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| Former Florida CFO Alex Sink |
The reality is that this is a hard blow for the Democrats, and one that should not be taken lightly. This was an extremely winnable seat, and the Democrats went all out. While I don't quite buy the "she raised more and he won" argument due to the enormous sums of money being spent by outside parties, there's something to be said that the Democrats couldn't stick the landing with such a superior candidate. Democrats can always rely on their crutches (their base doesn't vote in special elections, it was a Republican-held district locally, Sink didn't connect with voters...), but let's not beat around the bush-this is a race they should have won.
But the question is if this is the Scott Brown "canary in the coal mine" sort of situation that it's being made out to be. Should Kay Hagan, Mark Pryor, and Mary Landrieu start packing their bags, as the Democratic Party is now doomed outside of Boston and LA? To take a better look at that, I decided to investigate some of the latest special elections from the past six cycles and see if they were truly indicative of what happened next (note, I'm trying to only highlight special elections that were close in nature-something like a Robin Kelly situation is not going to be a barometer for a general election regardless of the atmosphere).
2002
Special Elections: The only special election to change hands before the general elections was Randy Forbes winning the seat held by Norm Sisisky (D) in June of 2001. This is probably not a great barometer, however, since 9/11 was one of the major factors in the general election in 2002, as well as the War in Iraq, and neither of those events had happened yet.
General Election: Despite these two factors, Forbes's win did mimic (even if it wasn't necessarily predictive) the general elections, which heavily favored Republican candidates from across the country.
2004
Special Elections: Two major special elections happened prior to the November general elections in 2004 in Kentucky and South Dakota. In Kentucky, then State Attorney General Ben Chandler (D), after losing a bruising gubernatorial battle to Rep. Ernie Fletcher, ran for and won Fletcher's seat in Congress. Later that year, Stephanie Herseth (D) won a tight (winning by just over a point) special election to fill the seat of Rep. Bill Janklow (R).
General Election: If there's some place the Democrats can take a bit of solace, it's here. Chandler and Herseth's wins seem like they should have been predictive of a Democratic landslide later in the year, but in fact the Republicans ended up netting three seats that November. However, this should be said with a grain of salt, as both Herseth and Chandler share a remarkable similarity to Alex Sink. Both candidates had recently ran and lost statewide, both had considerably better ground game operations for a special election, and both ran against underwhelming GOP candidates. The fact that Sink lost and Chandler/Herseth won may be telling in its own right. That being said, on paper this has to go in the "special elections aren't always barometers" bucket.
2006
Special Elections: Two special elections were held between 2004 and 2006 that were oddly close, and both were holds for the Republicans. When Rep. Rob Portman was appointed U.S. Trade Representative, St. Rep. Jean Schmidt seemed like an ideal candidate to run and started as the favorite. However, Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett managed to come within three points of Schmidt, though ultimately came up short. Later that year, Rep. Brian Bilbray staged a successful comeback in California to fill the seat of disgraced incumbent Duke Cunningham, but not before Cardiff School Board Trustee Francine Busby made him sweat for it. If you remember this race, you'll remember that NO ONE thought Busby would make a race of it at the beginning of the cycle and she nearly toppled Bilbray in the end.
General Election: On paper, this is another case of "special elections aren't always barometers"-both Republican candidates emerged victorious on election day, and yet the Democrats clobbered the Republicans in November. However, these were both relatively safe Republican seats, and the fact that the Democrats could make them competitive showed that they had the wind at their backs for November.
2008
Special Elections: Probably the best place to look for advice since this was the last six-year itch, the Democrats picked up three House seats in early 2008, with Denny Hastert, Richard Baker, and Roger Wicker all being replaced by Democrats despite the bent of their districts grossly favoring the Republicans. The only other close race was in Indiana, which Democrat Andre Carson also won, but it was way closer than the liberal bent of this district would have usually allowed.
General Election: If Republicans want comfort, this is where it is-these three pickups were a sign of things to come in November, where not only the Democrats won big, they won big in odd places (Idaho had a Democratic representative, for crying out loud).
2010
Special Elections: Everyone always points out Scott Brown and says "obviously it was a sign for November" but it's worth noting that there were actually signs the Democrats could have won as well. Bill Owens and Scott Murphy both won tight special elections in 2009, with Owens even picking up a Republican seat, and Mark Critz won a tight special election in Pennsylvania earlier in 2010. The only special election aside from Brown's that showed signs of a Republican wave would have been in Hawaii, where Charles Djou won Neil Abercrombie's seat, though that election is not what you'd call a fair fight (Hawaii has bizarre special election rules that aren't really invented to favor Democrats).
General Election: The Republicans won in a tsunami across the country, which was not at all predicted by the mixed bag of special election results in the years before.
2012
Special Elections: Two special elections happened in the years after the Republican wave, both in New York. The first was a victory for the Democrats-Kathy Hochul was able to win disgraced Rep. Chris Lee's seat despite that being a pretty conservative district. Later that year, Anthony Weiner's Twitter scandal caused the Democrats to lose a very liberal seat in New York City, with Rep. Bob Turner stunning to win. Both of these show a mixed bag, and both races were pretty heavily scarred by sex scandals.
General Election: The Democrats had a strong night, though not as strong as 2006 or 2008. However, again, the special elections weren't really great indicators here-theoretically something like Turner winning shouldn't have happened.
So that's where we are-it's not really a great barometer, though it's worth noting that this is hardly a good sign or something for the Democrats to dismiss. Sink should have pulled off this race, and that's of concern.
One last note before we go-there's been quite a bit of movement for Sink to run again, and while I don't think this is a good idea (though there's little chance anyone would win-people don't throw out incumbents after a special unless it's a weird circumstance), she has very little incentive to run again. The last person to lose a special election and then win the general was Colleen Hanabusa in 2010, but she was hampered by having to compete against multiple Democrats in the special that year but not in the general election. The last true time that they swapped was in 1994, where St. Rep. Peter Barca beat businessman Mark Neumann in a special election by just 645 votes, and followed that up with Neumann beating Barca by only 1120 votes later that year. Twenty years without a true break in that streak is ten lifetimes in politics, and likely means that Sink won't be in Congress next year, or likely ever.
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