Five Thoughts on Last Night's Primaries

Last night, eight states held primaries across the country (in Alabama, California, Mississippi, Iowa, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota, and yes, if you're reading this and didn't vote yesterday despite living in one of these states you should be hanging your head a bit low).  Here are five of my biggest takeaways of the night:

Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D-CA)

1. The Democrats Have Got to Do Something About "Top Two" in California

Two years after Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar proved that the top two system was wildly faulty (the top two system is that the top two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election-I discussed it a bit more in-depth on Monday on the site).  Two years later, the Democrats appear to have not learned any lessons.  In the 31st district, once again Aguilar is within the margin of error over a second Republican advancing (Republican Paul Chabot has already earned one of the two slots).  This is a district that Barack Obama won by 57% two years ago-it would be appalling to not have a Democrat as a candidate, but splintered support for Emily's List endorsed candidate Eloise Gomez Reyes and former Rep. Joe Baca has led to what may turn out to be one of the biggest blunders of the cycle (this was all but a given for the Democrats considering Republican Rep. George Miller is retiring).  If Aguilar can manage to hold his 390-vote lead, he'll almost assuredly go to Congress; if not, this is a Republican seat and the Democrats suffered an embarrassing blow.

This wasn't the only seat that had this problem.  Democrat John Perez is hanging on to only a .1% lead (about 2000 votes) in a statewide contest for Controller that is the difference between the Democrats having a candidate in November or not (this is a seat that they currently hold, so this would be an automatic pickup for the GOP if Perez isn't successful).  And in California's open 25th district, the Democrat missed the top two slots due to weak turnout.  This is a district where Mitt Romney only beat Barack Obama by 2-points, and it's an embarrassment that Democrat Lee Rogers and the CA Democratic Party (and Nancy Pelosi) couldn't secure a slot for him in the general.  It's worth noting that the California Republicans (famously disorganized) ran into no issues with advancing candidates last night, and even got their preferred candidates in closely watched races for governor and CA-7.

State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

2. Iowa Republicans Win One and Lose One

State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) clobbered the competition in her race for the U.S. Senate, avoiding a runoff (Iowa has a rule that if you cannot hit 35% of the vote, you have to go to a convention, in which case a more conservative candidate has the upperhand).  Ernst has been fast emerging as a fairly strong (albeit unconventional candidate), and unlike Monica Wehby (who seems to have been greatly overrated by the press) may be a candidate worth looking into for the Republicans.  The Democratic candidate (Rep. Bruce Braley) has made a number of stumbles and isn't the rock star that his fundraising would suggest.  I would imagine the Koch Brothers will be doing some major ad buys here shortly.

In the third district, though, the Republicans couldn't get a candidate over the 35% threshold, which means that all candidates will go to a convention, as well as additional candidates who may choose to run for the seat.  Though Republicans say this could be good news, it's doubtful.  The last time a congressional election went to a convention it produced Rep. Steve King, one of the more controversial members of the party (if you're not familiar, google him and you'll realize pretty quickly).  King has the luxury of a more conservative seat to run in-the third is an even PVI that went for Barack Obama by 4-points in 2012.  If they go with a King style candidate, this becomes the Democrats' second-strongest (first strongest if Aguilar doesn't advance) pickup opportunity in the country.  State Sen. Staci Appel is the candidate for Iowa Democrats.

It's also worth noting that Iowa is one of only two states that has never sent a woman to Congress (Mississippi is the other), so if either Ernst or Appel win, it would be a big glass-ceiling breaker.

3. The Republicans (Almost) Have Learned to Manage the Tea Party

In addition to the races in California, Republicans managed to avoid a potentially ugly general election in New Jersey, where Mayor Tom MacArthur, the establishment choice for the Republicans, beat out Tea Party favorite Steve Lonegan.  This is one of the most closely-watched races in the country, as a win by Lonegan would have meant that Freeholder Aimee Belgard would have been a shoo-in for a pickup in this district.  Now, the Republicans have a 50/50 shot at the seat.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)

4. Why I Had to Just Put Almost

We're still waiting on the results of the Mississippi Senate race, but in easily the biggest news of last night, State Rep. Chris McDaniel may have scored the biggest Tea Party victory of the cycle, with him leading Sen. Thad Cochran by .4% of the vote.  If neither man gains 50%, the race goes to a runoff, but conventional wisdom is that McDaniel would be favored there.

This is interesting for a couple of reasons, principally because Cochran is one of the most senior members of the Republican Senate caucus (only Orrin Hatch has served there longer) and this would be the second incumbent that the Tea Party managed to oust this cycle.  It's also interesting because a swirl of controversy is surrounding Chris McDaniel over supporters of him taking photos of Sen. Cochran's wife (who is in a nursing home), and McDaniel has made multiple controversial statements regarding race and women.  If he advances to the general election, this could have shades of the Indiana Senate race in 2012, where Sen. Richard Lugar's loss in a primary cost the Republicans a key seat.  Democratic former Rep. Travis Childers has a more conservative electorate to deal with than Joe Donnelly did in that year, but you can bet national Democrats are studying up on him right now, as a loss in Mississippi would be devastating for the national GOP, however remote it may be.

5. The Race That Might Have Been

It's worth noting that there was an election last night that should have been more consequential than it actually was.  Gov. Mike Rounds easily won his Republican primary in South Dakota, meaning that he will almost certainly pick up the seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, as the Democrats have a paltry candidate in Rick Weiland.  The National Journal profiled this race on Monday, but it bears repeating that this was the most disappointing moment for the DSCC this year.  Democrats had not one but two great candidates in former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson.  Due to the meddling of former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, neither candidate entered the race, and in Herseth's position in particular this was a devastating loss for the national Democrats, as her popularity has increased since she lost in 2010 and this was the best  and (probably) last chance for her to properly re-enter the national stage.  It's worth noting that the Tea Party also missed the boat here by not getting Rep. Kristi Noem to enter a primary against Rounds-I'm still flummoxed by a politician with her ambition that she didn't take what seemed like a smart risk and run for a promotion, particularly once Herseth was out of the race.

Those are my thoughts this morning-what are yours?  What was the stunning victory/loss that got you thinking the most?  Share in the comments!