Thursday, September 11, 2014
2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
Looking at this year, at least two of those categories are somewhat occupied (I'm still waiting for a 70+ woman to emerge-if you have an idea of one that might, share in the comments). A number of the top contenders this year are in the ingenue/just starting out category. Felicity Jones, who may well be moving to lead, would be toward the top of the list. Playing the devoted and long-suffering wife, she's got Oscar's favorite role and could pull a Jennifer Connelly and win the trophy if she stays supporting (if I were her I'd go for it, as it's difficult to see her winning lead when Redmayne won't). Joining her is Keira Knightley, playing another long-suffering romantic (or rather platonically romantic) partner to Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Emma Stone, who is the long-suffering daughter of a crazy father in Birdman. Though she's not quite in the ingenue phase of her career anymore at 37, everyone's favorite human being Jessica Chastain apparently gets the best part in Interstellar, so I wouldn't doubt her making it. Rounding out the ingenue bunch would be Katherine Waterston, the most unknown of the contenders, who gets a plum part in Inherent Vice and seems like the sort of actor we're all going to claim we had heard of in a few months.
Then there's a handful of actresses who could emerge given the right sort of circumstances. No one is entirely sure how Into the Woods will turn out, but either Emily Blunt or Anna Kendrick should at least be mentioned here. If the year weakens a bit, we might see Viola Davis for Get on Up come back into the conversation for her brief work in that film. Then there's always the less showy supporting work of someone like Marisa Tomei in Love is Strange, Kristin Scott Thomas in My Old Lady, or Marion Bailey in Mr. Turner, but those films will need more momentum to get in here. And if all else fails with Oscar, play a hooker, which could be the trick for Naomi Watts to land a third citation for St. Vincent.
My Predictions: Hmm, I'm going to go with Stone, Waterston, Arquette, Ejogo, and Jones at this point, though if Jones goes lead I'm guessing that Blunt probably moves up to her place. These five have a nice balance between Best Picture, "due," ingenue, and just a bit of a category fraud. I still feel like there must be an older actress that could sneak in, but occasionally this category misses its social security recipient so I will stop hunting for now.
Is There a Winner?: This category is the most susceptible to an "out-of-nowhere" winner (Nyong'o won on her film debut), so any of these five women could theoretically win. If I had to bet, though, I would assume that Ejogo and Jones are the most likely to emerge based on history and their roles.