Checking in on the Senate

Sec. of State Natalie Tennant and Sen. John
Walsh, both long shots for the next Congress.

Any article about this year’s midterm elections starts and basically ends with a conversation about how the Republicans are likely to win the Senate, but the question is by how much and which seats.  The conventional wisdom has been that the Republicans have already locked up South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana (though the Democrats have decent candidates in the latter two races, I have yet to see any evidence disproving this hypothesis).  The Republicans will get their remaining three seats with some combination of Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa, and New Hampshire.  The Democrats have few pickup opportunities, with just Kentucky, Georgia, and theoretically Mississippi being potential gets, with the latter two being entirely dependent on primaries.

However with recent polling results in certain states looking bizarrely favorable to the Democrats, the question is more around what states are most likely to go to the Republicans.  Below I take a look at the eleven seats that will decide who is in the majority for the last two years of President Obama's term.

(Editor’s Note: If one of the WV/SD/MT trio somehow go to the Democrats, it’s near impossible to see the GOP winning back the Senate and most of the below will go blue; conversely if theoretically competitive states like Minnesota or Oregon start to become competitive it’s a bloodbath and most of the below states are going red).

Alaska

Sen. Mark Begich

The Race: The Last Frontier is one of the most Republican states in the country-the state hasn't gone for a Democratic presidential candidate in fifty years and before Mark Begich's fluke win over scandal-plagued incumbent Ted Stevens in 2008 no Democrat had won a Senate seat in the state since 1974.  Begich, however, has played pretty close to the vest and scandal-free.  The state does have an independent streak (it has also thrown out an incumbent governor and elected a write-in candidate statewide in the past decade), so it's not impossible to see Begich winning, but he needs some help from the GOP, who are not making things easy by clearing the field for establishment pick Dan Sullivan, former director of the Alaskan Department of Natural Resources.

The Polls: For such a competitive race, polling seems to be relatively sparse.  Rasmussen (which generally has a GOP-tilt) had the race neck-and-neck, though Begich was polling behind some Republicans.

The Twist: One of the Republicans running for the GOP Primary is Joe Miller, who ran a disastrous election in 2010 that allowed Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who lost the GOP primary, to win re-election as a write-in.  Miller is rumored to be considering a third party bid if he were to lose the primary (which he most likely will), which would be an enormous benefit to Begich.  Alaska has a strong history of giving support to third party candidates (it would be near certain that Miller could nab double digits), and since almost all of his support would be taken from Sullivan, that would be a game-changer.

If the Election Were Held Today: Begich would probably lose to Sullivan, provided Miller didn't get into the race as a third party...if he did, I would vote that this would go to the Democrats with ease.  This is a pretty winnable race, though, particularly since the Democrats can stay very competitive without having to spend a truckload of money.

Arkansas

Sen. Mark Pryor

The Race: This is pretty much the reason that I decided to write this article-polling in Arkansas and panic from the GOP seems to be running counter to conventional wisdom in the race, which is that Pryor is the most vulnerable incumbent.  I say this despite Pryor actually having led the last four polls in the state.

Signs of Panic: The most telling sign of panic from the Republicans comes from Tom Cotton pushing for five debates in the state.  Five debates is a fairly large number, and one of the best and most telltale signs that a candidate is in trouble is when they are trying to push for more debates (multiple debates mean more chances for gaffes-the person in the lead wants to take a knee and say as little as possible to maintain said lead).  It's worth noting that despite the shellacking that Blanche Lincoln took in 2010 (probably the most ominous sign for Pryor), Democrats have been able to win statewide here as recently as 2010 and there's a lot of money going into the GOTV efforts here, considering the equally competitive gubernatorial election and the two top races for the House.

Something to Prove: I have written on this site before about this, but Bill and Hillary Clinton are definitely mapping out where they can A) do the most good, B) provide assistance to allies and C) prove that Hillary can expand the playing field in 2016 in a way that no other Democrat could come close to doing (don't think that Hillary isn't aware that there's still Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, and Brian Schweitzer to take care of before the general election begins).  Bill Clinton won Romney-states like Louisiana, Kentucky, and of course his home state of Arkansas, and I would imagine he'll be out stumping hard their throughout the cycle in order to show that Hillary can win in the South come 2016.

If the Election Were Held Today: Honestly?  I think Pryor would take it by a hair.  That said, I still am betting on Cotton in November, but Pryor is running a smart campaign and is definitely avoiding Lincoln's enormous defeat margin.  This is a seat I didn't really factor into a theoretical win for the Democrats, and would be a huge coup if they won it, as some states I could actually see going to the Democrats in November even if they wouldn't win it as of now.

Colorado

Sen. Mark Udall

The Race: Nothing said Republican momentum quite like Rep. Cory Gardner getting into the Senate race.  This expanded the playing field in a major way-before Gardner's entry, this was theoretically competitive but first-term incumbent Sen. Mark Udall was favored.  Gardner, however, is an amiable two-term congressman who rode in on the 2010 Republican tsunami (taking out incumbent Rep. Betsy Markey...who incidentally is running statewide at the same time as Gardner for State Treasurer in a comeback bid).  This could be a very close race.

Are the Recalls Telling?: Recall elections don't always tell the full story (Tammy Baldwin can vouch that they aren't wholly indicative of what is to come), but the Republican-led recalls of State Senators Angela Giron and John Morse last year show that there is a very motivated red base in the Centennial State.  Udall cannot rest on his laurels to get out the vote.

So Much Money: Much has been made about the Koch Brothers gargantuan spending buys across states like North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa, but Tom Steyer, a Democratic billionaire and environmentalist, has also pledged to spend in the ballpark of $100 million in the midterm elections, and considering Mark Udall's stellar record on Steyer's pet issues (he has a lifetime score of 97% from the League of Conservation Voters), this is likely to be the Senate race that most appeals to Steyer (Udall has the highest lifetime score of any Democrat running in a competitive race, and only Jeanne Shaheen, another very likely Steyer candidate, can compare).

If the Election Were Held Today: Udall is the incumbent Democrat in an Obama state and is close, but still leading in the polls.  That spells him winning, but this is a very tight race and will most likely flip if the Democrats lose any more ground.

Georgia

Michelle Nunn

The Race: Multiple people (including myself) have said it, but the best Democratic recruit of the Senate cycle is surely Michelle Nunn.  Nunn has won plaudits for her moderate background (she worked for the first President Bush and her father was a conservative Democratic senator) as well as her work in the field of business, and has courted little to no controversy.  This is still a Republican state, however, and the Democrats are not in a position of strength, though it could come down to...

The Primary: The Tea Party has been fairly unsuccessful this cycle-challenges in Kentucky, Kansas, and Texas have gone nowhere quickly and open primaries in Alaska and Louisiana are sticking with the establishment.  That said, Georgia seems to be the ripest race for a Sharron Angle/Todd Akin situation, as all three Republican congressmen from the race (Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, and Phil Gingrey) have landed in some hot water, and Broun in particular could be a disaster for the Republicans.  Even their preferred candidate, multi-millionaire businessman David Perdue stepped in it recently for attacking the only major woman in the field (and the dark horse candidate) Karen Handel.  If Nunn lands a candidate in the Akin-mold, this could be the hallelujah chorus for the Democrats, as it means that the Republicans would need seven Democratic-held seats, a much steeper climb than six.  Remember-scandals still matter: 22,000 more Democratic Missourians vote in 2002 and Bill Frist loses his majority because Tim Hutchinson can't keep it in his pants.

Midterm Turnout: President Obama recently made headlines calling out minority voters and their low turnout in Midterm elections.  This is particularly important in the 2014 elections, where states like Arkansas, Michigan, Louisiana, and North Carolina will almost certainly be decided by turnout in minority communities, particularly in Georgia.  According to Roll Call, 375,000 African-American voters turned out in 2012 that didn't in 2010.  Considering the 90-95% support the African-American community gave to President Obama and the Democrat in 2012, had they turned out in those numbers in 2010 the Democrats would have won the governor's mansion.  Turning out huge numbers akin to 2012 will be crucial for Nunn if she wants a shot at this seat.

If the Election Were Held Today: Georgia is fast becoming a swing state, but it's not there quite yet, and Nunn needs a few more gaffes from the Republicans (and proof that the Democrats can maintain stronger GOTV efforts in Atlanta) before I call this for her.

Iowa

Rep. Bruce Braley

The Race: Every cycle there's a Senate candidate who appears to be a complete moron on the Democratic side, and this cycle it's most definitely Bruce Braley, a four-term congressman who appeared like your average generic Democrat (perfect for a blue-purple state like Iowa) until Braley's inane comments about Chuck Grassley not being a lawyer and instead being a farmer went over like a lead balloon, and while not technically as offensive as Todd Akin's comments, they were just as politically stupid.  If Braley were facing Grassley and not a pack of second tier Republicans, I would call this race for the GOP (I still cannot figure out why Tom Latham didn't get into this race when Cory Gardner entered in Colorado).

The Primary: The biggest story here is the free-for-all primary where no one seems to be the frontrunner.  I thought for a while there that State Sen. Joni Ernst was going to start to emerge, but controversies about her many absences from the Iowa State Senate have made me question that.  The race is probably between US Attorney Matt Whitaker and wealthy businessman Mark Jacobs, but neither seem particularly well-known.  Either candidate had better hope the Koch Brothers and their friends are willing to shell out some dough, as the one thing Braley does seem capable of doing is making buckets of cash.

Looking at 2016: Considering the very slight benches on both sides of the aisle, this race could have huge consequences for 2016 if Chuck Grassley follows Tom Harkin's lead and retires.  The Republicans, if they lose, could see a similar slate of candidates in 2016.  The Democrats, however, have only men in their mid-to-late sixties on their bench, so Braley's success could be crucial for congressional candidates State Sen. Staci Appel and State Rep. Pat Murphy-if either wins their House election, there's a good chance one will pull a Rick Berg/Steve Daines and try for an immediate promotion the next cycle.

If the Election Were Held Today: I think the relative lack of name recognition for the Republicans would mean Braley would be victorious, but he cannot afford more gaffes like the ones he's been lobbing.

Kentucky

Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes

The Race: Do you even need a background on this race?  The fight to take down Sen. Mitch McConnell has gained national media attention and millions of dollars in donations.  McConnell and his challenger Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes should be amongst the most well-funded candidates of the cycle.

Looking Below the Surface: The surface-level of this race is that McConnell is in trouble, but not incredible trouble.  As I've pointed out before, it's very rare for an incumbent senator to lose reelection if their party is in a wave, and McConnell's party seems poised to pick up seats.  However, if this isn't a wave election (there's still a lot of room to play), McConnell could actually be in tough shape.  Lundergan Grimes, according to Real Clear Politics, actually has the tiniest of margins up on McConnell if you look at polls, and while that's miniscule, it's something.  McConnell will pull out every stop he has to ensure he wins (his campaigns are famously negative), but you can't always win based on money alone, and McConnell's approval ratings in the red state of Kentucky are abysmal.

The Democrats Want It...BAD: I think more than almost any race, not only this cycle but more than any Senate election since probably Rick Santorum in 2006, the Democrats want the victory here.  There would be nothing more cathartic for the left than watching Mitch McConnell's party lose the majority because Mitch McConnell didn't get elected.  One of the most frequent talking points is that the Democratic base isn't fired up, but I have trouble believing that in the Bluegrass State this is the case.  The 35-year-old Lundergan Grimes would become a national star if she were to win this race, on par with John Thune after the 2004 victory over Tom Daschle.

If the Election Were Held Today: Flip a coin.  Conventional wisdom states that McConnell would win, the polls say it would be Lundergan Grimes.

Louisiana

Sen. Mary Landrieu

The Race: Mary Landrieu is always in the "race of her life" (I've written before how I hate this particular turn of phrase, amongst other things in politics).  This time, though, she may well be-the Republicans have done a decent job of clearing the field for Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy, and while Landrieu isn't currently the most vulnerable incumbent running (Kay Hagan probably takes that cake), the demographics in her state mean she likely will be in November.  It's worth mentioning that while North Carolina and Arkansas have elected multiple Democrats statewide in the past decade, Louisiana has only done this with two candidates...

What's in a Name?: ...though to the incumbent's credit, both of those people had the same last name: Landrieu (the other was Mary's younger brother Mitch).  The Landrieu name is the only thing keeping the Democrats from going extinct in the Bayou, and that name is surely the biggest factor in Landrieu's corner.  The only other thing that Landrieu desperately needs is record numbers of African-Americans to turn out in her favor.  President Obama's election in 2008 kept Landrieu from having to go to a runoff for the first time in her Senate career, and it is estimated that 185,000 African-American voters turned out in 2012 that didn't in 2010.  Landrieu has had near universal support from the African-American community in past elections, but she needs not only strong support but strong turnout if she's going to win here.

The Runoff: Landrieu's biggest obstacle isn't November, however-it's December.  The state has an open primary that anyone can run in, and provided that no one hits 50% in November, the election goes to December (Landrieu's best chances at surviving would be to take it to November, and it's not impossible-the state hasn't had a Senate runoff since 2002, in fact).  If this is Landrieu v. Cassidy in December, the national mood will entirely effect the race.  If the Democrats have already lost the Senate, Louisiana may want to send back a Republican to the majority (though it's worth noting that Landrieu still won in 2002 despite the Senate already being in the GOP's hands).  If the Democrats have somehow maintained their majority without Landrieu (a steep, but not impossible idea), Landrieu is in an incredible position considering her position as Chair of the Energy and Natural Resources committee (a hugely important position in this oil-rich state).  And if this is the state that effects the balance of power (not a far-fetched idea at all), then expect a race like you've never seen before.

If the Election Were Held Today: Landrieu would lose a runoff against Cassidy today, and I don't see a lot of good news in her future.  This is a red state, and her best and only shot is that the national environment picks up-the President needs to have numbers in the high 40's at least in order for her to win here in November.

Michigan

Rep. Gary Peters

The Race: This is sort of the opposite of the Arkansas seat.  While the Republicans continue to be flummoxed by Mark Pyor's decent numbers, the Democrats are gritting their teeth that former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has posted multiple polls with Land barely in the lead.  Peters seems to have come out a bit ahead in the wake of Land's recent kerfuffle over a misleading ad from the Koch Brothers, but this is a tight, tight race and one that mountains of cash has already been spent upon.

Only in Michigan: One of the odder things about the Wolverine State is that the Republicans have a spectacular bench whereas the Democrats have absolutely zilch.  Honestly-you'd be hard-pressed to find another solidly blue state where the Democrats have such a paltry slate of potential gubernatorial and Senate candidates.  This is largely due to the huge number of very senior Democrats in the House from the state (three of the Top 20 most senior members of the House are from Michigan...all of them have been serving since before I was born).  The only other Democrat who hasn't been in the House for thirty years from Michigan is Dan Kildee, who was just elected in 2012.  Weirder still is the fact that the Democrats cannot seem to win a constitutional office in the state.  The Democrats haven't won the Attorney General's office in over fifteen years and the Secretary of State's office in nearly 24 years.  This has resulted in the fairly lackluster Peters and the one-term congressman Mark Schauer being the party's standard-bearers this year, and the lack of appeal shows.

If the Election Were Held Today: This is still a blue state, and while Peters is hardly anyone's definition of exciting, he's still a Democrat in a blue state fighting for an open seat-he'd win, probably by a couple of points, and slip into the Senate as a low-key backbencher.  That said, Kelly Ayotte proved that there's a path for Land to gain victory in a light blue state, and so I wouldn't count her out (they have oddly similar profiles if you look closer).

Mississippi

Rep. Travis Childers

The Race: Why, you ask, is Mississippi here?  That's a pretty good question, and you can put it to State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R).  McDaniel appears to be the Tea Party and the Senate Conservatives Fund's best chance at taking down an incumbent senator, longtime incumbent Thad Cochran.  Cochran has polled ahead of McDaniel for a while now, but the polls have shown McDaniel closing the gap somewhat.  McDaniel's incendiary comments against women, Latinos, and African-Americans have caused a huge uproar and make him a prime target if the Republicans push him into the general election.

In the Wings: It's worth noting that this race becomes non-existent if Cochran wins the general, or if McDaniel doesn't continue to screw up royally (this is Mississippi we're talking about, after all).  However, it's worth noting that this is one of thew few states where President Obama actually gained on his performance from 2008 to 2012, and it's not impossible for Democrats to do well here (Jim Hood regularly wins re-election as the state's Attorney General).  The Democrats have a solid backup candidate in former Rep. Travis Childers, who lost reelection in 2010 but would make an acceptable alternative candidate if McDaniel is the nominee.

Shades of Indiana: The race you'll hear Democrats bandy about the most in regard to this contest is Indiana.  In 2012, Rep. Joe Donnelly went on a seemingly quixotic mission to try and take Sen. Richard Lugar's Senate seat, knowing full well that he'd have a better shot at his House seat (which was redistricted into a much more difficult situation), but thinking that this was the time to go for a promotion.  Donnelly of course was correct-the Republicans foolishly tossed Sen. Lugar to the curb, and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was an utter disaster, resulting in Donnelly winning the seat.  It would be a nice wink from the DSCC if they had Donnelly campaign with Childers in the near future or right after the primary if McDaniels is victorious.

If The Election Were Held Today: Clearly the Republicans would win-we're going to need a lot more Mourdock/Christine O'Donnell moments out of McDaniel before this race becomes actually compeitive.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen

The Race: Like Mississippi, I'm not 100% sold on this being on the list (and for the record before you jump down my throat for being hyper-partisan, I'm aware that New Hampshire is currently closer than Mississippi).  Sen. Jeanne Shaheen could well be vulnerable-she's lost in the state before (2002, in a tight race), but former Sen. Scott Brown just doesn't seem like the one to do it.

Too Much Candor?: One of the things that is appealing about Scott Brown (aside from the Cosmo spread) is his candor.  He's very much "of the people" and Shaheen doesn't have his ability to connect on the campaign trail.  That said, his campaign has been marred by a series of gaffes: the Hamlet of Concord Act he's been pulling about jumping into this race, the ho-hum explanation of why he's running, John Sununu, Sr. saying that Brown is more "New Hampshire" than Shaheen despite her being the state's senator and former governor while he just moved there.  These are all amateur, rookie mistakes, and Shaheen is a far better candidate than Martha Coakley, or quite frankly, Elizabeth Warren.  Plus, the Democrats have made great strides in this state and while 2010 is something to be scared of, the Democrats have won every other statewide election here since 2004.

Waiting in the Wings: In what will surely be a bit of a proxy fight, Kelly Ayotte and Maggie Hassan, arguably the two most important women from a state that has the country's first all-female delegation, will likely be trying to strategize through Shaheen and Brown (not to mention the very competitive House elections).  Ayotte is expected to run for reelection in 2016 and Hassan is likely to be the challenger against her, so they could both be on the campaign trail hard for their fellow party members (Hassan is also running for re-election).  And of course this is New Hampshire, so every 2016 presidential candidate worth their salt (perhaps even Hillary Clinton) will be out campaigning for this race if it remains close.

If the Election Were Held Today: Shaheen would win, no doubt about it.  This could get competitive, but Brown's the one who has to make it that way.

North Carolina

Sen. Kay Hagan

The Race: Despite what you may think from the media, this is not Senate Majority PAC vs. the Koch Brothers, though that's the way the money is spending.  Perhaps because the candidates running are rather non-descript (Kay Hagan is hardly the most memorable Democratic senator, and Thom Tillis is not the most inspiring Republican challenger), or perhaps because people just really like the Tar Heel State, the Koch Brothers and the Senate Majority PAC have drowned this market in a sea of nasty ads, and it's starting to take its toll, particularly on Hagan who is now in a virtual tie, and a little bit behind in some cases, with her potential Republican opponents.

Primary Time: Like Georgia, the Republicans have an actual threat to their preferred nominee from a Tea Party challenger.  Speaker of the House of Representatives Thom Tillis has been challenged from the right by physician Greg Bannon, and while the Koch Brothers seem to be doing the trick to keep Tillis at the top, this isn't something you can entirely ignore.  The Republicans claimed they had this problem kicked in 2012, and then Richard Mourdock came along.

Is This a Swing State?: It's often talked about how this is a Romney state, but it's worth noting it's hardly what you'd consider a particularly strong Romney state.  North Carolina was the second-closest state in the country in 2012 (after Florida) and went for President Obama in 2008.  As I have pointed out before, this was in large part due to the very strong support the Democratic Party received from African-Americans (a group that makes up 21% of the North Carolina population), who will be pivotal to Hagan's re-election.  Unlike some of her peers, though, African-American turnout is already expected to be high, as sharp attacks against voting rights in the state have a lot of the left riled up and they are venting at a fairly unpopular incumbent in Republican Governor Pat McCrory.

If the Election Were Held Today: Hagan would lose, but unlike Landrieu where there isn't a lot of hope, Hagan will probably benefit once the Republicans give her someone she can target.  She just needs to avoid becoming Blanche Lincoln in the meantime.

And with that, I have conceded six seats (WV, SD, MT, AK, LA, and NC) to the Republicans as of now, but clearly there's still a lot of game to play here; nail-biter races in Kentucky, Arkansas, and North Carolina especially could keep Harry Reid barely in the majority. What about you-where do you think all of the races end up this fall?  Share in the comments!