Where last we left off, we were looking into the seats where the Democrats were on the defense. Now, though, it’s time to discuss a bit of offense, as there are far more Republican seats up than Democratic ones.
Republican Open Seats
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| State Sen. Wendy Davis |
While Denny Daugaard (SD) and Matt Mead (WY) both haven’t officially announced that they are headed for reelection, both almost certainly will and even if they don’t the Democrats have absolutely no shot of winning in either case. Moving on, there’s just three seats that are open and none of them look super promising for the Democrats. The most likely to be retained by the GOP is probably Nebraska, where a half dozen Republicans are running to replace Governor Dave Heineman (who is term-limited and oddly turned down a certain Senate seat). The Democrats have a Grade-C candidate who will run a respectable but unsuccessful campaign in Center for Rural Affairs Director Chuck Hassebrook.
The most high profile race in this trio is the one pitting Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott against liberal superstar State Sen. Wendy Davis. Davis became famous in June of 2013 for her multi-hour filibuster regarding abortion rights, starting a major Twitter campaign (if you’ll recall, I “stood with Wendy”) and becoming a celebrity overnight. As a result, her fundraising is absolutely spectacular, and money in a race where she’ll need tens of millions does not seem in short supply. That being said, a liberal state senator is going to have an extraordinarily difficult time running in Texas, and her campaign has had a number of hiccups (particularly surrounding alleged inaccuracies in her biography) and what was once a longshot is becoming longer by the day.
The state Democrats could actually win in an open election is Arizona, which has been closer for the Democrats in the past few years and the growing Latino/Hispanic community in the state has increased the odds for Democrats running here (it’s only a matter of time before the Democrats take either this spot or one of the Senate seats). However, there’s a number of Republicans in the race (and Governor Jan Brewer keeps trying to find her way to another term), so I wouldn’t bet on Arizona Board of Regents Chair Fred DuVal.
Republicans Running for Reelection
Instead, the Democrats will probably have to do what they tend to do well in order to win seats-taking out incumbents. While Robert Bentley (AL), Sean Parnell (AK), Butch Otter (ID), Terry Branstad (IA), Brian Sandoval (NV), Susana Martinez (NM), Mary Fallin (OK), and Bill Haslam (TN) all are certain to win their races (the Nevada and New Mexico seats stick in my craw too that we’re just giving them up, but you find me a candidate worth cheering for in those blue-purple states), but there are still nine other races that are within the Democrats’ grasp.
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| Rep. Allyson Schwartz |
The best shot they have is surely the Keystone State. I don’t know that an incumbent governor has ever lost reelection in Pennsylvania (if they have, it hasn’t been in modern history), but Gov. Tom Corbett has appallingly bad approval ratings, and Rep. Allyson Schwartz (his likely opponent) has been taking advantage of them quite readily on the campaign trail. When you have your own party wondering if you should step down as an incumbent, you know you’re in bad shape and his head-to-head matchup numbers have been double-digit deficits against Schwartz. If the election were held today, this would be a blow-out, and Corbett seems assured only one term.
Probably the next closest race right now is in Maine. Gov. Paul LePage is wildly unpopular, and if he were in a traditional head-to-head with Rep. Mike Michaud, we’d all be calling him a goner (more than even Corbett), but Maine has a strong tradition of third party candidates, and Independent candidate Eliot Cutler (who actually outperformed the Democrat four years ago for this same office) will take away vital progressive votes from Michaud. Michaud is a better candidate than State Sen. Libby Mitchell, and Democrats are more aware now that LePage is a real possibility for a win in a three-way race. I would imagine that Michaud takes this, becoming the first openly gay man elected governor of a state.
In Florida, as is evidenced by polls that came out yesterday morning, former Gov. Charlie Crist (R-I-D…it depends on the day, but he’s sporting blue at the moment) is in great shape to pick up a crucial victory for the Democrats in the Sunshine State. Gov. Rick Scott is fairly unpopular, but has an estimated $218 million in personal money and is not above spending it.
These three states stand today as the Democrats’ best shots at pickups, but there are a few other races that are still possibilities, though I’d say the Republican has the edge (the first three states I’d side with a Democratic pickup right now). Three of those vulnerable Republican governors are in states that President Obama won in 2008 and 2012: John Kasich (OH), Scott Walker (WI), and Rick Snyder (MI).
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| Rep. Mark Schauer |
On paper Snyder of course makes the most sense, as he’s in the bluest of the three states and has the worst approval ratings, but as others have proven before him, Midwestern Republican governors tend to do well when they run for reelection. Snyder’s opponent isn’t great either: former Rep. Mark Schauer would be fine, except his last race was a recent loss (2010), and he only has one term in the House to boast of while running. This hasn’t stopped people from getting promoted before (just ask Maria Cantwell), but the Democrats’ thin bench is allowing Schauer this nomination; the state, thanks to the longevity of its House incumbents, sports the weakest bench in a blue state in the country. That said, if this ends up being a generic Republican vs. generic Democrat sort of battle, Michigan is a consistently blue state.
I have frequently discussed my disdain for recall elections, and you can look no further than Wisconsin for evidence-the Democrats start out in a severely weakened state heading into this race, since Scott Walker has now won twice in the past few years, and is still my dark horse guess for the Republican nomination two years from now. Former Wisconsin Secretary of Commerce Mary Burke has deep pockets and a decent resume despite little elected experience and her profile would be acceptable if Walker becomes vulnerable. National Democrats, after the idiocy of their treatment of Barbara Buono in 2013 (considering bridgegate, she should have won that race with a little more sleuthing from national Democrats), should be banging on every door in Milwaukee to try and take down the only serious Republican nominee for president up for re-election in 2014 (aside from Paul Ryan, and there’s no beating him).
Lastly, there’s Kasich, who is an outside contender for the national ticket in 2016 (then again, is there a Republican governor who isn’t mentioned for it at least in passing?), but not nearly to the extent that Walker is. Considering his recovering approval ratings, this is the least promising race of the three, but Ed FitzGerald, a Cuyahoga County Executive, has kept this race surprisingly in the margins, and shouldn’t be discounted.
It’s worth noting that with states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan being mentioned here that no one wants victory for the Democrats more than Hillary Clinton. When Terry McAuliffe won in 2013 in Virginia, Clinton gained a crucial ally (with a winning GOTV team) that she could utilize in a battleground state. I would imagine that the Clintons will be making appearances on behalf of Crist, Schwartz, FitzGerald, and the like in the upcoming months in hopes of gaining favors with potential governors that they’ll need to carry crucial 2016 states. I’d also expect people like Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush to also be out on the campaign trail for the GOP side (those endorsements could come in handy).
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| State Sen. Jason Carter |
We’ll end with three red states that for some reason are still in play: Georgia, Kansas, and South Carolina. While governor’s mansions are far more swing-between-the-parties than federal races, it’s hard to see Nathan Deal, Sam Brownback, or Nikki Haley (respectively) losing in today’s environment. That said, none of them have strong approval ratings, and in the case of Brownback, he’s actually doing quite poorly. I would wager all three come through in the end, but their challengers aren’t slouches. State Senator Vincent Shaheen (SC) ran a very tight race against Haley in a landslide Republican year in 2010, State Sen. Jason Carter has political legacy (he is the former President’s grandson) and a great campaign partner in Michelle Nunn, and Minority Leader Paul Davis has continued to poll outstandingly well for a Democrat in the Sunflower State. And since everyone wants to know what these seats mean for 2016, it’s worth noting that Haley has a pivotal early primary state (one that southern governors like Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush will be paying attention to), Carter represents a state with shifting demographics (Hillary is certainly looking at the Peach State in the same way Barack Obama looked at North Carolina in 2008), and Davis…well, a Republican incumbent losing in a state like Kansas would be weird and worth noting even if it would mean squat in 2016.
And those are my thoughts on the gubernatorial races. We’ll soon dive into the House races, but first-anyone have any thoughts on the gubernatorial elections? Which incumbent do you most suspect will be collecting unemployment come January? Share in the comments!
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