State of the Race: The Governors, Part 1

I was going to post this yesterday, and go with the theme of a very female-positive day of posts, but with the tragic death of Philip Seymour Hoffman, I thought that a post regarding the late Oscar winner was more appropriate.  Therefore, think of this as an extension of yesterday's discussions regarding successful women, as the Democrats are relying on a handful of ambitious candidates to succeed in the 2014 gubernatorial elections.

Democratic Open Seats

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley

When you've got a potentially rough election ahead of you, the first thing Democrats want to look at is their open seats, as those are generally the most vulnerable.  As I've pointed out on many occasions in the past, Democratic incumbents nearly always outperform Republican incumbents in a competitive race, but Republicans do well in competitive open seats.

While there are still a few Democrats who haven't officially announced their reelection campaigns (correct me in the comments if I'm wrong, but Jerry Brown, Maggie Hassan, Dan Malloy, and Andrew Cuomo haven't "officially" declared their reelection prospects, though all four are expected to run again), the only seats we know will be open are Arkansas (Mike Beebe), Maryland (Martin O'Malley), Massachusetts (Deval Patrick), and Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee).  Of these four, one sticks out like a sore thumb, and that would be the Land of Opportunity.  With Gov. Mike Beebe term-limited, the Democrats are relying on former Rep. Mike Ross to hold the mansion they've held since 2007, and he's actually running a decent campaign.  Ross is aided in part by running against former Rep. Asa Hutchinson, who has long been hailed as a major star in the GOP Party, but has had little success winning statewide here (he lost in both 1986 and 2006 to Democrats).  I wouldn't underestimate him, of course, but Ross is doing better than even Mark Pryor.  With this seat, the Senate seat, and two competitive House seats, Arkansas is going to be a major battleground for Democrats, and its rocky relationship with President Obama is going to be a giant hindrance.

Otherwise, the other three seats seem relatively safe for the Democrats, though competitive primaries in all three states make me question who will actually win.  As I mentioned above, female candidates are a big part of the Democratic team this year (it's worth noting that while Republicans have horrible percentages of their congressional delegations with an XX chromosome, they do outperform the Democrats with governors, as only one Democratic governor, Maggie Hassan, is a woman).  In Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is doing quite well and may cruise to the nomination and the win, five years after she cost the Democrats the supermajority in the Senate and brought Scott Brown into our lives.

Maryland Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown

In Rhode Island, State Treasurer Gina Raimondo is one of the top candidates to succeed retiring Governor Lincoln Chafee.  She has company from Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Clay Pell (grandson of legendary former Sen. Clayborne Pell and the husband of Olympic Silver Medalist Michelle Kwan), though I think she might be the one to beat in the primary.  Both Coakley and Raimondo would be favorites to win the general election if they advanced from the primary.

Lastly, in Maryland Lt. Governor Anthony Brown is fending off primary opposition to succeed Martin O'Malley (who is busy asking everyone in the country if he'd be a good president if Hillary didn't run). Brown has had some issues in the primary (it appears closer than expected), but my gut is saying he takes the primary and the general election in this very strongly blue state.  With Deval Patrick retiring, Brown would be the only African-American governor in the country were he to be elected.

Democratic Held Seats

As a whole, the Democrats have done pretty well in their own backyard this year.  Neil Abercrombie (HI), Peter Shumlin (VT), Mark Dayton (MN), John Kitzhaber (OR), Jerry Brown (CA), Maggie Hassan (NH), and Andrew Cuomo (NY) all seem pretty much assured a second (or in Shumlin's case, third) term.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

The only Democratic governors with any sorts of issues right now are John Hickenlooper (CO), Dan Malloy (CT), and Pat Quinn (IL).  Hickenlooper, thanks to tougher gun laws in his state, has been teetering around very bad approval ratings, but he has the blessing of both a purplish blue state (the state has gone Democratic in the past three elections) and a messy Republican primary, which pits Secretary of State Scott Gessler against arch-conservative former Rep. Tom Tancredo.  Tancredo will surely gain support from the hard right and the money that comes with it, and his views on immigration are Steve King-level, which will help Hickenlooper amongst the state's growing Latino community.

Dan Malloy I list as competitive because everyone else says it is, though I'm just not quite there yet.  Frequently milquetoast Democratic governors and senators in New England gain mediocre approval ratings just to see 8-10 point wins on Election Day.  While Malloy didn't do well in 2010 (winning by the skin-of-his-teeth), I have yet to see the sorts of dynamics that would cost him in a rematch against Ambassador Tom Foley.

Finally, there's Pat Quinn, the Illinois wunderkind who somehow always comes out on top despite no one really liking him.  After losing his 1998 primary to be Lieutenant Governor by less than 1500 votes, he went on to two successful terms in the office, and then took over for Rod Blagojevich after he resigned (and eventually went to jail).  That would have doomed most candidates, such a close association, but Quinn just kept trucking, winning by less than one-percent in both the primary and the general elections despite the polls painting a different picture.  Quinn is in a tight race with a number of high profile Republicans, including his 2010 opponent State Sen. Bill Brady, but he's proven through the years that you shouldn't count him out.

We're going to leave it there for now.  Tomorrow, we'll dive into the Republican-held seats and the Democratic pick-up opportunities.  Until then-which of these races do you think is going to be the closest (for symmetry's sake, my money's on Illinois, even though Colorado makes more sense)?