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| Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes with former President Bill Clinton |
As a result of this, though, I figured it was time to look
again at what seats are most likely to turn, and where the battle for the
Senate will shift. Below I will
rank the ten seats most likely to change hands (Number One being the most
likely), and what the dynamics are of each of the seats. Quibble in the comments if you have any
opinions to the contrary.
10. Kentucky
I could be one of those people who cheats and lists twelve
seats so that I can mention Michigan and Georgia, but honestly, neither of
those seats seem particularly compelling at this point. Terri Lynn Land hasn’t been able to top
a poll in a while, and Rep. Gary Peters (D) does appear to be able to hold the
Michigan seat for the Democrats at this point, even though he’s a fairly
lackluster candidate when you get down to it (think Richard Blumenthal in
2010). And Michelle Nunn (D) may
have run a very strong campaign in Georgia, but she isn’t running against a
Washington politician with David Perdue having won the nomination in the Peach
State (thus depriving her of her "outsider" argument), so I just don’t see a way for her to win right now. Both of these seats are close, but I
don’t see a genuine chance of either of them flipping.
The same cannot be said for Kentucky. This seat has started
to fall in my opinion in competitiveness as the Republicans have gained a bit
of steam in the past few weeks and McConnell has been ahead in a couple of
polls (albeit within the margin of error). Recent allegations that McConnell’s wife is fighting against
coal in Kentucky could hold water, but I would assume that Alison Lundergan
Grimes, who has made her campaign largely around McConnell not being good for
women, could be reluctant to attack his family members, particularly a female
one. This race still could turn,
but McConnell has the slightest of advantages in a seat that is a must hold for
the party.
9. Colorado
One of the closer races on-paper, I still cannot quite buy
that Rep. Cory Gardner is the second coming that Chris Cillizza and others around
Washington claim him to be. Sen.
Mark Udall has the advantage on-paper, having both won statewide before and
enjoying a state that has gone sharply blue in the past few elections (including 2010), but guns
and immigration being major topics in this state could make him
vulnerable. I still think that if
the election were held today Udall would win, but this race is more on the list because it’s one of the more likely to turn if the Republicans pick up any
steam.
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| Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) |
Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has had a wild ride this cycle. For a while there she seemed like the
most vulnerable elected incumbent in the country, but now that seems to have
shifted. The dynamics of this race
favor her opponent Speaker Thom Tillis (R), but he has been stuck in the
unpopular state legislature and Hagan has been out campaigning harder than
him. This race could become the
most expensive of the cycle, but polls have shown a definite shift in momentum
back to Hagan, who is benefitting from not running against a generic
Republican. There’s also the wild
card of Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh running for the seat. Haugh may not get more than 2-3% of the
vote in November, but in a race this close that could be all that Hagan needs
to win a squeaker second-term.
7. Iowa
Probably the election that I find the most intriguing in the
country right now, as there is little doubt the Republican is running the
better race but the Democrat here has an inherent advantage. Rep. Bruce Braley’s idiotic comments
disparaging farmers (and popular Sen. Chuck Grassley) landed like a lead
balloon in an agricultural state, and State Sen. Joni Ernst has run an
unconventional but pretty effective campaign. As a result, I think that Ernst would win if this were a
different state, but Iowa, while pretty much the definition of a purple state,
has gone Democratic in the past two presidential elections and has gotten used
to electing a Democrat to this seat (if it were Grassley retiring, I think it would be going red).
That could be the difference here, but Ernst is hardly the gadfly that
Democrats were hoping for and this is a coin-toss election.
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| Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) |
It’s hard to tell, quite frankly, whether it is Iowa or
Alaska or North Carolina that is "THE SEAT" for the Democrats (these seats
combined surely are the wall the DSCC should be spending most of their money
on right now, though-if Harry Reid can hold all three it’s hard to see him
losing the Senate), but considering it’s the most conservative of the states,
I’m going with Alaska. Still, this
is one of the only seats where the GOP candidate hasn’t been decided (though
it’s likely to be former National Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan), and
anything could happen as a result.
Sen. Mark Begich only won six years ago because of a scandal, but Alaska
loves its incumbents, even the junior ones, and Begich has run a very strong campaign (albeit a
slightly odd one when you get into the “riding Lisa Murkowski’s coattails" portion of it). If the election
were held today I think he’d head to a recount, but it’s hard to see him
maintaining this kind of momentum for three more months so I suspect this is
the sixth seat. Still, he's in a stronger position now than I would have expected.
5. Louisiana
I’m torn whether Mary Landrieu or Mark Pryor is the more
vulnerable incumbent. Landrieu has
a lot more options than Pryor, though, so I’ll stick with her at fifth. Her best shot still remains winning in
November, and that’s the operation that she is running under right now.
Landrieu has won reelection statewide more than any other person on this list
save Mitch McConnell, and that has to count for something-clearly voters like
her enough to check the box for her, and she’s running a top-notch campaign. The question continues to be whether she can get enough
voters in New Orleans to the polls to win 50%+1 in November (she’ll probably
have little trouble reaching 46%-it’s the last few points that will be a
burden). If she cannot, she has to
hope that everyone above her name won their reelection, as it’s hard to see her
being able to make an argument for her reelection if she’s the pivotal vote
giving the Democrats control of the Senate or if the Republicans are already in
the majority (thus depriving her of her gavel on the Energy Committee). Like Begich, it’s tough to see her
winning, but it’s still theoretically possible.
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| Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) |
The last of the “unlikely, but possible” senators, Mark
Pryor has had a ride that’s sort of the inverse of Kay Hagan. Polling in Arkansas has been scarce,
but what little polling that has come out shows that Rep. Tom Cotton has
emerged into a tie, if not a slight lead over Pryor. Pryor has excellent retail politicking skills and Cotton has
flubbed a couple of times throughout the campaign, but that’s just not enough
with hatred of President Obama so strong here. If it were a vote on whom the voters liked better
personally, I have a feeling that Pryor would be winning (if the party labels
were reversed, this wouldn’t even be close), but elections in the South have
become far, far more partisan in recent years-this is likely to be a fail for the
Democrats.
3. West Virginia
West Virginia moving down this list is more of a sign that
Montana has become a cluster for the Democrats rather than any hope for Sec. Natalie Tennant
beating Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.
Tennant has done better with getting fundraising and fundraisers
(including Elizabeth Warren and Heidi Heitkamp, both of whom have an appeal
here), but this race has yet to remotely exhibit any sort of sign that it could
be competitive. Capito is surely
going to win, even with the historical trend the Democrats have in the state.
2. Montana
Sen. John Walsh ended his short campaign, meaning that what
once was a longshot is now a complete goner. Democrats may get NARAL President Nancy Keenan or a member
of the state legislature, but the best they could hope for is that they don’t
drag down the rest of the ticket.
Rep. Steve Daines got SO lucky this cycle with Baucus, Schweitzer, and
Walsh all imploding or chickening out, and will be the rare one-term
representative that jumps straight to the Senate.
1. South Dakota
I’m still mad at former congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who, considering
the movement of this cycle, could well have won here considering a legitimate
Democratic challenger probably would have meant a more organized effort to
sabotage the Republican primary.
She’ll now become a former congresswoman forever, and Mike Rounds will
be senator.
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