That's not the case for these twenty races, which in my opinion are the the twenty I'm most intrigued by how they will turn out in November (and in a couple of cases, slightly earlier). I figured we haven't done too much politics this week, so this was a great time to give this a go! Here are the twenty races that I am most intrigued/following the closest this year (they're listed in alphabetical order, not necessarily order of interest):
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| Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) |
Arkansas Senate
Why It Intrigues Me: On
the surface, it’s not a seat that I would consider particularly
competitive. The state went
against the Democrats hard in recent years, none more so than in 2010, when
incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln lost by more than 20-points without a scandal
and after two terms in office (this is basically unheard of in Senate
politics). And yet Mark Pryor
continually racks up support in poll after poll after poll. For some reason Tom Cotton is not
resonating with Arkansas State voters, and Pryor has become one of (if not the) most important senators in the
battle to retain the Democratic majority.
California-21
Why It Intrigues Me: With
the renewed focus on immigration, this is the
seat that the Democrats may pick up as a result of the Republicans’
continued refusal to pass any immigration bills into law. The district is over 70% Hispanic, and
went for President Obama twice.
Amanda Renteria wasn’t the Democrats first choice, but that may not
matter if she can get some turnout in a district that went for President Obama
by 11-points in 2012 but still elected Republican David Valadao.
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| City Councilman Carl DeMaio (R-CA) |
California-52
Why It Intrigues Me: The
Republicans have not elected an openly gay man to Congress since Jim Kolbe
retired, and while they have several gay candidates running this year under
their banner, none seems more likely to win than San Diego City Councilman Carl
DeMaio. Incumbent Rep. Scott
Peters has demographics in the district on his side (the seat went for
President Obama twice), but DeMaio has the polls headed in his direction.
Colorado Senate
Why It Intrigues Me: Everyone
and his mother in the political world has been talking about what a superb
candidate Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is, and I’m genuinely curious if he can hold up
to the hype against first-term Sen. Mark Udall (D). Udall is hardly the best campaigner the Democrats have in
the country, but he’s won statewide before and this is an increasingly blue
state. Juxtaposing that
conventional wisdom, though, is the recent string of gun laws in the state that
recalled two Democratic state senators and the potential for the very
anti-immigration Rep. Tom Tancredo to be the gubernatorial candidate (thus
driving up Hispanic voters, aiding Udall). Expect Gardner to talk guns and Udall to talk immigration
until the electorate picks which issue they care about more.
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| Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D-FL) |
Florida Governor
Why It Intrigues Me: This
is arguably the most interesting race in the country. You have a pretty unpopular incumbent in Gov. Rick Scott
(R), who happens to have more money than God to spend on this race if he so
chooses. On the opposite end is
former Gov. Charlie Crist, a Democrat who was very recently (like four years
ago recently) was a Republican incumbent governor running for the Senate and
positioning himself for a White House run in 2012. Crist leads slightly, but I’ll be curious if A) Scott’s
avalanche of spending in this race has an effect and B) if Democrats will get
out for a man they vigorously disliked just a few years ago.
Hawaii Senate and Gubernatorial
Democratic Primaries
Why It Intrigues Me: I’m
grouping these together because they are very linked. Gov. Neil Abercrombie has actually been down in a few polls
to State Sen. David Ige after a rough first term in office, and could well be
taken down in a primary. Part of
his unpopularity was around not appointing Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to the late
Sen. Daniel Inouye’s seat, but oddly enough Hanabusa is struggling to maintain
traction against incumbent Sen. Brian Schatz. This could be a weird copy of the Alaska Murkowski races in
the mid-Aughts, where Gov. Frank Murkowski lost his primary (to Sarah Palin, no
less), in 2006 in part because of his appointing his daughter to her Senate
seat but his daughter Lisa managed to win her general election race in
2004. Schatz and Ige could both
very well win here, though almost any combination would be believable.
Illinois Governor
Why It Intrigues Me: Illinois
is one of the bluest states in the country, and Gov. Pat Quinn had better hope
that holds, as he is also one of the country’s most unpopular incumbents. Despite that fact, he may still be able
to hold on against venture capitalist Bruce Rauner in part by running against
Rauner’s career. Quinn’s only real
option is to drive up huge numbers of Democrats in Cook County (Illinois is so
population-imbalanced that he could theoretically lose every other county in
the state and still win the race if his numbers in Cook County are high
enough). He’s made a career out of
pulling victories when everyone had given him up for politically dead, so we’ll
see.
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| State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
Iowa Senate
Why It Intrigues Me: Iowa
has never elected a woman to Congress, and has a very good shot of doing it
this year, either with State Sen. Staci Appel in the open third district, or
here, with State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) running against Rep. Bruce Braley (D) for
Tom Harkin’s (D) seat. However,
recent polling shows that it will be men, not women, who hold the key to Ernst
winning her election, as she is down with women. This is one of the few Senate races that I can clearly state
that the Republicans seem to have the better candidate (Braley has been
gaffe-prone), but this is a seat where the Democrats have a slight edge. Will that be enough? And will Ernst try and play the
glass-ceiling card?
Kentucky Senate
Why It Intrigues Me: If
it weren’t Mitch McConnell and Kentucky, we’d all be talking about Alison
Lundergan Grimes winning this seat.
Polling has shown the race in a dead heat, but Grimes has the slightest
of edges in that polling, and against a five-term incumbent that would be a
death knell for McConnell. The
national headwinds are clearly at the GOP’s back, and McConnell is one of the
best campaigners in the country, but Grimes is holding steady. Could the Republicans really get a wave
nationally but local hatred for the Minority Leader cost them their 51st
seat? It could happen, which makes
this the only race to rival Florida’s gubernatorial election for most
intriguing race of the cycle.
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| Eliot Cutler (I-ME) |
Maine Governor
Why It Intrigues Me: Four
years ago, one of the biggest upsets in the country was Paul LePage winning the
Maine governor’s race because of progressives splitting between the Democrat
and Independent candidate Eliot Cutler.
Cutler is back again, as is LePage (who is pretty unpopular in this blue
state), but the Democrats have a better candidate in Rep. Mike Michaud. Michaud has the edge for now, but if
Cutler gains steam (Maine loves their independents), this could be another
victory for LePage.
Massachusetts
Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Why It Intrigues Me: Over
the past week, State Treasurer Steve Grossman won the state convention for the
Democrats, meaning that he heads into the September primaries (one of the
latest in the country) with institutional advantages over Attorney General
Martha Coakley, though at this point Coakley still leads in the polls. Coakley was the Democrat who lost Ted
Kennedy’s seat to Republican Scott Brown, so this political comeback will
either doom her political career or resuscitate it, depending on the outcome.
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| Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) |
Minnesota-7
Why It Intrigues Me: Four
years ago, a number of seemingly unbeatable veterans of Congress (Ike Skelton,
Jim Oberstar, Solomon Ortiz, Rick Boucher) lost their seats after decades of
service. There are very few
longtime conservative Democrats left in the House, but Collin Peterson is one
of the few. Peterson is facing his
toughest race in twenty years to State Sen. Torrey Westrom (who-interesting
tidbit, is one of the only legally-blind politicians in the country), and could
be in trouble if there’s some sort of wave this year. I was completely surprised when Peterson decided to run for
reelection, quite frankly, and will be curious if he still has the fire in him
to run a truly competitive campaign.
Mississippi
Republican Senate Runoff
If I have more time this weekend, I will try and tackle this
race a bit more in-depth, but whenever a longtime veteran of Washington (Thad
Cochran is currently the longest-serving Republican in Congress) is in jeopardy
of losing their seat it’s a big deal.
The ramifications from this race could be huge, particularly in terms of
bolstering the Tea Party for the rest of the year into 2016, as well as what
the impact the third consecutive cycle where a longtime Republican senator lost
re-nomination (we can split hairs on Arlen Specter, but he would have lost even
worse to Toomey) will be on other incumbents. John McCain and Chuck Grassley in particular may well
reconsider going at it again when they could get attacked from the right and
mar storied careers.
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| State Rep. Lucy Flores (D-NV) |
Nevada Lieutenant
Governor’s Race
The most obscure battle on this list, I have written a few
times about how this is really a prequel race to what may be the great Senate
battle of 2016. State Sen. Mark
Hutchison is the chosen candidate of popular Governor Brian Sandoval, whereas
State Rep. Lucy Flores is the handpicked Democrat of Sen. Harry Reid. A victory for Hutchison would prove
Sandoval has the upper hand in Nevada politics, whereas a win by Flores would
put Sandoval in a position where he’d give up the governorship to a Democrat if
he were to run for the Senate, something that would almost certainly deter him
from running.
New Hampshire Senate
One of the absolute weirdest races of the cycle, though it’s
questionable at this point how competitive it will be. The real question is how the people of
New Hampshire react to Scott Brown switching states to run for the GOP and
another Senate seat, and how much money the Koch Brothers decide to throw at
the race. Jeanne Shaheen is a
better candidate than either Martha Coakley or Elizabeth Warren, and this race
could have big implications down ballot, as New Hampshire voters have been
oddly apt to straight-ticket voting, but not necessarily for the same party.
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| Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) |
New Hampshire-1
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter has one of the oddest electoral
histories in the United States House.
If you look at her polling averages, she has been behind in the polls
every time that she’s run for the House, yet she’s managed to win 75% of the
time (and her 2006 victory was arguably the biggest congressional upset of the
night). She’s facing former Rep.
Frank Guinta for the third time this year, and the big question is A) can she
pull off a victory in a year that favors the Republicans (she hasn’t been able
to yet) and B) whether having Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen pushing at the
top of the ticket will carry her over the edge. Expect this to be the closest election in the first primary
state, which may well bring Hillary Clinton to New Hampshire.
North Carolina Senate
In terms of pure tossup races, you’d be hard-pressed to find
a better one than North Carolina.
Neither of the two competitors are particularly compelling politicians:
Speaker Thom Tillis (R) was the third or fourth choice of establishment
Republicans, whereas Kay Hagan didn’t so much win in 2008 as much as Elizabeth
Dole lost that year. However, this is perhaps the truest
wall in the Senate. While Arkansas
is starting to lean toward the Democrats, and Alaska is surely important (and
Mary Landrieu could still rebound), it’s North Carolina that will be delivering
a sucker punch to one party or the other: if Tillis wins, it’s hard to see the
Republicans not taking the Senate.
If Hagan wins, Harry Reid’s majority is pretty much assured. There’s a reason that both parties have
already made high seven-digit ad buys in this very expensive state: so goes
North Carolina, so goes the Senate.
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| State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-TX) |
Texas Governor
Easily the least competitive race on the list, the better
question here is about the future.
State Sen. Wendy Davis (D) won’t win despite being a hero to the liberal
establishment, but she is the first Democratic candidate since Ann Richards in
1994 to have had real support in Texas.
She’ll have millions upon millions of dollars to run a legitimate
campaign, incredible name recognition across the state, and so this will be a
great map of how the Democrats will be able to win Texas in future years. Frequently Democratic pundits ask “what
would happen if we actually tried in Texas?” This year we’ll find out.
Wisconsin Governor
And we’ll close with this race. Though not instantly compelling (it’s hard to make an
argument that Mary Burke is a more dynamic personality than incumbent Gov.
Scott Walker), there are a lot of great factors happening in this race. First off is the fact that the Democrats,
despite the blue nature of this state, haven’t been able to beat Walker both in
2010 and in a future recall election, making this his third chance to win the
Badger State. Walker also has
serious presidential hopes going into 2016, but he has to win this race to have
any sort of chance to be the Tea Party hopeful in 2016. And finally, there’s the scandals
effecting the governor’s race here-will Walker’s alleged involvement in outside
groups in his 2012 recall threaten to steal his momentum? All of which are questions that warrant
this being added to our list.
Those are my thoughts this year, though I’m sure there are
other races you’re excited to see the results of-what are they? What is going to be the signature race
of 2014?
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