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| House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) |
There was no bigger story last night than the defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a primary challenge from Tea Party challenger Dave Brat. There's a lot of Monday (err...Wednesday) morning quarterbacking today from pundits who said that Cantor should have seen this coming, but honestly-who saw this coming? This should not be undersold-this is probably the biggest political upset in a few cycles. No major member of the House leadership has lost reelection since 1994 (when Tom Foley lost in the general), and this has huge implications for the GOP.
Principally, it sets up a major battle for who will be the next Speaker of the House. John Boehner has been the source of speculation as to whether he would serve a third term as Speaker, and most assumed that Eric Cantor had the support to unite the Tea Party and the mainstream Republicans. That's not the case now. Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan will likely battle it out for a spot as the next Speaker, though I would assume at least one ultra-conservative Tea Party champion (though, to be fair, you don't get much more conservative on-paper than these two) will run. Ryan in particular has a major decision with Cantor out-he could well be Speaker in January, or he could hold out and give a shot at being President. It's probably an either/or situation for the Wisconsin congressman.
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| State Sen. Emily Caine (D-ME) |
Cantor's seat, for the record, poses no pickup opportunity for the Democrats. Even if Cantor runs as a write-in candidate (doubtful, in my opinion-he's too high profile to pull a Lisa Murkowski and this isn't a viable option for the Democrats in a two person race), I cannot see this seat going blue.
However, in Maine State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin (R) got through to the general against State Sen. Emily Cain (D) instead of former State Sen. Kevin Raye. Cahn was hoping Poliquin, who is much further to the right of this slight left district, would be her opponent, and had openly said so. She now gets a controversial opponent who has lost two recent statewide races (primaries for governor in 2010 and the U.S. Senate in 2012) and a history of making loose-lipped remarks (who had an extremely conservative tenure at the State Treasury). This race probably moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and marks the first time this cycle that the Tea Party has moved a race toward the Democrats. This is also a big win for Emily's List, who had been an early supporter of Cain's, and now will get another win in their column.
Not All Sunshine for the Tea Party
It's worth noting that the Tea Party didn't get everything it wanted last night. While they took out Eric Cantor, the other obvious prize was Sen. Lindsey Graham, who avoided a runoff in South Carolina ensuring that he'd win a third term in conservative South Carolina. Graham is arguably the most "maverick-y" of the Republicans running for reelection this year in the Senate (Susan Collins is the most moderate, but a Tea Party challenge in Maine would have been catastrophic for the GOP, and I have a feeling the entire Republican establishment was looking out for that-the Graham challenge seemed unavoidable). Graham, had he been forced into a runoff, would have been in a tough position considering that in a one-on-one, his more moderate record on certain issues (namely immigration) would have made him a target for the Tea Party. As it stands, though, this is probably the Tea Party's biggest miss of the cycle.
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| State Assemblywoman Lucy Flores (D-NV) |
In Nevada, the biggest story is that political junkies everywhere got a preview of what may be happening in 2016: a battle royale between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and popular incumbent governor Brian Sandoval. While Sandoval is expected to cruise to reelection in November, the Lieutenant Governor's seat has a separate election in the Silver State, and it has huge consequences for the future. State Sen. Mark Hutchison (who was endorsed by Sandoval) dispatched establishment GOP favorite State Sen. Sue Lowden in the Republican Primary, and Assemblywoman Lucy Flores easily sailed through the Democratic Primary.
This isn't just a high-profile race because Hutchison is a favorite of Sandoval and Flores is a favorite of Reid's. Were Sandoval to run for and win Harry Reid's seat in November 2016, the Lieutenant Governor would become the governor, thus making this race pivotal in who would next lead the crucial swing state. It is assumed that Sandoval would not run against Reid if it meant giving the governorship to the Democrats, so Flores' candidacy is a key way for Reid to help his reelection. Expect both parties to push for massive GOTV in this down-ballot race, which could effect races further down-ballot, principally the third district congressional race.
Who's Next for the Tea Party?
After a series of primary wins by establishment candidates (John Cornyn, Mike Simpson, Mitch McConnell), the past couple of weeks have been all about Tea Party insurgency. Ralph Hall and Eric Cantor have both lost their primaries to underfunded challengers, and Sen. Thad Cochran is now in a runoff that polling shows he will lose. The question now becomes who is next. The name that seemed to be mentioned the most throughout last night was Milton Wolf's in Kansas. Sen. Pat Roberts does fit the profile of a candidate who could be vulnerable to a Tea Party challenge-he hasn't faced a tough race in years, and this momentum will have to shift somewhere. Expect the NRSC to get involved with an ad buy for Roberts in the next few weeks. It's worth noting that Wolf is probably the most "incendiary" of the Tea Party Senate challengers this year, and while Kansas is one of the hardest right states in the country, Wolf would put the seat at least moderately in play (in the same vein as Travis Childers in Mississippi) for the Democrats.
Those are my thoughts this (very early) morning. What are yours about last night's primaries?
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