New States: We've seen an influx of several new states backing gay marriage in the past month. Oregon had initially been planned for a ballot measure in November, but a court case overruled their ban on gay marriage several months early. Pennsylvania also had their gay marriage ban overturned.
Both of these states, it's worth noting, have Democratic Attorneys General, who then have chosen not to appeal or request a stay. Therefore, they are not amongst the seven states that are currently appealing the decision and have a stay blocking gay marriage in the meantime (those states are Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas, Michigan, Idaho, and Arkansas, though it's worth noting that Virginia has a Democratic Attorney General who does not back the appeal and supports gay marriage). Kentucky and Ohio are missing from that list because, while they also have had recent gay marriage victories, their victories were only that the states had to recognize marriages performed outside of the state.
New States?: This begs the question, then, of who is next. Perhaps the most exciting thing that's happened outside of Oregon and Pennsylvania in the past few weeks is the introduction of same-sex marriage cases in Montana and South Dakota last week, leaving only one state, North Dakota, without either a court case appealing the state's gay marriage ban or legalized gay marriage on the books. This appears to be changing however-Joshua Newville, who is currently trying the South Dakota case, appears to be also looking for litigants in North Dakota, and a case is expected to be filed there in the next few weeks.
It's worth noting that this doesn't appear to extend to all U.S. territories, however. While the District of Columbia recognizes gay marriage, and there is at least one pending court case in Puerto Rico, none of the other territories seem to have made much progress on gay marriage. Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands have a combined population of around 375,000 people (smaller than even Wyoming), but they may be the last holdouts at this rate on this very quick gay marriage train (any ambitious lawyers in those places going to try and stamp out the final gay marriage bans in the country...just saying?).
The question is, though, which state is actually going to be next. The rate at which these states are coming in with their bans and then the quick stays appears to be at an enormously speedy and sporadic rate, so the next gay marriage court decision is hard to predict and could theoretically happen almost anywhere. It's worth noting, though, that Nevada is the only state in the union that has the following combination going for it: gay marriage ban, no stay banning gay marriages being performed pending appeals, 2012 Obama state, and a Democratic attorney general. Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto has stated that her attorneys won't defend the ban in the state, which is probably the best indicator of a soon to be overturned ban. Yesterday, the federal appeals court put Nevada's gay marriage ban case on the docket for September, which at this rate could be the end of the gay marriage ban in the state.
The other state to really look out for is Wisconsin. While the State Supreme Court refused to hear a ruling recently over whether the state's gay marriage ban was legal, a court case still sits in appeals court, and Republicans in the state are very nervous. Despite the state having gone for Democrats in the past seven presidential elections (even Dukakis won it), the state currently has a Republican governor and attorney general (this is why you vote in Midterms people!) and this past week Attorney General J.B. van Hollen issued the unusual request to have the judge (who has promised a decision imminently) place on hold any future order she would make that would strike down the state's gay marriage ban. This is odd, and while a gay marriage ban in Wisconsin is likely going to be hit with a very quick stay/appeal combo (thanks to an ambitious Republican Attorney General), this feels like it's about to become the next state to have a landmark court case.
New Endorsers in Congress: While court cases across the country have been overturning gay marriage, opinions in Congress have remained largely stagnant after the huge run of Democrats (and some Republicans) who came out for gay marriage last year. In the House, though, a new name has emerged: Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) who became just the sixth congressional Republican to endorse gay marriage in the past two weeks (it was a bit of an odd rollout, so the exact date is up for debate). This now means that 187 gay marriage supporters are currently serving in the U.S. House and (give or take Mary Landrieu, but I'll take for the moment) 56 senators do in the U.S. Senate.
The number of Democrats in Congress who don't support gay marriage has continued to dwindle, and now stands at little over a dozen. Recently Sen. John Walsh (D-MT), along with his state's governor Steve Bullock, came out against Montana's same-sex marriage ban, meaning that the only Democratic senators in Congress who don't support gay marriage remain Mark Pryor (D-AR) and Joe Manchin (D-WV). Incidentally, Bullock's change on the issue also puts the number of Democratic governors up one who support gay marriage. Now only three Democrats, Steve Beshear (KY), Mike Beebe (AR), and Earl Ray Tomblin (WV) are not on record as supporting gay marriage (it's worth noting that no Republican governor supports gay marriage).
In the House, I can only find fifteen Democratic members that have not come out for gay marriage, and that number is likely to go down this year. Reps. Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre are retiring (though both are assuredly going to be replaced by anti-gay marriage Republicans), and Rep. Nick Rahall is in the fight of his life. Of the fifteen, in addition to those three congressmen, Pete Gallego, Collin Peterson, and John Barrow represent districts won heavily by Mitt Romney, and Bill Enyart has a district won by President Obama only by a slim margin. I still think, though, that unless they change their opinions on the matters, the remaining eight would be well worth a primary challenge. They are Reps. Cedric Richmond (LA), Terri Sewell (AL), Bennie Thompson (MS), Gene Green (TX), Filemon Vela (TX), Henry Cuellar (TX), Sanford Bishop (GA), and Dan Lipinski (IL). Lipinski in particular stands out to me, as not only is he a Democrat in a seat that President Obama won (twice), but he's also in a state where gay marriage is actually legal, making him perhaps the most worthy of a primary challenge.
Finally, looking at the challengers running for the Senate this year (I might get into the House a bit after the election, as that's a lot of seats to juggle for one article), most major Democratic Senate challengers or candidates in open seats support gay marriage, including Gary Peters, Bruce Braley, Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Michelle Nunn. The only other high-profile candidate I cannot find information on one way or the other (now that John Walsh has come out in favor) is on Natalie Tennant. Anyone who has a definitive statement from Tennant's campaign or record (one way or the other) can post in the comments with a link and I'll update the post. On the right, as far as I can tell, I can see no major Republican Senate candidate who backs gay marriage (again, correct me in the comments), though there are three high profile gay Republicans running for Congress this year in New Hampshire (Dan Innis), California (Carl DeMaio), and Massachusetts (Richad Tisei).
And that's the state of gay marriage at the moment-I'll keep checking back with more updates as we get them, but in the comments, what state do you think will be the next to overturn?
No comments:
Post a Comment