South Dakota.  From SurveyUSA (one of the gold standards of American political polling), the Mount Rushmore State showed a near dead heat in the race for the Senate seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tim Johnson.  The Republican frontrunner, Gov. Mike Rounds, was at only 35% of the vote against former Republican-turned-Independent Sen. Larry Pressler with 32% of the vote and Democratic congressional staffer Rick Weiland at 28% (another Independent, Gordon Howie, got 3%).

Pressler’s rise (or Rounds’ downfall, depending on how you want to look at it) is part of a larger narrative surrounding independent candidates this cycle.  For years, we’ve heard people complain ad nauseam about the lack of a third party option, but for the most part this has been all talk.  It’s extremely rare for an independent candidate to rise above the pack-people like Jesse Ventura and Angus King are well-known precisely because they are the opposite of the norm.

This year, though, that conventional wisdom seems to have changed.  In addition to Pressler, we’ve consistently seen Greg Orman, a businessman from Kansas who has connections to both parties but is running as an independent, polling higher than Sen. Pat Roberts, who has become the most vulnerable Republican in Congress (either House, quite frankly, a title I’m sure Michael Grimm is happy to relinquish).  We’ve also seen the Alaska governor’s race make Gov. Sean Parnell (R) become an underdog thanks to a strange fusion ticket between Independent candidate Mayor Bill Walker and Democratic candidate Mayor Byron Mallott.  Polling there shows Walker/Mallott overcoming the Republicans by a few points fairly consistently.

There’s a few things to ponder with this trend.  The first is why now?  It could be because people are finally fed up with the two-party system, but that’s been at a “tipping point” for decades now with no major change (the rise of Ross Perot in the 1990’s was far more significant in this regard, and we haven’t seen a third party candidate that came close to what Perot accomplished in those two elections in the four presidential elections since).  I think what may be causing the problem is that in large part, the Democrats are trying some Hail Mary passes in these races in hopes of overcoming a longtime hold on the status quo.

It’s worth noting that Orman’s and Walker’s leads are in large part due to the Democrats dropping out of their races and endorsing someone who likely will agree with them more than 50% of the time, but who isn’t encumbered with a party label that makes them associated with President Obama.  This is allowing the Independents, despite clearly getting some background help from the Democratic Party, to largely fly solo of the parties.  With Orman, he hasn’t pledged which party he’ll join (and says he may alternate back-and-forth, making him a senator we’re either all going to admire or loathe in six years if he wins).  With Walker, he’s a governor, and will largely be able to stay above the fray (it’s worth noting that Eliot Cutler is also running a very strong three-way race in Maine for governor, but no one expects him to win, unlike Orman, Walker, and increasingly Pressler, though he may very well act as the spoiler in the race).

Rick Weiland (D-SD)

The South Dakota race is a very different set of dynamics.  For starters, the Democrat, Rick Weiland, remains in the race.  Secondly, it’s pretty clear that Pressler is taking votes from both candidates pretty evenly, though a little bit more from Weiland.  The results of the race state that if Pressler were to drop out, the race would be tied between he and Weiland, which is a bit insane considering national Democrats haven’t even mentioned Rick Weiland (though the DSCC yesterday announced a $1 million ad buy in the state).  This election puts the Democrats in the state (and nationally) into a pickle.  Part of why this race is so competitive is that it has run outside of the purview of the national parties-both sides have written the seat off and as a result Rounds hasn’t had to go negative and this race is entirely based around local and not national issues (Rounds’ involvement in an EB-5 controversy has taken a severe hit on his frontrunner status).  The Democrats have two choices here: either they throw caution to the wind and heavily back Pressler (who would definitely win in a two-way race), much like they did with Angus King and hope he’ll side with them, or they strategically try to pick off enough of Pressler’s Democrats to gain a plurality.

The second option sounds more inviting, of course, but it’s fraught with a good chunk of peril.  Part of why Pressler is so supported statewide is because he’s currently a viable option to win.  This is why I suspect Eliot Cutler will eventually start to falter in Maine-he’s not going to win.  Many people like third party candidates in theory, but don’t want to throw away their vote so they stick with a major party candidate who can actually win.  If the Democrats take away most of their support from Pressler, causing him to flatline down to say 16%, it’s very likely that the Republicans who are backing Pressler but have Rounds as their second choice would follow suit.  If I were a South Dakota Democrat, I’d struggle with this vote-which candidate is more likely to beat Rounds, and do I risk a vote for Pressler when I know he might back Mitch McConnell?

That being said, this race has clearly entered the territory of competitive at this point, and with the DSCC on the air and Rounds refusing to go negative, it could well stay there.  Democrats are increasingly down in Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana, and it’s starting to look like the Democrats best shots may be in open or Republican seats (Note: I am not advocating that they should get out of AR/AK/LA, just that South Dakota, Kentucky, and Georgia have clearly become real options in the math in the last few weeks, and the goal is 50 first, not protect incumbents first).  If this race continues to poll like SurveyUSA just found it could, expect to see more national attention spilled here.

And regardless of the outcome, expect a lot more talk about some of these men (especially Orman, King, and Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders) to start looking into a potential third party presidential run in 2016.  As we’re seeing on the road right now, there’s an appetite for it.